Weekly structural research · PAR · Industrials

ALSOG Stage Analysis

Sogeclair SA

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 31.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^FCHI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -59−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 49/100directional strength

Maturity 15/100lifecycle context

Confidence 75/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +31.0%EUR 23.67 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	31.00	34.27	4.70	2652	Downward Expansion	-59	49
2026-10-02	30.60	34.33	2.48	7571	Downward Expansion	-67	54
2026-09-25	31.40	34.33	3.18	2839	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2026-09-18	30.00	34.29	-0.89	2768	Rotation Down	-80	79
2026-09-11	32.40	34.30	5.82	2713	Rotation Down	-36	63
2026-09-04	32.50	34.19	5.21	1137	Rotation Down	-38	66
2026-08-28	30.30	34.08	-2.90	211	Rotation Down	-60	74
2026-08-21	32.20	34.01	2.42	468	Balance	-38	53
2026-08-14	33.50	33.86	5.04	141	Balance	-5	25
2026-08-07	34.10	33.65	6.25	133	Balance	5	13
2026-07-31	33.00	33.44	5.56	726	Upward Expansion	16	11
2026-07-24	34.90	33.20	13.73	414	Upward Expansion	56	54
2026-07-17	38.30	32.86	25.77	115	Upward Expansion	67	68
2026-07-10	37.50	32.41	23.83	102	Upward Expansion	63	59
2026-07-03	37.40	31.97	21.71	168	Upward Expansion	59	31
2026-06-26	36.30	31.55	20.38	685	Upward Expansion	52	23
2026-06-19	35.60	31.14	18.08	1253	Upward Expansion	39	21
2026-06-12	33.00	30.76	10.82	226	Upward Expansion	37	22
2026-06-05	33.90	30.48	16.20	1927	Upward Expansion	50	30
2026-05-29	37.50	30.17	29.76	3678	Deceleration	62	38
2026-05-22	36.70	29.74	29.14	19891	Deceleration	48	27
2026-05-15	34.10	29.39	23.60	2593	Upward Expansion	39	21
2026-05-08	35.56	29.08	27.36	6034	Upward Expansion	57	36
2026-05-01	32.25	28.76	16.50	4372	Upward Expansion	58	47
2026-04-24	33.32	28.54	20.54	9804	Upward Expansion	61	53
2026-04-17	39.35	28.25	39.00	8060	Upward Expansion	79	66
2026-04-10	40.80	27.78	48.74	14026	Upward Expansion	90	69
2026-04-03	32.74	27.29	25.42	3766	Upward Expansion	64	57
2026-03-27	31.19	26.98	24.67	10620	Upward Expansion	66	60
2026-03-20	36.82	26.75	48.90	11039	Upward Expansion	96	82
2026-03-13	32.64	26.35	29.44	12661	Upward Expansion	87	71
2026-03-06	30.60	26.15	21.19	6643	Upward Expansion	75	67
2026-02-27	30.12	26.02	11.89	7110	Upward Expansion	75	77
2026-02-20	30.51	25.88	15.06	9158	Upward Expansion	88	93
2026-02-13	28.95	25.77	12.79	6773	Upward Expansion	76	89
2026-02-06	29.24	25.73	15.43	7477	Rotation Up	88	94
2026-01-30	28.17	25.66	14.19	15072	Rotation Up	53	81
2026-01-23	27.69	25.64	12.90	5169	Rotation Up	51	76
2026-01-16	27.30	25.61	10.67	3291	Rotation Up	38	62
2026-01-09	27.69	25.58	11.56	6783	Balance	40	44
2026-01-02	25.75	25.46	6.46	3156	Balance	-14	12
2025-12-26	24.87	25.42	4.42	1493	Balance	-36	17
2025-12-19	24.87	25.38	4.40	4377	Balance	-50	33
2025-12-12	24.29	25.28	3.50	2503	Balance	-54	44
2025-12-05	24.58	25.22	4.65	1792	Balance	-52	44
2025-11-28	24.00	25.13	2.62	4013	Balance	-29	38
2025-11-21	24.29	25.05	6.13	4631	Balance	-26	29
2025-11-14	24.48	24.89	5.04	1025	Balance	-20	14
2025-11-07	24.77	24.72	9.77	4615	Deceleration	10	7
2025-10-31	24.58	24.54	7.20	13537	Deceleration	17	9
2025-10-24	26.23	24.33	13.60	9469	Deceleration	37	19
2025-10-17	24.68	24.22	8.34	4519	Deceleration	20	11
2025-10-10	26.04	24.15	18.71	6994	Deceleration	34	18
2025-10-03	25.55	23.99	15.08	5942	Deceleration	25	15
2025-09-26	24.77	23.86	15.39	2376	Deceleration	9	11
2025-09-19	25.16	23.66	18.07	6931	Deceleration	12	15
2025-09-12	26.13	23.44	23.84	12166	Deceleration	18	20
2025-09-05	23.32	23.14	13.37	4016	Deceleration	-4	17
2025-08-29	24.29	22.95	18.07	5950	Deceleration	27	20
2025-08-22	24.97	22.72	17.65	4748	Deceleration	39	26
2025-08-15	26.52	22.45	25.99	2216	Upward Expansion	46	38
2025-08-08	26.72	22.16	30.32	3586	Upward Expansion	50	44
2025-08-01	25.94	21.87	30.45	5368	Upward Expansion	63	54
2025-07-25	27.20	21.62	32.18	8430	Upward Expansion	66	71
2025-07-18	27.69	21.25	35.32	10067	Upward Expansion	73	86
2025-07-11	27.20	20.89	33.39	13783	Upward Expansion	73	88
2025-07-04	27.59	20.55	38.37	8431	Upward Expansion	81	89
2025-06-27	26.91	20.18	36.14	6879	Upward Expansion	80	83
2025-06-20	26.43	19.84	36.60	15073	Upward Expansion	84	83
2025-06-13	24.00	19.52	23.41	7865	Upward Expansion	68	70
2025-06-06	24.68	19.27	25.72	8267	Upward Expansion	81	80
2025-05-30	23.51	19.01	21.05	5099	Upward Expansion	73	69
2025-05-23	21.86	18.77	13.10	7137	Upward Expansion	59	58
2025-05-16	22.48	18.57	14.18	11221	Upward Expansion	67	54
2025-05-09	22.01	18.37	13.96	8703	Deceleration	64	39
2025-05-02	21.55	18.17	11.41	7036	Deceleration	50	24
2025-04-25	19.50	17.99	4.06	1953	Deceleration	30	28
2025-04-18	19.40	17.97	7.28	3659	Upward Expansion	39	22
2025-04-11	19.31	17.90	9.70	20223	Upward Expansion	57	41
2025-04-04	18.28	17.87	1.67	12798	Upward Expansion	60	68
2025-03-28	23.04	17.88	17.86	8372	Upward Expansion	84	94
2025-03-21	22.57	17.82	14.11	21650	Upward Expansion	86	92
2025-03-14	21.27	17.78	8.10	9942	Rotation Up	84	88
2025-03-07	21.64	17.78	9.01	17047	Rotation Up	61	69
2025-02-28	18.66	17.74	-5.69	4966	Balance	35	34
2025-02-21	18.42	17.84	-7.35	5452	Balance	6	10
2025-02-14	17.35	17.96	-12.99	2952	Balance	-22	13
2025-02-07	17.44	18.12	-10.29	1918	Balance	-9	6
2025-01-31	17.54	18.25	-9.56	7058	Balance	-10	10
2025-01-24	16.70	18.30	-13.65	4000	Balance	-16	19
2025-01-17	17.96	18.35	-4.50	2726	Balance	-2	16
2025-01-10	17.91	18.39	-1.04	2827	Balance	-7	13
2025-01-03	18.47	18.37	4.34	5373	Downward Expansion	-5	9
2024-12-27	16.28	18.47	-8.75	3190	Downward Expansion	-59	37
2024-12-20	16.79	18.64	-4.80	1731	Downward Expansion	-40	28
2024-12-13	16.98	18.81	-5.36	5408	Downward Expansion	-41	29
2024-12-06	16.46	19.00	-8.38	3218	Downward Expansion	-46	37
2024-11-29	16.84	19.15	-3.85	2888	Downward Expansion	-43	33
2024-11-22	16.79	19.28	-4.31	1467	Downward Expansion	-47	40
2024-11-15	16.46	19.37	-6.29	1922	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2024-11-08	16.93	19.46	-4.54	6001	Downward Expansion	-63	57
2024-11-01	16.23	19.54	-9.31	2698	Downward Expansion	-65	78
2024-10-25	15.86	19.65	-12.51	3036	Downward Expansion	-73	84
2024-10-18	16.42	19.77	-10.94	1768	Downward Expansion	-70	81
2024-10-11	16.00	19.86	-12.89	6154	Downward Expansion	-79	84
2024-10-04	16.23	19.96	-11.19	6783	Rotation Down	-79	79
2024-09-27	18.75	20.05	-0.53	8781	Rotation Down	-31	57
2024-09-20	17.49	20.03	-3.26	4021	Upward Expansion	-44	58
2024-09-13	18.33	20.05	1.97	1591	Upward Expansion	-23	22
2024-09-06	18.66	19.99	5.60	4969	Upward Expansion	12	8
2024-08-30	21.17	19.93	15.66	4664	Upward Expansion	38	19
2024-08-23	21.36	19.79	17.98	2806	Upward Expansion	52	28
2024-08-16	21.36	19.60	20.45	8243	Upward Expansion	53	33
2024-08-09	20.34	19.42	17.95	14195	Upward Expansion	54	49
2024-08-02	21.83	19.28	27.40	5761	Upward Expansion	59	52
2024-07-26	21.73	19.11	23.07	4048	Deceleration	57	41
2024-07-19	22.39	18.94	27.05	11165	Deceleration	53	29
2024-07-12	21.27	18.73	18.29	3416	Deceleration	28	18
2024-07-05	19.12	18.58	7.31	4323	Deceleration	1	25
2024-06-28	18.00	18.51	3.83	6614	Deceleration	0	23
2024-06-21	19.22	18.45	8.79	26810	Rotation Down	24	24
2024-06-14	17.35	18.35	0.08	17810	Rotation Down	14	20
2024-06-07	21.45	18.32	16.05	1723	Upward Expansion	67	80
2024-05-31	21.45	18.13	16.41	1804	Upward Expansion	68	86
2024-05-24	21.92	17.96	17.77	4608	Upward Expansion	79	92
2024-05-17	22.48	17.75	20.23	3886	Upward Expansion	94	92
2024-05-10	20.99	17.51	11.97	2064	Upward Expansion	86	73
2024-05-03	20.81	17.31	14.95	4348	Upward Expansion	90	73
2024-04-26	19.38	17.07	5.63	2952	Upward Expansion	65	63
2024-04-19	19.29	16.89	6.18	1033	Upward Expansion	66	66
2024-04-12	19.47	16.77	7.54	2839	Upward Expansion	71	85
2024-04-05	19.29	16.66	6.06	2532	Upward Expansion	68	86
2024-03-29	19.64	16.58	6.23	3058	Upward Expansion	85	94
2024-03-22	19.11	16.48	4.13	5984	Upward Expansion	78	91
2024-03-15	19.02	16.41	3.46	10608	Upward Expansion	83	91
2024-03-08	18.93	16.35	4.55	7479	Upward Expansion	90	91
2024-03-01	18.12	16.29	1.32	2788	Upward Expansion	80	81
2024-02-23	17.90	16.25	-0.38	3906	Upward Expansion	78	74
2024-02-16	16.77	16.24	-4.34	4126	Balance	27	34
2024-02-09	16.77	16.27	-2.98	2304	Balance	26	15
2024-02-02	16.86	16.31	-1.99	11790	Balance	18	12
2024-01-26	15.88	16.30	-8.46	7349	Balance	-37	21
2024-01-19	15.88	16.33	-5.46	7132	Balance	-13	10
2024-01-12	16.24	16.34	-4.77	3363	Rotation Up	1	5
2024-01-05	16.64	16.37	-2.03	863	Rotation Up	19	16
2023-12-29	16.46	16.40	-4.91	2583	Rotation Up	17	25
2023-12-22	16.10	16.42	-7.65	4651	Rotation Up	18	24
2023-12-15	16.82	16.42	-4.05	789	Rotation Up	26	35
2023-12-08	17.00	16.43	-2.26	2704	Downward Expansion	30	29
2023-12-01	16.37	16.42	-3.59	481	Downward Expansion	-4	15
2023-11-24	16.19	16.43	-4.01	864	Downward Expansion	-19	23
2023-11-17	16.37	16.44	-2.23	6261	Downward Expansion	-18	24
2023-11-10	15.88	16.45	-2.72	3200	Downward Expansion	-33	28
2023-11-03	16.15	16.48	-1.25	3076	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2023-10-27	15.70	16.50	-0.50	2764	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2023-10-20	15.43	16.52	-2.47	1935	Downward Expansion	-65	81

Price vs TrendBelow-9.6%

Trend directionRising+2.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+31.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-37.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+4.7%

Relative strength directionWeakening-19.1%

Price momentumNegative-24.0%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.46×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-59 / ±100

-22.6 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

49 /100

-14.3 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

ALSOG Directional State ↗ ALSOG Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance28

Rotation Up17

Upward Expansion7

Deceleration50

Rotation Down56

Downward Expansion76

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 16%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 42%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 15%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-09-25	2026-10-09	New	-1.3%
Rotation Down	2026-08-28	2026-09-18	New	-1.0%
Balance	2026-08-07	2026-08-21	New	-5.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-05	2026-07-31	Developing	-2.7%
Deceleration	2026-05-22	2026-05-29	New	+2.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-05-15	Established	+17.8%
Rotation Up	2026-01-16	2026-02-06	New	+7.1%
Balance	2025-11-14	2026-01-09	Developing	+13.1%
Deceleration	2025-08-22	2025-11-07	Developing	-0.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-08-15	Established	+18.0%
Deceleration	2025-04-25	2025-05-09	New	+12.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-21	2025-04-18	Developing	-14.0%
Rotation Up	2025-03-07	2025-03-14	New	-1.7%
Balance	2025-01-10	2025-02-28	Developing	+4.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing28

Stage 2 · Advancing41

Stage 3 · Distribution60

Stage 4 · Declining59

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3B · Distribution. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FCHI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 44/100
Current Relative Strength: 4.70
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -24.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -18.5%
Industrials regime cohort: 18th percentile40 in cohort

Test ALSOG trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.77×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.46×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore ALSOG Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 30.93falling

Slow Activity EUR 33.47falling

Trend Reference EUR 34.27-9.6% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 23.67+31.0% close margin

Structural low EUR 29.30shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +6.4%

Annualized volatility +43.5%

From structural high -24.0%

From structural low +30.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^FCHI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	13	+3.1%-5.1% to +12.2%	+61.5%	+38.5%	-0.9%	+69.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	+9.9%-3.5% to +17.6%	+80.0%	+20.0%	+2.0%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+15.7%-9.5% to +40.4%	+75.0%	+25.0%	+10.8%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+34.0%+0.1% to +62.8%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+24.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

ALSOG Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map