Weekly structural research · SHH · Industrials

600822 Stage Analysis

Shanghai Material Trading Co., Ltd.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CNY 8.92Tenure NewBenchmark 000001.SS

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 19−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 29/100directional strength

Maturity 10/100lifecycle context

Confidence 71/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -10.6%CNY 9.98 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	8.92	9.00	-6.63	24141430	Balance	19	29
2026-09-25	9.08	9.05	-6.50	57827660	Balance	3	24
2026-09-18	9.40	9.12	-4.56	60608996	Balance	15	26
2026-09-11	9.08	9.18	-7.79	41563218	Downward Expansion	5	15
2026-09-04	8.46	9.24	-15.60	3362206	Downward Expansion	-33	21
2026-08-28	8.60	9.33	-15.27	3296600	Downward Expansion	-38	25
2026-08-21	8.30	9.44	-17.92	2037700	Downward Expansion	-42	32
2026-08-14	8.44	9.54	-17.69	2227800	Downward Expansion	-47	41
2026-08-07	8.16	9.63	-21.35	2574500	Downward Expansion	-51	47
2026-07-31	8.25	9.72	-19.01	2237003	Downward Expansion	-63	57
2026-07-24	7.78	9.81	-24.01	2092598	Downward Expansion	-76	68
2026-07-17	8.33	9.91	-18.90	7929405	Downward Expansion	-67	78
2026-07-10	7.96	9.98	-27.47	3953000	Downward Expansion	-73	86
2026-07-03	8.03	10.08	-28.18	3076900	Downward Expansion	-75	89
2026-06-26	7.77	10.19	-30.66	3127012	Downward Expansion	-88	94
2026-06-19	8.39	10.30	-26.75	14139282	Downward Expansion	-78	90
2026-06-12	8.51	10.40	-25.08	2242719	Downward Expansion	-80	89
2026-06-05	8.80	10.50	-22.93	2488209	Downward Expansion	-77	84
2026-05-29	8.80	10.59	-24.20	16610804	Downward Expansion	-80	74
2026-05-22	9.34	10.70	-20.94	12301301	Downward Expansion	-71	56
2026-05-15	9.60	10.75	-19.64	16864912	Downward Expansion	-64	42
2026-05-08	10.02	10.80	-17.46	9860951	Downward Expansion	-55	39
2026-05-01	9.93	10.83	-17.36	16483309	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2026-04-24	9.93	10.87	-17.13	16958192	Downward Expansion	-60	45
2026-04-17	9.82	10.97	-17.68	34247726	Downward Expansion	-65	56
2026-04-10	10.00	11.06	-15.07	11974401	Downward Expansion	-63	67
2026-04-03	9.81	11.14	-14.59	17910904	Downward Expansion	-72	74
2026-03-27	10.17	11.20	-12.41	18892487	Downward Expansion	-65	71
2026-03-20	9.92	11.28	-15.70	14056290	Downward Expansion	-77	71
2026-03-13	10.31	11.35	-15.55	16136200	Balance	-69	55
2026-03-06	10.63	11.41	-13.70	21936705	Balance	-58	36
2026-02-27	11.19	11.46	-10.16	16011891	Balance	-34	19
2026-02-13	11.03	11.50	-9.81	29742578	Balance	-26	12
2026-02-06	10.97	11.65	-10.09	20793424	Downward Expansion	-36	19
2026-01-30	11.04	11.65	-10.81	37761895	Downward Expansion	-29	22
2026-01-23	11.91	11.62	-4.33	78205726	Downward Expansion	-4	13
2026-01-16	11.23	11.56	-9.08	38282608	Downward Expansion	-36	19
2026-01-09	11.33	11.50	-8.83	36180678	Downward Expansion	-50	29
2026-01-02	10.71	11.46	-10.63	13051350	Downward Expansion	-61	59
2025-12-26	10.90	11.44	-9.10	36786197	Downward Expansion	-58	60
2025-12-19	10.88	11.43	-7.76	26444251	Deceleration	-30	45
2025-12-12	10.50	11.42	-11.28	24172861	Deceleration	-43	48
2025-12-05	10.95	11.42	-8.32	22658584	Deceleration	-32	31
2025-11-28	11.30	11.40	-5.34	34258262	Deceleration	-12	12
2025-11-21	11.06	11.39	-6.53	30125940	Deceleration	-10	9
2025-11-14	11.44	11.37	-7.57	27098401	Deceleration	20	12
2025-11-07	11.45	11.30	-8.12	34845541	Deceleration	9	8
2025-10-31	11.63	11.23	-5.72	51624961	Deceleration	8	16
2025-10-24	11.86	11.16	-3.68	105469971	Deceleration	8	22
2025-10-17	10.94	11.08	-8.53	43608128	Deceleration	-2	19
2025-10-10	11.10	11.05	-8.49	18227589	Deceleration	7	11
2025-10-03	11.08	11.01	-8.24	18732522	Deceleration	21	12
2025-09-26	11.12	10.95	-6.54	98522944	Deceleration	29	17
2025-09-19	12.93	10.90	8.98	152722637	Deceleration	58	33
2025-09-12	12.26	10.80	2.27	64510408	Deceleration	41	26
2025-09-05	12.48	10.72	5.93	101733086	Deceleration	44	28
2025-08-29	11.82	10.63	-0.52	70063149	Upward Expansion	41	27
2025-08-22	12.57	10.55	6.98	140256795	Upward Expansion	60	36
2025-08-15	12.00	10.45	6.16	69572759	Upward Expansion	56	40
2025-08-08	12.03	10.37	8.62	60412348	Upward Expansion	63	73
2025-08-01	11.96	10.28	10.64	87084806	Upward Expansion	62	75
2025-07-25	12.62	10.20	15.96	307145225	Upward Expansion	61	74
2025-07-18	15.40	10.13	44.41	343939010	Upward Expansion	86	81
2025-07-11	10.99	9.99	4.82	78920623	Balance	55	23
2025-07-04	10.30	10.04	-0.34	52838574	Balance	-1	8
2025-06-27	9.85	10.07	-3.13	25646204	Balance	-10	14
2025-06-20	9.61	10.15	-3.53	27031602	Balance	-13	12
2025-06-13	9.94	10.24	-0.56	52424264	Balance	3	4
2025-06-06	10.24	10.32	2.34	28153301	Balance	22	17
2025-05-30	10.53	10.31	6.70	47580600	Rotation Up	17	23
2025-05-23	10.52	10.27	6.87	97524914	Rotation Up	18	37
2025-05-16	10.58	10.24	7.10	121667263	Rotation Up	20	30
2025-05-09	10.41	10.18	6.40	102165935	Balance	14	23
2025-05-02	10.88	10.13	13.51	154149738	Balance	24	20
2025-04-25	10.54	10.07	9.69	120024426	Balance	-16	12
2025-04-18	9.23	10.01	-3.24	56239964	Balance	-63	54
2025-04-11	9.41	9.97	-0.20	57764755	Balance	-30	24
2025-04-04	9.51	9.91	-2.61	16807201	Balance	-30	21
2025-03-28	9.64	9.84	-1.82	35856703	Balance	-15	12
2025-03-21	9.97	9.77	0.96	64286503	Deceleration	-11	10
2025-03-14	9.82	9.68	-2.36	28873739	Deceleration	-4	13
2025-03-07	9.48	9.61	-4.71	31195876	Deceleration	9	12
2025-02-28	9.53	9.56	-2.89	37819534	Deceleration	11	11
2025-02-21	9.77	9.53	-2.34	38022833	Deceleration	15	13
2025-02-14	9.90	9.48	-0.27	33124396	Deceleration	4	12
2025-02-07	9.74	9.43	-0.65	17499603	Deceleration	2	14
2025-01-31	9.42	9.36	-2.62	4004500	Deceleration	-1	18
2025-01-24	9.58	9.30	-1.91	29629231	Deceleration	3	19
2025-01-17	9.70	9.24	-0.50	42891805	Deceleration	17	23
2025-01-10	9.25	9.18	-3.13	33160354	Deceleration	14	21
2025-01-03	9.68	9.15	-0.24	38248807	Upward Expansion	33	20
2024-12-27	10.48	9.09	1.76	98604338	Upward Expansion	46	33
2024-12-20	11.34	9.02	10.80	100236010	Upward Expansion	62	51
2024-12-13	12.25	8.93	18.24	140549306	Upward Expansion	70	61
2024-12-06	11.27	8.82	8.19	98441976	Upward Expansion	67	80
2024-11-29	12.33	8.75	20.58	140334467	Upward Expansion	80	91
2024-11-22	12.16	8.65	21.17	302494169	Upward Expansion	86	91
2024-11-15	12.31	8.54	20.44	160027287	Upward Expansion	96	93
2024-11-08	10.18	8.42	-3.77	81887986	Rotation Up	84	80
2024-11-01	9.28	8.43	-7.78	78678973	Rotation Up	40	59
2024-10-25	9.55	8.45	-6.30	55141415	Rotation Up	51	66
2024-10-18	8.87	8.46	-12.32	38817030	Rotation Up	25	46
2024-10-11	8.72	8.49	-13.07	71357142	Balance	19	28
2024-10-04	9.23	8.54	-11.78	25819272	Balance	14	23
2024-09-27	8.58	8.55	-11.87	55422396	Downward Expansion	-16	11
2024-09-20	8.05	8.58	-7.25	44297376	Downward Expansion	-51	31
2024-09-13	7.58	8.63	-11.99	61866629	Downward Expansion	-58	55
2024-09-06	7.58	8.67	-14.50	22973976	Downward Expansion	-59	62
2024-08-30	7.41	8.72	-19.19	17256085	Downward Expansion	-66	58
2024-08-23	7.37	8.89	-20.59	14844087	Downward Expansion	-68	42
2024-08-16	7.73	8.94	-18.07	18108400	Downward Expansion	-50	26
2024-08-09	7.93	9.01	-16.11	36555401	Downward Expansion	-43	23
2024-08-02	8.55	9.07	-11.52	85237859	Downward Expansion	-38	21
2024-07-26	8.44	9.12	-12.80	88949328	Downward Expansion	-46	33
2024-07-19	8.33	9.19	-17.26	108266568	Downward Expansion	-61	47
2024-07-12	7.69	9.32	-23.96	16578264	Downward Expansion	-69	70
2024-07-05	7.66	9.45	-24.42	12855772	Downward Expansion	-71	69
2024-06-28	7.82	9.60	-24.07	19411171	Downward Expansion	-70	71
2024-06-21	7.84	9.70	-25.44	11452405	Downward Expansion	-74	74
2024-06-14	8.24	9.81	-23.34	12711899	Downward Expansion	-66	68
2024-06-07	8.03	9.88	-25.80	38649812	Downward Expansion	-74	68
2024-05-31	8.35	9.97	-23.75	22612437	Downward Expansion	-72	65
2024-05-24	8.70	10.05	-20.60	32422752	Downward Expansion	-65	59
2024-05-17	8.95	10.11	-19.99	22413164	Downward Expansion	-58	56
2024-05-10	9.07	10.18	-18.83	39966011	Downward Expansion	-56	56
2024-05-03	9.18	10.26	-16.35	32192221	Balance	-51	37
2024-04-26	9.07	10.33	-16.64	35629756	Balance	-50	26
2024-04-19	8.77	10.42	-18.55	78827158	Balance	-55	25
2024-04-12	10.32	10.51	-2.49	140690490	Balance	-26	12
2024-04-05	10.03	10.57	-6.30	41667975	Downward Expansion	-32	16
2024-03-29	9.56	10.62	-9.51	57179085	Downward Expansion	-39	18
2024-03-22	9.99	10.71	-5.34	77028592	Downward Expansion	-36	18
2024-03-15	10.19	10.79	-3.32	143915288	Downward Expansion	-49	26
2024-03-08	9.40	10.90	-10.17	59518827	Downward Expansion	-53	42
2024-03-01	9.52	11.02	-8.19	121985479	Downward Expansion	-54	40
2024-02-23	9.55	11.13	-6.91	122687923	Downward Expansion	-52	28
2024-02-09	8.69	11.28	-10.87	92387652	Downward Expansion	-66	37
2024-02-02	9.25	11.45	-0.12	244924007	Downward Expansion	-63	34
2024-01-26	12.46	11.59	26.91	20183125	Downward Expansion	-30	25
2024-01-19	9.02	11.65	-4.59	22047267	Downward Expansion	-75	79
2024-01-12	9.59	11.84	0.06	24906745	Downward Expansion	-70	72
2024-01-05	9.74	12.01	0.37	23772885	Balance	-67	53
2023-12-29	10.13	11.99	3.20	51512634	Balance	-60	30
2023-12-22	10.49	11.94	9.56	108613462	Balance	-31	22
2023-12-15	12.29	11.89	27.84	103217991	Downward Expansion	4	20
2023-12-08	11.61	11.78	20.77	128225110	Downward Expansion	-28	23
2023-12-01	12.21	11.68	25.34	184852297	Rotation Down	-21	16
2023-11-24	10.90	11.55	12.49	41613075	Rotation Down	-32	34
2023-11-17	10.91	11.45	12.77	38766379	Rotation Down	-36	49
2023-11-10	10.54	11.35	10.09	38925402	Rotation Down	-42	59
2023-11-03	10.68	11.27	12.40	54519560	Rotation Down	-40	58
2023-10-27	10.68	11.19	13.62	24118833	Rotation Down	-35	58
2023-10-20	10.60	11.11	14.86	17556213	Deceleration	-39	56
2023-10-13	10.95	11.04	15.44	21231304	Deceleration	-14	41
2023-09-29	11.38	10.96	19.91	21877833	Deceleration	-5	33
2023-09-22	11.52	10.86	21.44	27764458	Deceleration	1	19

Price vs TrendBelow-0.9%

Trend directionFalling-8.2%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-10.6%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+11.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-6.6%

Relative strength directionImproving+21.6%

Price momentumNegative-9.1%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.23×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

19 / ±100

+52.1 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

29 /100

+7.5 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

600822 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance41

Rotation Up60

Upward Expansion37

Deceleration36

Rotation Down15

Downward Expansion21

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 10%Deceleration 20%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 44%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-18	2026-10-02	New	-5.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-20	2026-09-11	Established	-8.5%
Balance	2026-02-13	2026-03-13	New	-6.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-12-26	2026-02-06	Developing	+0.6%
Deceleration	2025-09-05	2025-12-19	Established	-12.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-18	2025-08-29	Developing	-23.2%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-07-11	Developing	+7.3%
Rotation Up	2025-05-16	2025-05-30	New	-0.5%
Balance	2025-03-28	2025-05-09	Developing	+8.0%
Deceleration	2025-01-10	2025-03-21	Developing	+7.8%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-15	2025-01-03	Developing	-21.4%
Rotation Up	2024-10-18	2024-11-08	New	+14.8%
Balance	2024-10-04	2024-10-11	New	-5.5%
Downward Expansion	2024-05-10	2024-09-27	Established	-5.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing75

Stage 2 · Advancing13

Stage 3 · Distribution17

Stage 4 · Declining87

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4C · Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 000001.SS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 30/100
Current Relative Strength: -6.63
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -9.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -8.1%
Industrials regime cohort: 90th percentile126 in cohort

Test 600822 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.80×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.23×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 600822 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 9.05rising

Slow Activity CNY 8.71falling

Trend Reference CNY 9.00-0.9% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 9.98-10.6% close margin

Structural low CNY 7.65shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +6.7%

Annualized volatility +26.8%

From structural high -30.8%

From structural low +16.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 000001.SS	Regime survived	Read
Near term	17	-0.2%-15.3% to +16.1%	+47.1%	+47.1%	-1.8%	+41.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	10	-2.9%-25.5% to +12.9%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-3.9%	+30.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	-4.0%-25.5% to +76.7%	+42.9%	+42.9%	+2.9%	+28.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-1.9%-8.8% to +12.9%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-4.7%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

600822 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map