Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Market

TUGN Stage Analysis

STF TACTICAL GROWTH & INCOME ETF

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close USD 27.93Tenure DevelopingBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 60−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 32/100directional strength

Maturity 29/100lifecycle context

Confidence 57/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +31.5%USD 21.24 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	27.93	26.24	-3.23	200787	Deceleration	60	32
2026-09-18	27.21	26.10	-2.74	112512	Deceleration	24	14
2026-09-11	27.09	25.98	-2.42	109107	Deceleration	35	18
2026-09-04	27.25	25.85	-2.49	98550	Deceleration	39	25
2026-08-28	27.05	25.73	-2.96	100962	Deceleration	39	28
2026-08-21	26.91	25.64	-3.20	228356	Deceleration	39	26
2026-08-14	27.90	25.56	-2.27	142775	Deceleration	62	32
2026-08-07	27.63	25.43	-2.19	106469	Deceleration	46	24
2026-07-31	26.49	25.33	-1.56	96915	Deceleration	34	20
2026-07-24	26.28	25.25	-1.87	149759	Deceleration	41	27
2026-07-17	26.97	25.19	-0.97	140981	Upward Expansion	47	36
2026-07-10	27.83	25.09	-2.12	133825	Upward Expansion	65	50
2026-07-03	27.35	24.97	-2.16	130468	Upward Expansion	51	46
2026-06-26	27.09	24.87	-2.34	156502	Upward Expansion	62	53
2026-06-19	28.04	24.78	-3.54	77710	Upward Expansion	73	64
2026-06-12	27.58	24.62	-2.68	114252	Upward Expansion	68	64
2026-06-05	27.10	24.50	-2.26	102405	Upward Expansion	67	80
2026-05-29	28.26	24.41	-2.74	85151	Upward Expansion	87	94
2026-05-22	27.48	24.29	-2.78	110046	Upward Expansion	83	93
2026-05-15	26.91	24.19	-3.70	439595	Upward Expansion	82	92
2026-05-08	27.03	24.10	-3.68	79025	Rotation Up	90	92
2026-05-01	25.68	23.98	-3.54	98957	Rotation Up	40	47
2026-04-24	25.44	23.93	-3.03	77782	Downward Expansion	37	38
2026-04-17	25.08	23.87	-2.37	187882	Downward Expansion	-3	8
2026-04-10	23.83	23.84	-1.60	369296	Downward Expansion	-50	36
2026-04-03	22.84	23.83	-1.56	52948	Downward Expansion	-63	68
2026-03-27	21.95	23.83	-1.66	65743	Downward Expansion	-84	79
2026-03-20	22.64	23.86	-1.93	324523	Rotation Down	-76	68
2026-03-13	23.06	23.87	-2.12	55300	Rotation Down	-42	50
2026-03-06	23.34	23.86	-1.96	50719	Balance	-35	47
2026-02-27	23.61	23.85	-2.10	46612	Balance	-17	34
2026-02-20	23.58	23.79	-2.55	44192	Balance	-17	24
2026-02-13	23.37	23.76	-2.38	62527	Balance	-1	9
2026-02-06	23.76	23.73	-2.06	182885	Balance	21	9
2026-01-30	24.21	23.67	-2.19	52073	Upward Expansion	36	20
2026-01-23	24.37	23.61	-1.75	89088	Upward Expansion	49	25
2026-01-16	24.22	23.53	-2.13	128051	Upward Expansion	47	26
2026-01-09	24.39	23.42	-2.33	109463	Upward Expansion	53	30
2026-01-02	24.09	23.31	-1.46	212781	Upward Expansion	49	28
2025-12-26	24.48	23.21	-1.60	67160	Upward Expansion	58	35
2025-12-19	24.16	23.08	-1.70	73691	Deceleration	42	28
2025-12-12	24.09	22.95	-1.48	149277	Deceleration	39	23
2025-12-05	24.44	22.84	-1.95	70465	Deceleration	50	29
2025-11-28	24.24	22.67	-1.81	105761	Upward Expansion	46	28
2025-11-21	23.38	22.51	-0.64	82654	Upward Expansion	46	36
2025-11-14	24.09	22.36	-0.75	449181	Upward Expansion	61	53
2025-11-07	24.19	22.15	-0.51	95987	Upward Expansion	64	60
2025-10-31	24.87	21.95	-0.84	130807	Upward Expansion	84	70
2025-10-24	24.48	21.68	-0.51	147977	Upward Expansion	80	66
2025-10-17	24.02	21.49	-0.21	541372	Upward Expansion	72	64
2025-10-10	23.44	21.33	-0.22	118621	Upward Expansion	67	66
2025-10-03	24.11	21.19	0.34	45690	Upward Expansion	78	86
2025-09-26	23.90	21.04	0.72	203504	Upward Expansion	78	80
2025-09-19	23.99	20.91	0.68	270203	Upward Expansion	86	72
2025-09-12	23.49	20.81	0.77	139715	Upward Expansion	81	70
2025-09-05	23.04	20.74	0.69	39713	Upward Expansion	71	66
2025-08-29	22.79	20.67	0.62	31497	Upward Expansion	66	66
2025-08-22	22.87	20.60	0.73	49866	Upward Expansion	72	67
2025-08-15	22.94	20.54	0.17	272633	Upward Expansion	80	86
2025-08-08	22.82	20.46	0.17	49673	Upward Expansion	81	84
2025-08-01	22.00	20.37	0.19	46100	Upward Expansion	67	86
2025-07-25	22.56	20.32	0.44	44001	Upward Expansion	78	91
2025-07-18	22.40	20.26	0.59	51736	Upward Expansion	78	91
2025-07-11	22.16	20.19	0.71	413122	Upward Expansion	77	88
2025-07-04	22.24	20.15	0.69	27820	Rotation Up	81	81
2025-06-27	21.91	20.10	0.67	192415	Rotation Up	51	63
2025-06-20	21.00	20.03	0.43	34412	Rotation Up	29	53
2025-06-13	21.01	20.00	0.40	113811	Rotation Up	30	55
2025-06-06	21.11	19.95	0.30	162265	Rotation Up	34	48
2025-05-30	20.72	19.92	0.44	20112	Balance	27	33
2025-05-23	20.26	19.87	0.07	50435	Balance	7	23
2025-05-16	20.69	19.83	-0.25	140583	Downward Expansion	-4	18
2025-05-09	19.38	19.79	-0.18	170238	Downward Expansion	-38	21
2025-05-02	19.40	19.78	-0.31	288030	Downward Expansion	-45	32
2025-04-25	18.80	19.77	-0.11	61778	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2025-04-18	17.80	19.78	0.59	29410	Downward Expansion	-70	78
2025-04-11	18.19	19.81	0.41	81620	Rotation Down	-66	78
2025-04-04	17.00	19.82	0.83	132699	Rotation Down	-65	81
2025-03-28	18.76	19.84	0.22	61598	Rotation Down	-38	63
2025-03-21	19.12	19.83	-0.29	31076	Upward Expansion	-33	41
2025-03-14	19.10	19.80	-0.20	82672	Upward Expansion	-14	25
2025-03-07	19.59	19.78	-0.27	51775	Upward Expansion	13	9
2025-02-28	20.28	19.72	-0.16	51511	Upward Expansion	54	35
2025-02-21	20.97	19.65	-0.29	45623	Upward Expansion	61	48
2025-02-14	21.38	19.58	-0.71	81083	Upward Expansion	77	66
2025-02-07	20.81	19.50	-0.63	18784	Upward Expansion	61	46
2025-01-31	20.75	19.47	-0.88	33161	Upward Expansion	60	42
2025-01-24	20.95	19.45	-1.43	27706	Upward Expansion	69	47
2025-01-17	20.64	19.40	-1.53	34410	Upward Expansion	63	43
2025-01-10	20.12	19.36	-1.38	36733	Upward Expansion	58	44
2025-01-03	20.57	19.34	-1.52	49588	Upward Expansion	64	57
2024-12-27	20.62	19.28	-2.15	33739	Upward Expansion	68	80
2024-12-20	20.40	19.20	-2.39	53076	Upward Expansion	65	82
2024-12-13	20.84	19.13	-2.66	42631	Upward Expansion	84	92
2024-12-06	20.70	19.04	-2.68	27495	Upward Expansion	84	84
2024-11-29	20.08	18.95	-2.65	50591	Upward Expansion	72	75
2024-11-22	19.93	18.87	-2.73	41615	Upward Expansion	70	69
2024-11-15	19.57	18.79	-2.81	211699	Upward Expansion	61	63
2024-11-08	20.12	18.70	-3.63	44434	Upward Expansion	83	74
2024-11-01	19.14	18.63	-3.41	48929	Upward Expansion	58	55
2024-10-25	19.34	18.59	-4.08	23387	Upward Expansion	63	59
2024-10-18	19.27	18.56	-4.46	28370	Deceleration	61	51
2024-10-11	19.28	18.52	-4.36	27295	Deceleration	50	36
2024-10-04	19.01	18.47	-4.75	20800	Deceleration	43	29
2024-09-27	18.93	18.44	-5.19	31354	Deceleration	35	16
2024-09-20	18.80	18.42	-5.09	36362	Deceleration	7	10
2024-09-13	18.52	18.39	-5.24	31898	Deceleration	-13	16
2024-09-06	17.51	18.37	-5.28	45356	Deceleration	-35	32
2024-08-30	18.43	18.39	-6.26	31822	Deceleration	-13	21
2024-08-23	18.51	18.37	-6.76	54590	Deceleration	-15	27
2024-08-16	18.35	18.34	-6.80	463441	Deceleration	-4	25
2024-08-09	17.90	18.31	-4.42	59497	Deceleration	3	23
2024-08-02	18.10	18.29	-3.17	61344	Upward Expansion	18	18
2024-07-26	18.74	18.24	-2.95	78700	Upward Expansion	52	44
2024-07-19	19.16	18.19	-3.40	51157	Upward Expansion	66	65
2024-07-12	19.93	18.11	-3.62	39573	Upward Expansion	77	89
2024-07-05	19.97	18.01	-3.85	48037	Upward Expansion	84	93
2024-06-28	19.44	17.89	-3.19	372191	Upward Expansion	75	87
2024-06-21	19.52	17.79	-2.97	32732	Upward Expansion	84	88
2024-06-14	19.40	17.68	-3.50	42431	Upward Expansion	87	84
2024-06-07	18.81	17.56	-3.32	68397	Upward Expansion	77	74
2024-05-31	18.29	17.46	-3.58	26118	Upward Expansion	61	57
2024-05-24	18.37	17.36	-4.81	48938	Balance	56	45
2024-05-17	18.22	17.25	-4.48	80872	Balance	49	26
2024-05-10	17.84	17.15	-4.59	51463	Balance	15	18
2024-05-03	17.67	17.07	-4.24	60573	Balance	13	19
2024-04-26	17.56	17.00	-4.00	41001	Upward Expansion	17	18
2024-04-19	17.00	16.93	-3.54	36984	Upward Expansion	13	13
2024-04-12	17.90	16.87	-4.08	43998	Upward Expansion	47	40
2024-04-05	18.06	16.80	-3.86	66967	Upward Expansion	59	47
2024-03-29	18.20	16.73	-4.04	55803	Upward Expansion	65	52
2024-03-22	18.27	16.66	-4.33	108095	Upward Expansion	72	59
2024-03-15	17.81	16.58	-4.07	44086	Upward Expansion	62	59
2024-03-08	17.98	16.51	-4.45	26421	Upward Expansion	65	63
2024-03-01	18.27	16.44	-4.54	34725	Upward Expansion	79	70
2024-02-23	18.01	16.37	-4.15	48595	Upward Expansion	72	74
2024-02-16	17.78	16.31	-4.16	35786	Upward Expansion	68	85
2024-02-09	18.09	16.25	-4.11	128413	Upward Expansion	83	92
2024-02-02	17.84	16.19	-3.75	58303	Upward Expansion	82	91
2024-01-26	17.70	16.12	-3.45	39681	Upward Expansion	84	88
2024-01-19	17.58	16.06	-3.64	26079	Upward Expansion	86	86
2024-01-12	17.17	16.00	-3.44	37423	Upward Expansion	77	84
2024-01-05	16.66	15.96	-3.48	24411	Upward Expansion	67	82
2023-12-29	17.08	15.92	-4.38	17340	Upward Expansion	79	89
2023-12-22	17.04	15.87	-4.53	22340	Upward Expansion	84	87
2023-12-15	16.89	15.81	-4.69	31628	Upward Expansion	84	81
2023-12-08	16.40	15.74	-4.59	20218	Balance	62	66
2023-12-01	16.19	15.67	-5.48	30760	Balance	53	44
2023-11-24	16.22	15.60	-5.32	80752	Balance	45	34
2023-11-17	16.04	—	—	60043	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-10	15.76	—	—	16607	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-03	15.34	—	—	28120	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-27	14.84	—	—	29027	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-20	15.23	—	—	38290	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-13	15.61	—	—	108636	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-06	15.60	—	—	97494	Not yet classified	—	—

Price vs TrendAbove+6.4%

Trend directionRising+4.2%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+31.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-2.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-3.2%

Relative strength directionWeakening-0.9%

Price momentumPositive+27.2%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.79×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

60 / ±100

+21.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

32 /100

+4.8 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

TUGN Directional State ↗ TUGN Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance54

Rotation Up45

Upward Expansion71

Deceleration65

Rotation Down20

Downward Expansion3

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 149 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 9%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 60%Deceleration 16%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 7%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-07-24	2026-09-25	Developing	+6.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-15	2026-07-17	Developing	+0.2%
Rotation Up	2026-05-01	2026-05-08	New	+5.2%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-27	2026-04-24	Developing	+15.9%
Rotation Down	2026-03-13	2026-03-20	New	-1.8%
Balance	2026-02-06	2026-03-06	Developing	-1.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-26	2026-01-30	Developing	-1.1%
Deceleration	2025-12-05	2025-12-19	New	-1.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-11	2025-11-28	Established	+9.4%
Rotation Up	2025-06-06	2025-07-04	Developing	+5.3%
Balance	2025-05-23	2025-05-30	New	+2.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-18	2025-05-16	Developing	+16.2%
Rotation Down	2025-03-28	2025-04-11	New	-3.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-25	2025-03-21	Established	-1.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing12

Stage 2 · Advancing90

Stage 3 · Distribution70

Stage 4 · Declining10

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 47/100
Current Relative Strength: -3.23
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +27.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -5.1%
Sector regime cohort: 27th percentile186 in cohort

Test TUGN trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.42×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.79×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+62.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore TUGN Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 27.42rising

Slow Activity USD 27.00rising

Trend Reference USD 26.24+6.4% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 21.24+31.5% close margin

Structural low USD 21.69shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +3.2%

Annualized volatility +18.8%

From structural high -3.0%

From structural low +28.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	6	+0.9%-2.2% to +8.5%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-0.1%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	2	+4.0%-4.5% to +12.4%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-1.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	+13.6%+10.9% to +16.3%	+100.0%	+100.0%	-1.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	+27.5%+27.5% to +27.5%	+100.0%	+100.0%	-0.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

TUGN Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map