Weekly structural research · NYSE · Industrials

QXO Stage Analysis

QXO, Inc.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close USD 12.43Tenure EstablishedBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -64−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 72/100directional strength

Maturity 54/100lifecycle context

Confidence 96/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -64.0%USD 34.48 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	12.43	16.65	-39.19	109884488	Downward Expansion	-64	72
2026-09-18	11.38	17.03	-44.13	107575245	Downward Expansion	-78	75
2026-09-11	12.31	17.51	-40.32	62236974	Downward Expansion	-73	61
2026-09-04	13.35	18.00	-36.49	64157245	Downward Expansion	-66	48
2026-08-28	13.52	18.32	-36.37	54058384	Downward Expansion	-64	42
2026-08-21	13.76	18.61	-35.56	78456851	Downward Expansion	-65	44
2026-08-14	14.51	18.95	-33.62	94359593	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2026-08-07	16.16	19.26	-26.63	104084679	Downward Expansion	-64	62
2026-07-31	13.30	19.55	-37.90	92222228	Downward Expansion	-71	84
2026-07-24	13.00	19.76	-39.20	110409571	Downward Expansion	-78	85
2026-07-17	13.69	20.04	-37.07	128996741	Downward Expansion	-75	72
2026-07-10	14.25	20.31	-36.19	192320298	Downward Expansion	-73	51
2026-07-03	15.41	20.55	-30.75	179044647	Downward Expansion	-67	44
2026-06-26	16.91	20.73	-23.13	111290652	Downward Expansion	-59	42
2026-06-19	17.76	20.79	-21.71	68660070	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2026-06-12	16.63	20.76	-26.78	86291854	Downward Expansion	-63	69
2026-06-05	15.76	20.79	-30.69	87289957	Downward Expansion	-73	78
2026-05-29	17.25	20.84	-26.53	62884057	Rotation Down	-65	73
2026-05-22	16.67	20.85	-28.25	77966548	Rotation Down	-43	63
2026-05-15	16.33	20.91	-29.40	83951864	Balance	-47	56
2026-05-08	18.76	21.00	-19.05	75423143	Balance	-31	14
2026-05-01	19.82	20.99	-12.43	79042264	Balance	-3	9
2026-04-24	20.97	21.01	-6.36	159268444	Balance	22	15
2026-04-17	25.00	20.93	12.62	48650551	Rotation Down	43	17
2026-04-10	21.93	20.79	3.89	41709366	Rotation Down	-18	32
2026-04-03	19.03	20.75	-6.26	32976415	Upward Expansion	-25	40
2026-03-27	18.96	20.85	-3.34	33289314	Upward Expansion	-25	34
2026-03-20	18.64	20.89	-6.81	40227550	Upward Expansion	-18	25
2026-03-13	20.18	20.95	-0.55	32209198	Upward Expansion	18	14
2026-03-06	21.80	20.96	6.31	31754001	Upward Expansion	54	39
2026-02-27	23.95	20.87	15.13	26151161	Upward Expansion	59	49
2026-02-20	25.54	20.72	23.19	25441148	Upward Expansion	68	53
2026-02-13	27.07	20.61	33.40	48674748	Upward Expansion	83	62
2026-02-06	23.01	20.43	13.24	39362599	Upward Expansion	58	47
2026-01-30	22.18	20.36	9.73	29585952	Upward Expansion	62	66
2026-01-23	23.91	20.36	19.53	38335354	Upward Expansion	70	70
2026-01-16	23.81	20.25	19.55	64285761	Rotation Up	73	69
2026-01-09	25.00	20.25	25.99	62076071	Rotation Up	59	64
2026-01-02	19.72	20.07	1.56	31531768	Rotation Up	20	38
2025-12-26	21.24	20.05	8.38	15117387	Rotation Up	22	38
2025-12-19	21.80	19.91	13.15	30949072	Balance	28	34
2025-12-12	21.38	19.74	11.53	40497143	Balance	12	19
2025-12-05	20.82	19.59	8.31	38759828	Rotation Down	-20	12
2025-11-28	18.73	19.36	-2.14	22812698	Rotation Down	-58	43
2025-11-21	16.98	19.21	-8.04	30975230	Rotation Down	-40	55
2025-11-14	17.48	19.07	-7.35	35855146	Rotation Down	-36	50
2025-11-07	17.19	18.93	-8.80	53611962	Rotation Down	-40	50
2025-10-31	17.67	18.82	-7.87	36407438	Deceleration	-31	40
2025-10-24	18.39	18.70	-3.51	31195897	Deceleration	-3	16
2025-10-17	18.99	18.54	1.62	37569354	Deceleration	2	15
2025-10-10	18.58	18.33	1.29	36003598	Deceleration	-1	11
2025-10-03	20.23	18.14	7.71	56634731	Deceleration	19	12
2025-09-26	18.79	17.91	1.54	41716651	Deceleration	13	15
2025-09-19	20.62	17.71	11.16	44676164	Deceleration	48	33
2025-09-12	20.77	17.44	13.68	34303686	Deceleration	48	32
2025-09-05	22.05	17.18	23.02	35559162	Deceleration	62	37
2025-08-29	20.13	16.89	13.26	35559836	Deceleration	36	20
2025-08-22	20.39	16.66	15.19	48147444	Deceleration	38	23
2025-08-15	20.50	16.44	16.69	39188560	Deceleration	41	27
2025-08-08	19.28	16.22	11.51	28378188	Upward Expansion	45	33
2025-08-01	19.33	16.10	15.32	26681643	Upward Expansion	49	42
2025-07-25	22.19	15.99	29.96	31975554	Upward Expansion	69	60
2025-07-18	21.63	15.77	19.07	33892074	Upward Expansion	64	60
2025-07-11	21.17	15.56	11.81	28212183	Upward Expansion	66	77
2025-07-04	21.98	15.40	11.83	39644331	Upward Expansion	72	86
2025-06-27	20.73	15.24	2.49	134404231	Upward Expansion	67	84
2025-06-20	23.79	15.11	14.99	46792917	Upward Expansion	94	95
2025-06-13	19.66	14.88	-11.06	40997040	Rotation Up	81	86
2025-06-06	19.00	14.74	-23.05	32853405	Rotation Up	56	73
2025-05-30	17.00	14.64	-40.68	28988380	Rotation Up	42	62
2025-05-23	16.80	14.58	-44.89	70873085	Rotation Up	33	50
2025-05-16	16.79	14.53	-49.55	25479165	Balance	33	31
2025-05-09	13.87	14.48	-58.51	17770285	Balance	-21	11
2025-05-02	14.26	14.54	-59.64	21713221	Balance	-17	9
2025-04-25	12.88	14.53	-64.23	38886301	Downward Expansion	-42	20
2025-04-18	13.15	14.62	-63.54	30341314	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2025-04-11	13.91	14.69	-63.55	17373306	Downward Expansion	-34	18
2025-04-04	14.00	14.71	-62.66	15287606	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2025-03-28	13.76	14.72	-67.79	18003614	Downward Expansion	-45	29
2025-03-21	12.67	14.73	-71.81	29207398	Downward Expansion	-62	42
2025-03-14	12.82	14.77	-72.31	11923866	Downward Expansion	-63	45
2025-03-07	13.38	14.76	-72.77	10281422	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2025-02-28	12.74	14.69	-75.72	9981161	Downward Expansion	-68	62
2025-02-21	12.51	14.66	-77.26	8776210	Downward Expansion	-47	54
2025-02-14	13.16	16.87	-77.40	6718618	Downward Expansion	-68	55
2025-02-07	13.28	18.38	-77.64	10853407	Downward Expansion	-68	55
2025-01-31	13.29	19.59	-78.42	10198430	Downward Expansion	-74	57
2025-01-24	13.73	21.18	-78.57	6799727	Downward Expansion	-75	57
2025-01-17	13.99	23.11	-78.44	11909440	Downward Expansion	-77	59
2025-01-10	15.65	25.53	-75.91	4536289	Downward Expansion	-52	52
2025-01-03	15.95	29.48	-76.67	9163461	Downward Expansion	-51	57
2024-12-27	15.56	36.28	-78.40	4689474	Downward Expansion	-56	62
2024-12-20	15.44	39.90	-79.15	14882591	Downward Expansion	-47	59
2024-12-13	16.14	42.93	-79.02	8253854	Downward Expansion	-43	57
2024-12-06	17.39	45.82	-77.85	12705882	Downward Expansion	-43	59
2024-11-29	16.64	48.42	-78.94	13327081	Downward Expansion	-53	63
2024-11-22	17.04	50.97	-78.26	21125331	Downward Expansion	-53	83
2024-11-15	15.40	53.50	-80.10	10274736	Downward Expansion	-53	83
2024-11-08	16.05	55.91	-79.77	19045913	Downward Expansion	-54	84
2024-11-01	15.25	58.19	-79.94	3523077	Downward Expansion	-54	84
2024-10-25	15.09	60.54	-80.50	3336563	Downward Expansion	-53	80
2024-10-18	15.40	62.97	-80.36	4771952	Downward Expansion	-49	49
2024-10-11	15.59	65.36	-80.02	6742223	Downward Expansion	-49	55
2024-10-04	13.98	67.91	-81.95	7496179	Downward Expansion	-50	69
2024-09-27	15.73	70.45	-79.72	8232817	Downward Expansion	-59	74
2024-09-20	15.08	73.26	-80.52	31212029	Downward Expansion	-61	77
2024-09-13	14.70	76.40	-80.80	17917660	Downward Expansion	-62	73
2024-09-06	14.30	79.16	-80.64	5818729	Downward Expansion	-61	62
2024-08-30	13.81	82.00	-82.14	14475586	Downward Expansion	-61	61
2024-08-23	13.90	84.48	-82.05	21449618	Downward Expansion	-64	66
2024-08-16	12.62	87.07	-83.54	12791305	Downward Expansion	-67	58
2024-08-09	11.16	89.76	-84.94	14543459	Downward Expansion	-70	56
2024-08-02	11.99	92.74	-83.90	36030416	Downward Expansion	-73	60
2024-07-26	78.69	97.22	3.03	484621	Downward Expansion	-56	52
2024-07-19	58.61	98.40	-22.91	205199	Balance	-61	54
2024-07-12	49.51	98.86	-35.63	153909	Balance	-57	46
2024-07-05	61.00	99.12	-19.50	71399	Balance	-16	23
2024-06-28	71.76	99.05	-2.66	98570	Upward Expansion	18	15
2024-06-21	86.51	97.48	18.68	192589	Upward Expansion	44	39
2024-06-14	134.21	95.40	88.29	347247	Upward Expansion	64	72
2024-06-07	220.00	91.70	223.32	842714	Upward Expansion	98	95
2024-05-31	123.88	85.17	95.12	473682	Upward Expansion	83	74
2024-05-24	106.56	81.80	72.34	170304	Upward Expansion	65	48
2024-05-17	102.62	78.94	70.23	147434	Deceleration	51	32
2024-05-10	95.63	76.24	65.36	137181	Deceleration	40	23
2024-05-03	93.03	73.83	67.76	159321	Deceleration	31	17
2024-04-26	92.90	71.48	72.63	182805	Deceleration	19	11
2024-04-19	87.76	69.12	71.58	515304	Deceleration	16	13
2024-04-12	84.57	66.89	64.14	149674	Deceleration	17	15
2024-04-05	85.57	64.79	67.35	147117	Deceleration	19	14
2024-03-29	87.90	62.69	74.33	165718	Deceleration	31	18
2024-03-22	87.26	60.59	77.96	339522	Deceleration	34	18
2024-03-15	92.03	58.50	96.60	345560	Upward Expansion	40	27
2024-03-08	90.36	56.27	98.38	445635	Upward Expansion	52	34
2024-03-01	99.89	54.10	125.13	615338	Deceleration	53	37
2024-02-23	109.29	51.51	156.79	302100	Deceleration	52	37
2024-02-16	97.36	48.64	141.38	403727	Deceleration	43	33
2024-02-09	99.56	46.10	154.47	505120	Deceleration	48	36
2024-02-02	88.16	43.53	136.85	421612	Upward Expansion	57	45
2024-01-26	91.83	41.31	158.44	662430	Upward Expansion	64	61
2024-01-19	93.23	38.96	174.87	907238	Upward Expansion	67	67
2024-01-12	100.43	36.54	211.46	2068928	Upward Expansion	68	86
2024-01-05	146.47	33.83	384.39	1754252	Upward Expansion	99	99
2023-12-29	114.02	29.61	303.00	2169660	Upward Expansion	99	99
2023-12-22	72.44	26.47	173.73	1430653	Upward Expansion	96	98
2023-12-15	57.31	24.74	126.61	5060486	Upward Expansion	94	95
2023-12-08	59.04	23.47	145.01	47447900	Upward Expansion	96	88
2023-12-01	24.46	22.18	4.48	38487	Balance	58	50
2023-11-24	24.19	22.00	4.00	34251	Balance	55	38
2023-11-17	23.32	21.87	1.07	63463	Balance	37	20
2023-11-10	24.06	21.77	6.39	48336	Balance	43	17
2023-11-03	22.72	21.63	1.75	132977	Balance	16	8
2023-10-27	20.92	21.54	-1.81	47241	Balance	1	5
2023-10-20	21.59	21.48	-2.02	96481	Balance	7	5
2023-10-13	23.19	21.41	2.00	19501	Upward Expansion	28	15
2023-10-06	22.66	21.27	-0.78	41977	Upward Expansion	20	19

Price vs TrendBelow-25.3%

Trend directionFalling-16.9%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-64.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-11.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-39.2%

Relative strength directionWeakening-16.1%

Price momentumNegative-34.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.29×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-64 / ±100

-0.2 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

72 /100

+29.9 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

QXO Directional State ↗ QXO Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance7

Rotation Up17

Upward Expansion16

Deceleration39

Rotation Down68

Downward Expansion92

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 24%Deceleration 16%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 37%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-06-05	2026-09-25	Established	-21.1%
Rotation Down	2026-05-22	2026-05-29	New	+3.5%
Balance	2026-04-24	2026-05-15	New	-22.1%
Rotation Down	2026-04-10	2026-04-17	New	+14.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-23	2026-04-03	Developing	-20.4%
Rotation Up	2025-12-26	2026-01-16	New	+12.1%
Balance	2025-12-12	2025-12-19	New	+2.0%
Rotation Down	2025-11-07	2025-12-05	Developing	+21.1%
Deceleration	2025-08-15	2025-10-31	Developing	-13.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-20	2025-08-08	Developing	-19.0%
Rotation Up	2025-05-23	2025-06-13	New	+17.0%
Balance	2025-05-02	2025-05-16	New	+17.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-07-26	2025-04-25	Extended	-83.6%
Balance	2024-07-05	2024-07-19	New	-3.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing51

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution19

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 99/100
Current Relative Strength: -39.19
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -34.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -56.4%
Industrials regime cohort: 64th percentile92 in cohort

Test QXO trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.12×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.29×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 5

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore QXO Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 12.32falling

Slow Activity USD 15.02falling

Trend Reference USD 16.65-25.3% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 34.48-64.0% close margin

Structural low USD 11.14shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +13.5%

Annualized volatility +63.1%

From structural high -55.0%

From structural low +11.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	28	-0.2%-82.3% to +17.7%	+46.4%	+50.0%	-3.9%	+89.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	-9.0%-80.8% to +72.3%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-5.8%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+8.2%-82.6% to +67.2%	+60.0%	+40.0%	-1.3%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-24.7%-71.8% to +351.4%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-10.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

QXO Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map