Weekly structural research · JPX · Financial Services

8766 Stage Analysis

Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close JPY 507.40Tenure NewBenchmark ^N225

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: stable.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction 53−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 39/100directional strength

Maturity 8/100lifecycle context

Confidence 71/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +39.6%JPY 363.48 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	507.40	484.84	-1.74	565015100	Upward Expansion	53	39
2026-09-25	524.72	481.23	4.26	236784000	Upward Expansion	57	53
2026-09-18	538.37	477.81	8.94	480549000	Deceleration	67	50
2026-09-11	523.27	473.82	7.38	377341500	Deceleration	58	32
2026-09-04	523.67	469.95	5.52	438585000	Deceleration	48	24
2026-08-28	505.09	465.52	-0.72	390160500	Upward Expansion	38	21
2026-08-21	482.37	461.03	-5.09	357648000	Upward Expansion	44	30
2026-08-14	495.04	457.58	-6.99	296206500	Upward Expansion	60	55
2026-08-07	521.24	454.09	1.92	296047500	Upward Expansion	63	66
2026-07-31	532.73	449.55	5.78	385351500	Upward Expansion	74	75
2026-07-24	532.86	444.33	5.05	297757500	Upward Expansion	79	72
2026-07-17	494.12	439.08	-2.15	303559500	Upward Expansion	60	49
2026-07-10	499.57	435.45	-7.82	446451000	Upward Expansion	65	44
2026-07-03	497.93	431.22	-10.12	472410000	Deceleration	66	38
2026-06-26	453.22	426.54	-18.19	454486500	Deceleration	38	22
2026-06-19	472.32	423.31	-17.62	411996000	Upward Expansion	41	25
2026-06-12	480.93	419.51	-10.11	536088000	Upward Expansion	58	35
2026-06-05	459.32	416.25	-15.40	414766500	Upward Expansion	54	39
2026-05-29	466.87	413.52	-14.39	493720500	Upward Expansion	58	43
2026-05-22	484.60	410.43	-7.64	601074000	Upward Expansion	62	48
2026-05-15	496.88	407.08	-2.81	419487000	Upward Expansion	74	54
2026-05-08	461.56	403.40	-11.98	217207500	Upward Expansion	59	47
2026-05-01	465.69	401.65	-6.95	314758500	Upward Expansion	62	54
2026-04-24	471.14	399.39	-6.60	456373500	Upward Expansion	67	77
2026-04-17	455.19	396.99	-8.27	440814000	Upward Expansion	62	80
2026-04-10	465.82	395.22	-3.98	410065500	Upward Expansion	69	81
2026-04-03	475.54	393.38	4.77	586371000	Upward Expansion	81	73
2026-03-27	485.75	391.25	6.34	1139226000	Rotation Up	84	51
2026-03-20	390.10	388.62	-14.83	274041000	Rotation Up	11	11
2026-03-13	381.89	389.54	-17.80	410526000	Rotation Up	21	33
2026-03-06	398.96	390.89	-17.34	465105000	Rotation Up	34	61
2026-02-27	422.11	390.83	-17.69	360481500	Rotation Up	51	71
2026-02-20	418.75	389.87	-15.76	445368000	Rotation Up	45	60
2026-02-13	407.24	388.88	-18.40	393609000	Balance	33	31
2026-02-06	390.68	387.77	-18.01	392406000	Balance	-1	6
2026-01-30	370.38	386.97	-21.07	392808000	Balance	-27	15
2026-01-23	378.98	387.13	-20.24	406750500	Balance	-13	13
2026-01-16	390.30	387.40	-18.19	328344000	Balance	-12	15
2026-01-09	385.12	386.65	-16.41	370161000	Downward Expansion	-26	21
2026-01-02	376.20	386.29	-15.90	79212000	Downward Expansion	-35	22
2025-12-26	375.29	386.88	-17.06	246166500	Downward Expansion	-41	24
2025-12-19	385.06	387.33	-13.05	379983000	Downward Expansion	-55	37
2025-12-12	372.83	386.68	-18.21	321393000	Downward Expansion	-62	62
2025-12-05	357.57	386.79	-21.31	361114500	Rotation Down	-71	74
2025-11-28	356.28	387.21	-21.59	382711500	Rotation Down	-49	64
2025-11-21	358.35	387.31	-18.84	759151500	Rotation Down	-43	59
2025-11-14	382.99	387.16	-16.62	264249000	Rotation Down	-21	45
2025-11-07	377.62	385.61	-17.97	333763500	Deceleration	-25	37
2025-10-31	373.93	383.44	-22.40	540895500	Deceleration	-10	21
2025-10-24	384.22	381.89	-15.55	367461000	Deceleration	2	10
2025-10-17	386.41	381.86	-12.22	325389000	Deceleration	21	15
2025-10-10	409.24	381.46	-8.21	392898000	Deceleration	40	21
2025-10-03	397.73	379.47	-6.33	410482500	Deceleration	35	21
2025-09-26	399.06	377.37	-5.23	304567500	Deceleration	41	29
2025-09-19	402.24	375.13	-3.75	251998500	Upward Expansion	54	38
2025-09-12	410.63	372.39	-1.07	256344000	Upward Expansion	60	50
2025-09-05	411.52	369.24	3.31	241354500	Upward Expansion	62	68
2025-08-29	407.01	366.05	3.04	249963000	Upward Expansion	64	73
2025-08-22	417.56	363.25	6.09	288802500	Upward Expansion	73	77
2025-08-15	422.33	360.18	5.69	325090500	Upward Expansion	80	75
2025-08-08	397.40	357.04	3.30	326599500	Upward Expansion	65	50
2025-08-01	393.14	354.57	4.94	226863000	Deceleration	64	39
2025-07-25	388.95	353.42	2.38	295791000	Deceleration	61	32
2025-07-18	374.20	352.45	2.61	250126500	Deceleration	38	24
2025-07-11	366.57	351.50	1.12	324402000	Upward Expansion	39	24
2025-07-04	375.15	351.16	2.86	310566000	Upward Expansion	43	28
2025-06-27	386.98	350.69	5.21	335554500	Upward Expansion	60	39
2025-06-20	368.03	349.41	4.67	248433000	Upward Expansion	56	44
2025-06-13	374.13	349.00	8.18	317704500	Upward Expansion	58	53
2025-06-06	394.10	348.90	14.53	304510500	Upward Expansion	70	68
2025-05-30	388.63	348.22	12.70	424131000	Upward Expansion	70	66
2025-05-23	365.61	346.62	8.67	409041000	Balance	55	57
2025-05-16	376.17	345.80	10.43	364590000	Balance	36	49
2025-05-09	370.13	345.17	9.88	198037500	Balance	31	35
2025-05-02	359.19	344.43	8.96	330100500	Balance	3	6
2025-04-25	353.85	344.13	11.10	305385000	Balance	-22	18
2025-04-18	336.43	343.57	9.05	287184000	Balance	-29	15
2025-04-11	312.52	343.17	5.20	700386000	Balance	-33	19
2025-04-04	327.72	343.19	10.12	515157000	Rotation Up	4	24
2025-03-28	383.03	343.05	17.69	353791500	Rotation Up	54	60
2025-03-21	374.70	341.60	14.21	439609500	Downward Expansion	29	33
2025-03-14	349.52	340.31	9.01	470719500	Downward Expansion	-16	16
2025-03-07	334.61	340.13	5.38	469899000	Downward Expansion	-43	28
2025-02-28	331.79	339.07	4.22	434383500	Rotation Down	-59	45
2025-02-21	320.21	338.39	-3.16	453405000	Rotation Down	-36	57
2025-02-14	316.13	339.16	-4.97	254172000	Rotation Down	-43	63
2025-02-07	315.57	341.35	-4.03	267310500	Rotation Down	-43	64
2025-01-31	323.21	343.54	-3.27	296914500	Rotation Down	-26	52
2025-01-24	325.34	345.61	-3.11	345334500	Balance	-35	47
2025-01-17	328.04	347.11	1.87	346845000	Balance	-31	31
2025-01-10	323.40	347.52	-0.96	593433000	Balance	-15	14
2025-01-03	358.79	347.94	8.41	47301000	Upward Expansion	38	18
2024-12-27	359.61	347.17	8.24	234960000	Upward Expansion	38	18
2024-12-20	345.76	346.35	8.96	481108500	Upward Expansion	30	14
2024-12-13	356.47	345.43	10.82	368176500	Upward Expansion	39	20
2024-12-06	361.11	343.67	14.04	371854500	Upward Expansion	53	31
2024-11-29	348.52	342.15	13.21	448317000	Upward Expansion	51	45
2024-11-22	355.85	340.92	16.04	438012000	Upward Expansion	54	50
2024-11-15	370.88	339.14	20.55	308673000	Upward Expansion	66	56
2024-11-08	373.95	336.31	19.85	311169000	Deceleration	70	53
2024-11-01	340.44	333.71	14.11	326320500	Deceleration	48	29
2024-10-25	341.06	332.15	15.44	257404500	Deceleration	49	30
2024-10-18	357.16	330.46	18.28	287380500	Deceleration	55	33
2024-10-11	348.14	328.26	14.22	397495500	Deceleration	37	21
2024-10-04	350.15	325.79	18.46	445455000	Deceleration	34	14
2024-09-27	337.06	323.37	11.31	326830500	Deceleration	10	11
2024-09-20	324.45	321.16	13.65	416772000	Deceleration	10	11
2024-09-13	312.97	319.08	13.59	316065000	Deceleration	0	7
2024-09-06	323.52	317.70	18.73	293542500	Deceleration	8	5
2024-08-30	339.69	314.74	18.20	379908000	Deceleration	14	13
2024-08-23	335.86	311.12	18.60	293617500	Deceleration	21	23
2024-08-16	344.25	307.50	23.43	363913500	Deceleration	24	25
2024-08-09	302.67	303.60	18.88	950197500	Deceleration	11	19
2024-08-02	311.31	301.05	20.19	525534000	Upward Expansion	32	27
2024-07-26	343.51	297.89	27.44	324961500	Upward Expansion	66	61
2024-07-19	381.83	293.60	34.36	254154000	Upward Expansion	74	81
2024-07-12	381.27	287.88	31.78	542248500	Upward Expansion	80	83
2024-07-05	385.16	282.26	35.32	446080500	Upward Expansion	91	87
2024-06-28	370.47	276.97	35.79	409255500	Upward Expansion	91	77
2024-06-21	340.37	272.07	29.16	336262500	Upward Expansion	73	74
2024-06-14	335.86	268.30	27.73	354084000	Upward Expansion	74	68
2024-06-07	335.74	264.21	29.09	416854500	Upward Expansion	80	76
2024-05-31	334.94	259.96	30.44	553987500	Upward Expansion	86	76
2024-05-24	318.34	255.70	24.44	614521500	Upward Expansion	75	70
2024-05-17	303.54	251.89	19.03	435133500	Upward Expansion	66	69
2024-05-10	315.57	248.58	26.39	279861000	Upward Expansion	79	68
2024-05-03	311.56	245.01	25.76	230775000	Upward Expansion	81	69
2024-04-26	302.42	241.43	23.97	404059500	Upward Expansion	77	67
2024-04-19	286.14	238.38	20.88	405136500	Upward Expansion	67	64
2024-04-12	295.76	236.12	17.93	322683000	Upward Expansion	75	70
2024-04-05	293.66	233.27	19.41	434080500	Upward Expansion	77	73
2024-03-29	290.58	230.22	14.81	313495500	Upward Expansion	79	84
2024-03-22	290.97	227.04	14.12	340660500	Upward Expansion	87	91
2024-03-15	273.98	223.61	14.10	372037500	Upward Expansion	72	88
2024-03-08	277.57	220.76	13.27	422706000	Upward Expansion	83	93
2024-03-01	270.81	217.71	10.24	407113500	Upward Expansion	84	93
2024-02-23	262.05	214.79	9.13	350188500	Upward Expansion	84	91
2024-02-16	271.60	212.45	15.08	715890000	Upward Expansion	95	89
2024-02-09	234.59	209.78	4.02	312243000	Upward Expansion	70	70
2024-02-02	231.12	208.21	4.77	354336000	Upward Expansion	67	64
2024-01-26	227.28	207.06	4.44	274678500	Upward Expansion	62	56
2024-01-19	227.28	206.10	3.95	296223000	Deceleration	64	44
2024-01-12	226.25	205.14	4.70	326301000	Deceleration	55	30
2024-01-05	216.44	204.32	6.82	129786000	Deceleration	36	20
2023-12-29	214.86	203.54	5.88	187968000	Upward Expansion	40	25
2023-12-22	210.35	202.69	4.61	387048000	Upward Expansion	55	37
2023-12-15	212.61	201.75	6.34	366642000	Upward Expansion	62	62
2023-12-08	226.37	200.37	15.70	350728500	Upward Expansion	74	78
2023-12-01	223.44	198.28	10.76	335179500	Upward Expansion	72	71
2023-11-24	227.40	196.30	12.39	411390000	Upward Expansion	82	64
2023-11-17	213.09	194.15	5.66	289069500	Deceleration	64	39
2023-11-10	208.16	192.38	6.65	278776500	Deceleration	44	28
2023-11-03	207.31	190.68	8.45	227118000	Deceleration	44	30
2023-10-27	204.02	188.87	10.28	248187000	Upward Expansion	43	29
2023-10-20	204.14	187.15	9.70	222807000	Upward Expansion	58	43
2023-10-13	208.59	185.32	8.72	231040500	Upward Expansion	64	58

Price vs TrendAbove+4.7%

Trend directionRising+9.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+39.6%

Fair Value directionMoving away-8.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-1.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+8.4%

Price momentumPositive+6.7%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.73×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

53 / ±100

+4.9 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

39 /100

+14.7 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

8766 Directional State ↗ 8766 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance34

Rotation Up50

Upward Expansion76

Deceleration58

Rotation Down19

Downward Expansion5

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 52%Deceleration 22%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 5%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-09-25	2026-10-02	New	-3.3%
Deceleration	2026-09-04	2026-09-18	New	+2.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-10	2026-08-28	Developing	+1.1%
Deceleration	2026-06-26	2026-07-03	New	+9.9%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-03	2026-06-19	Developing	-0.7%
Rotation Up	2026-02-20	2026-03-27	Developing	+16.0%
Balance	2026-01-16	2026-02-13	Developing	+4.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-12-12	2026-01-09	Developing	+3.3%
Rotation Down	2025-11-14	2025-12-05	New	-6.6%
Deceleration	2025-09-26	2025-11-07	Developing	-5.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-08	2025-09-19	Developing	+1.2%
Deceleration	2025-07-18	2025-08-01	New	+5.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-30	2025-07-11	Developing	-5.7%
Balance	2025-04-11	2025-05-23	Developing	+17.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing18

Stage 2 · Advancing80

Stage 3 · Distribution61

Stage 4 · Declining20

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 36/100
Current Relative Strength: -1.74
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +6.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -21.9%
Financial Services regime cohort: 18th percentile114 in cohort

Test 8766 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.37×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.73×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationStable

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 8766 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity JPY 521.41rising

Slow Activity JPY 500.44rising

Trend Reference JPY 484.84+4.7% close margin

Current Fair Value JPY 363.48+39.6% close margin

Structural low JPY 446.32shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.9%

Annualized volatility +27.8%

From structural high -8.7%

From structural low +48.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^N225	Regime survived	Read
Near term	41	+0.2%-20.6% to +15.3%	+51.2%	+51.2%	+0.7%	+65.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	15	+4.7%-14.8% to +28.9%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-0.1%	+46.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	9	+10.8%-8.3% to +49.9%	+88.9%	+88.9%	+11.8%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+37.5%+3.3% to +59.8%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+26.0%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

8766 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map