Weekly structural research · NYSE · Industrials

MEC Stage Analysis

Mayville Engineering Co Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 15.11Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Structural failure

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -78−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 87/100directional strength

Maturity 34/100lifecycle context

Confidence 90/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -13.5%USD 17.47 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	15.11	24.42	-36.36	2076936	Rotation Down	-78	87
2026-10-02	16.44	24.47	-29.99	3503683	Rotation Down	-48	74
2026-09-25	17.16	24.56	-27.05	2730138	Rotation Down	-47	73
2026-09-18	17.20	24.69	-25.88	3679970	Rotation Down	-51	75
2026-09-11	19.10	24.86	-17.72	1407997	Rotation Down	-38	70
2026-09-04	19.66	24.95	-15.79	1959226	Rotation Down	-39	69
2026-08-28	19.32	25.02	-17.03	2492383	Rotation Down	-42	63
2026-08-21	21.73	25.03	-6.10	3059306	Deceleration	-36	43
2026-08-14	24.09	24.91	3.05	2872289	Deceleration	-8	27
2026-08-07	24.18	24.73	4.15	4652376	Deceleration	3	21
2026-07-31	25.67	24.54	15.16	3387660	Deceleration	23	22
2026-07-24	30.29	24.32	38.05	2539822	Upward Expansion	44	33
2026-07-17	30.92	23.94	41.51	2806671	Upward Expansion	61	51
2026-07-10	33.72	23.49	53.65	1779879	Upward Expansion	66	65
2026-07-03	33.55	22.99	56.88	2649285	Upward Expansion	68	82
2026-06-26	37.00	22.42	78.90	2984385	Upward Expansion	83	93
2026-06-19	35.68	21.75	71.22	2366757	Upward Expansion	86	94
2026-06-12	35.48	21.08	74.31	3785859	Upward Expansion	94	96
2026-06-05	33.25	20.44	66.99	4979033	Upward Expansion	94	93
2026-05-29	26.85	19.88	33.35	1550086	Upward Expansion	76	83
2026-05-22	25.45	19.58	29.02	4125989	Upward Expansion	70	81
2026-05-15	25.29	19.28	30.06	2085928	Upward Expansion	76	84
2026-05-08	27.20	18.86	40.97	1542188	Upward Expansion	91	88
2026-05-01	22.24	18.38	18.89	743551	Upward Expansion	69	65
2026-04-24	21.96	18.10	19.12	392449	Deceleration	58	45
2026-04-17	21.02	17.82	15.30	605714	Deceleration	49	29
2026-04-10	20.48	17.59	17.94	604918	Deceleration	28	18
2026-04-03	18.21	17.38	9.14	621143	Deceleration	2	25
2026-03-27	17.70	17.27	9.94	587584	Deceleration	4	26
2026-03-20	16.64	17.17	1.30	773808	Deceleration	3	21
2026-03-13	16.67	17.10	-0.30	906539	Upward Expansion	18	13
2026-03-06	19.18	17.02	12.94	1805139	Upward Expansion	61	48
2026-02-27	21.00	16.84	21.51	613351	Upward Expansion	65	81
2026-02-20	22.12	16.69	27.85	467124	Upward Expansion	76	85
2026-02-13	21.94	16.48	28.90	689143	Upward Expansion	79	81
2026-02-06	21.65	16.26	26.19	927823	Upward Expansion	82	72
2026-01-30	19.60	16.08	14.40	775247	Upward Expansion	67	45
2026-01-23	18.39	15.99	7.91	430042	Upward Expansion	57	41
2026-01-16	18.66	15.91	9.08	1110838	Upward Expansion	59	50
2026-01-09	18.41	15.83	7.27	818431	Upward Expansion	59	54
2026-01-02	18.95	15.70	12.26	718387	Upward Expansion	68	69
2025-12-26	19.11	15.57	12.15	480578	Upward Expansion	73	66
2025-12-19	17.33	15.45	3.23	1235682	Upward Expansion	57	49
2025-12-12	18.62	15.38	10.86	828596	Upward Expansion	74	46
2025-12-05	16.50	15.28	-2.44	641741	Rotation Up	55	34
2025-11-28	16.99	15.22	0.45	622174	Rotation Up	36	40
2025-11-21	15.61	15.10	-4.56	2061068	Rotation Up	19	46
2025-11-14	16.04	15.00	-4.19	874652	Balance	29	40
2025-11-07	16.55	14.87	-1.40	1593664	Balance	50	42
2025-10-31	17.82	14.74	4.09	1031942	Balance	57	34
2025-10-24	16.52	14.57	-3.70	2392171	Rotation Down	11	10
2025-10-17	12.58	14.47	-25.84	682430	Rotation Down	-45	58
2025-10-10	12.96	14.52	-23.25	514451	Rotation Down	-41	49
2025-10-03	13.71	14.56	-21.75	597525	Balance	-31	34
2025-09-26	13.57	14.58	-22.54	708295	Balance	-25	23
2025-09-19	14.31	14.63	-19.57	800861	Balance	-15	16
2025-09-12	14.20	14.66	-20.00	493960	Balance	-18	20
2025-09-05	14.87	14.70	-15.69	386318	Balance	-10	15
2025-08-29	14.60	14.74	-17.61	502054	Balance	-11	20
2025-08-22	14.43	14.78	-19.28	526747	Balance	-11	16
2025-08-15	14.45	14.84	-19.64	847153	Balance	18	15
2025-08-08	13.68	14.88	-23.86	1360914	Upward Expansion	13	12
2025-08-01	16.40	14.92	-7.36	754623	Upward Expansion	59	34
2025-07-25	16.10	14.89	-11.67	380599	Upward Expansion	57	36
2025-07-18	15.30	14.87	-15.36	490246	Rotation Up	56	43
2025-07-11	16.18	14.90	-10.52	353744	Rotation Up	32	50
2025-07-04	16.80	14.93	-7.69	426799	Rotation Up	45	44
2025-06-27	16.19	14.95	-9.70	909102	Rotation Up	30	27
2025-06-20	15.98	14.97	-8.06	710664	Rotation Up	31	32
2025-06-13	14.59	15.00	-16.32	504449	Rotation Up	18	24
2025-06-06	15.00	15.08	-14.63	579725	Rotation Up	21	32
2025-05-30	15.76	15.15	-9.18	434848	Downward Expansion	27	35
2025-05-23	15.16	15.34	-11.32	581283	Downward Expansion	-10	24
2025-05-16	15.59	15.50	-11.31	624789	Downward Expansion	-12	17
2025-05-09	14.75	15.67	-11.84	635976	Downward Expansion	-42	33
2025-05-02	13.32	15.88	-21.01	507200	Downward Expansion	-65	56
2025-04-25	12.51	16.10	-23.84	566528	Downward Expansion	-69	75
2025-04-18	12.25	16.40	-22.25	446010	Downward Expansion	-79	85
2025-04-11	12.73	16.66	-20.61	468852	Downward Expansion	-76	80
2025-04-04	12.57	16.87	-17.32	415917	Downward Expansion	-84	82
2025-03-28	13.53	17.07	-19.18	412364	Downward Expansion	-77	73
2025-03-21	13.99	17.26	-17.84	563351	Downward Expansion	-74	69
2025-03-14	14.35	17.44	-15.44	920488	Downward Expansion	-69	60
2025-03-07	14.36	17.61	-17.31	936903	Downward Expansion	-74	61
2025-02-28	14.95	17.76	-16.60	391464	Downward Expansion	-68	66
2025-02-21	15.07	17.85	-16.71	197484	Downward Expansion	-68	58
2025-02-14	15.51	17.98	-15.55	261177	Downward Expansion	-51	40
2025-02-07	16.01	18.09	-11.49	196766	Downward Expansion	-46	36
2025-01-31	15.85	18.13	-12.45	363683	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2025-01-24	16.25	18.15	-11.10	270497	Downward Expansion	-60	50
2025-01-17	15.77	18.16	-12.30	462536	Downward Expansion	-62	66
2025-01-10	14.68	18.16	-16.05	498387	Downward Expansion	-74	75
2025-01-03	15.47	18.22	-13.44	522975	Rotation Down	-68	61
2024-12-27	15.69	18.25	-12.82	339047	Rotation Down	-42	46
2024-12-20	16.19	18.26	-9.71	758508	Rotation Down	-39	41
2024-12-13	17.17	18.24	-6.16	433000	Rotation Down	-22	44
2024-12-06	17.14	18.18	-6.95	504690	Rotation Down	-22	49
2024-11-29	16.85	18.15	-7.77	242288	Upward Expansion	-27	37
2024-11-22	16.99	18.05	-5.92	528420	Upward Expansion	-24	30
2024-11-15	16.81	17.95	-5.39	924026	Upward Expansion	-6	16
2024-11-08	17.15	17.86	-5.50	1798496	Upward Expansion	15	10
2024-11-01	21.49	17.74	24.23	693120	Upward Expansion	68	47
2024-10-25	19.99	17.48	14.64	379471	Upward Expansion	58	43
2024-10-18	20.74	17.29	18.42	282441	Upward Expansion	64	58
2024-10-11	21.00	17.07	21.52	529973	Upward Expansion	68	61
2024-10-04	20.05	16.80	18.05	553336	Upward Expansion	61	49
2024-09-27	21.46	16.56	27.39	742530	Upward Expansion	81	57
2024-09-20	19.94	16.26	19.95	546822	Upward Expansion	71	49
2024-09-13	19.22	15.99	17.97	423534	Upward Expansion	64	47
2024-09-06	18.37	15.76	17.96	475570	Upward Expansion	62	51
2024-08-30	19.31	15.56	19.58	480150	Upward Expansion	67	58
2024-08-23	19.42	15.33	21.15	547533	Upward Expansion	71	59
2024-08-16	19.52	15.13	24.21	618730	Upward Expansion	77	69
2024-08-09	18.86	14.93	25.49	576181	Upward Expansion	72	74
2024-08-02	17.56	14.75	17.45	666120	Upward Expansion	64	72
2024-07-26	19.02	14.61	24.99	703795	Upward Expansion	81	84
2024-07-19	18.63	14.46	22.09	760811	Upward Expansion	84	73
2024-07-12	17.43	14.31	12.53	555935	Upward Expansion	75	55
2024-07-05	16.25	14.19	6.39	241856	Upward Expansion	61	49
2024-06-28	16.66	14.08	11.42	1039993	Upward Expansion	71	60
2024-06-21	15.76	13.95	5.50	380912	Upward Expansion	64	64
2024-06-14	16.45	13.86	10.62	496900	Upward Expansion	72	72
2024-06-07	16.41	13.74	12.01	469902	Upward Expansion	74	75
2024-05-31	16.02	13.58	10.42	288694	Upward Expansion	73	77
2024-05-24	15.39	13.45	5.72	564994	Upward Expansion	66	70
2024-05-17	15.50	13.29	6.42	472543	Upward Expansion	70	67
2024-05-10	16.24	13.16	13.22	780509	Upward Expansion	81	63
2024-05-03	13.89	13.01	-1.07	229842	Upward Expansion	52	30
2024-04-26	14.06	12.92	0.94	308625	Upward Expansion	56	33
2024-04-19	13.88	12.82	2.15	222217	Upward Expansion	53	48
2024-04-12	13.57	12.72	-3.29	451188	Upward Expansion	54	53
2024-04-05	13.72	12.64	-3.92	481847	Upward Expansion	54	52
2024-03-29	14.33	12.55	-1.01	197414	Deceleration	54	42
2024-03-22	14.19	12.48	-2.27	220153	Deceleration	50	29
2024-03-15	12.85	12.38	-9.93	282103	Deceleration	20	12
2024-03-08	13.02	12.34	-9.32	240867	Deceleration	9	14
2024-03-01	12.47	12.32	-14.03	197579	Deceleration	-16	22
2024-02-23	11.68	12.31	-19.45	132436	Deceleration	-27	28
2024-02-16	12.19	12.32	-15.62	198336	Deceleration	10	16
2024-02-09	12.47	12.31	-14.88	218848	Deceleration	20	16
2024-02-02	12.47	12.26	-14.44	240260	Deceleration	28	16
2024-01-26	13.49	12.22	-6.97	183519	Upward Expansion	40	23
2024-01-19	13.39	12.19	-7.36	116893	Upward Expansion	53	34
2024-01-12	13.50	12.19	-5.86	131610	Upward Expansion	57	40
2024-01-05	13.45	12.21	-4.90	270539	Upward Expansion	61	57
2023-12-29	14.42	12.25	0.04	169962	Rotation Up	73	70
2023-12-22	14.05	12.19	-2.38	271536	Rotation Up	44	57
2023-12-15	13.83	12.13	-3.32	384523	Rotation Up	44	57
2023-12-08	13.10	12.09	-6.61	186990	Rotation Up	37	51
2023-12-01	12.83	12.02	-8.60	237087	Balance	22	41
2023-11-24	12.93	11.92	-7.34	125096	Balance	25	31
2023-11-17	12.95	11.90	-6.21	242237	Balance	24	17
2023-11-10	11.41	11.86	-15.46	296582	Balance	-29	13
2023-11-03	12.13	11.90	-8.98	449405	Downward Expansion	-21	12
2023-10-27	10.73	11.94	-14.68	255974	Downward Expansion	-48	24
2023-10-20	11.65	12.08	-9.18	398975	Downward Expansion	-37	20

Price vs TrendBelow-38.1%

Trend directionFalling-0.5%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-13.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-116.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-36.4%

Relative strength directionWeakening-90.0%

Price momentumNegative-26.2%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.06×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-78 / ±100

-40.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

87 /100

+17.2 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MEC Directional State ↗ MEC Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance8

Rotation Up13

Upward Expansion21

Deceleration38

Rotation Down79

Downward Expansion99

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 9%Upward Expansion 44%Deceleration 12%Rotation Down 10%Downward Expansion 15%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-08-28	2026-10-09	Developing	-21.8%
Deceleration	2026-07-31	2026-08-21	New	-15.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-01	2026-07-24	Established	+36.2%
Deceleration	2026-03-20	2026-04-24	Developing	+32.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-12	2026-03-13	Established	-10.5%
Rotation Up	2025-11-21	2025-12-05	New	+5.7%
Balance	2025-10-31	2025-11-14	New	-10.0%
Rotation Down	2025-10-10	2025-10-24	New	+27.5%
Balance	2025-08-15	2025-10-03	Developing	-5.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-25	2025-08-08	New	-15.0%
Rotation Up	2025-06-06	2025-07-18	Developing	+2.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-10	2025-05-30	Established	+7.4%
Rotation Down	2024-12-06	2025-01-03	Developing	-9.7%
Upward Expansion	2024-04-05	2024-11-29	Extended	+22.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing63

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution43

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 100/100
Current Relative Strength: -36.36
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -26.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -41.1%
Industrials regime cohort: 100th percentile37 in cohort

Test MEC trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.73×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.06×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 6

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MEC Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 16.42falling

Slow Activity USD 23.89falling

Trend Reference USD 24.42-38.1% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 17.47-13.5% close margin

Structural low USD 14.36shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +21.6%

Annualized volatility +62.2%

From structural high -61.0%

From structural low +23.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	8	-1.2%-23.5% to +33.9%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-3.0%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	+6.7%-16.2% to +42.1%	+75.0%	+25.0%	+1.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	4	-4.2%-32.3% to +58.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-7.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	-3.7%-51.5% to +48.2%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-17.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MEC Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map