Weekly structural research ยท MEX ยท Industrials

VWSN Stage Analysis

Vestas Wind Systems A/S

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close MXN 492.90Tenure NewBenchmark ^MXX
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Deceleration ยท Momentum cooling

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: compressed and expanding.
Direction 39โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 49/100directional strength
Maturity 22/100lifecycle context
Confidence 71/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Compressedexpanding separation
Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +21.3%MXN 406.38 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-25492.90486.347.520Deceleration3949
2026-09-18492.90484.0910.630Deceleration3942
2026-09-11492.90481.8410.080Deceleration5051
2026-09-04492.90479.598.870Deceleration4532
2026-08-28492.90480.138.160Upward Expansion4932
2026-08-21492.90480.688.000Upward Expansion5136
2026-08-14492.90481.2210.480Upward Expansion4439
2026-08-07492.90481.777.100Upward Expansion4543
2026-07-31492.90482.317.840Rotation Up4446
2026-07-24492.90481.949.460Rotation Up4747
2026-07-17492.90481.569.800Deceleration2325
2026-07-10492.90481.1810.760Deceleration-526
2026-07-03492.90480.8110.580Rotation Down-1041
2026-06-26457.05477.553.000Rotation Down-3958
2026-06-19447.08475.500.570Rotation Down-4053
2026-06-12447.08473.770.650Rotation Down-127
2026-06-05489.81472.0513.830Upward Expansion5358
2026-05-29515.86468.9016.460Upward Expansion6688
2026-05-22515.86464.8817.790Upward Expansion6789
2026-05-15515.86460.8719.360Upward Expansion6989
2026-05-08515.86456.8517.090Upward Expansion7591
2026-05-01515.86452.8321.400Upward Expansion8394
2026-04-24515.86448.8119.900Rotation Up9196
2026-04-17515.86444.8019.778089Rotation Up8472
2026-04-10476.36440.7810.980Deceleration6157
2026-04-03475.62438.0811.750Deceleration5444
2026-03-27475.62435.4017.275235Deceleration3627
2026-03-20438.70432.7313.100Deceleration-1264
2026-03-13438.70431.2810.995923Deceleration-3060
2026-03-06425.39426.205.380Deceleration-1647
2026-02-27425.39421.56-0.370Deceleration-740
2026-02-20425.39416.92-0.250Deceleration1034
2026-02-13425.39412.28-0.1018488Upward Expansion3048
2026-02-06509.26407.6520.980Upward Expansion6969
2026-01-30509.26400.2127.470Upward Expansion7571
2026-01-23509.26392.7827.160Upward Expansion8475
2026-01-16509.26385.3429.970Upward Expansion9378
2026-01-09509.26377.9132.913559Upward Expansion9799
2026-01-02481.60370.4830.290Upward Expansion8695
2025-12-26481.60363.9628.040Upward Expansion9598
2025-12-19481.60357.4532.070Upward Expansion9598
2025-12-12481.60350.9431.3339603Deceleration9398
2025-12-05395.34โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-28395.34โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-21395.34โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-14395.34333.5213.390Deceleration5261
2025-11-07395.34329.8810.630Deceleration5262
2025-10-31395.34326.2410.870Deceleration5363
2025-10-24395.34322.5912.910Deceleration5363
2025-10-17395.34318.9311.080Upward Expansion6367
2025-10-10395.34315.2812.540Upward Expansion6568
2025-10-03395.34311.629.310Upward Expansion6668
2025-09-26395.34307.978.060Upward Expansion6789
2025-09-19395.34304.319.310Upward Expansion6789
2025-09-12395.34300.657.280Upward Expansion8695
2025-09-05395.34297.008.620Upward Expansion9598
2025-08-29395.34293.3410.870Upward Expansion9598
2025-08-22395.34289.699.089819Deceleration9397
2025-08-15286.23โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-08286.23โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-01286.23โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-25286.23โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-18286.23โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-11286.23โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-04286.23285.92-25.520Deceleration3751
2025-06-27286.23285.91-25.680Deceleration3357
2025-06-20286.23285.89-25.090Deceleration3357
2025-06-13286.23285.87-27.460Deceleration3357
2025-06-06286.23290.91-29.080Deceleration-1751
2025-05-30286.23295.95-29.620Deceleration-4460
2025-05-23286.23300.99-31.020Deceleration-4460
2025-05-16286.23306.03-31.220Deceleration-4460
2025-05-09286.23311.08-30.120Downward Expansion-4460
2025-05-02286.23316.12-29.760Downward Expansion-4480
2025-04-25286.23321.16-31.460Downward Expansion-4480
2025-04-18286.23326.20-27.260Downward Expansion-4480
2025-04-11286.23332.73-25.700Downward Expansion-4480
2025-04-04285.69โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-28285.69โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-21285.69โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-14285.69โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-07285.69โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-28285.69โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-21285.69โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-14285.69385.11-32.550Downward Expansion-5562
2025-02-07285.69391.66-31.150Downward Expansion-5764
2025-01-31285.69398.21-29.190Downward Expansion-5865
2025-01-24285.69404.76-29.540Downward Expansion-6066
2025-01-17285.69411.31-27.730Downward Expansion-7069
2025-01-10285.69417.86-27.410Downward Expansion-7069
2025-01-03285.69424.41-26.640Downward Expansion-7089
2024-12-27285.69430.96-27.280Downward Expansion-7089
2024-12-20285.69437.51-27.840Downward Expansion-6989
2024-12-13285.69444.05-30.820Downward Expansion-8393
2024-12-06285.69450.60-30.620Downward Expansion-9478
2024-11-29285.69456.68-28.710Downward Expansion-9578
2024-11-22285.69462.90-29.793300Downward Expansion-9578
2024-11-15437.48469.127.070Downward Expansion-6568
2024-11-08437.48470.284.610Downward Expansion-6668
2024-11-01437.48471.447.420Downward Expansion-6789
2024-10-25437.48472.605.350Downward Expansion-6789
2024-10-18437.48473.773.100Downward Expansion-8695
2024-10-11437.48474.934.490Downward Expansion-9598
2024-10-04437.48476.294.280Rotation Down-9598
2024-09-27437.48474.213.8819385Rotation Down-5784
2024-09-20482.17โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-13482.17โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-06482.17โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-30482.17โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-23482.17โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-16482.17โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-09482.17450.7415.650Deceleration5765
2024-08-02482.17447.1817.750Deceleration5765
2024-07-26482.17443.6116.660Deceleration5765
2024-07-19482.17440.0415.000Deceleration5765
2024-07-12482.17436.4812.440Upward Expansion6367
2024-07-05482.17432.9118.130Upward Expansion6588
2024-06-28482.17429.3517.760Upward Expansion6688
2024-06-21482.17425.7816.830Upward Expansion6789
2024-06-14482.17422.2117.910Upward Expansion6789
2024-06-07482.17418.6516.150Upward Expansion6968
2024-05-31482.17415.0811.390Upward Expansion7269
2024-05-24482.17411.5210.640Upward Expansion7670
2024-05-17482.17407.786.229166Upward Expansion8072
2024-05-10467.87404.042.5215718Upward Expansion6367
2024-05-03472.33400.784.210Upward Expansion6568
2024-04-26472.33399.222.640Upward Expansion6668
2024-04-19472.33397.675.940Upward Expansion6789
2024-04-12472.33396.124.330Upward Expansion6789
2024-04-05472.33394.561.290Upward Expansion8394
2024-03-29472.33393.012.070Rotation Up9498
2024-03-22472.33391.452.997706Rotation Up6889
2024-03-15478.30389.904.511612Rotation Up6688
2024-03-08375.19โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-01375.19โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-23375.19โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-16375.19โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-09375.19โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-02375.19โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-26375.19406.18-23.160Downward Expansion-6287
2024-01-19375.19411.04-21.800Downward Expansion-6287
2024-01-12375.19415.91-22.580Downward Expansion-6287
2024-01-05375.19420.77-23.950Deceleration-6165
2023-12-29375.19425.63-26.140Deceleration-5262
2023-12-22375.19430.50-26.790Deceleration-5363
2023-12-15375.19435.36-27.200Downward Expansion-5363
2023-12-08375.19440.22-23.830Downward Expansion-6367
2023-12-01375.19445.09-23.350Downward Expansion-6579
2023-11-24375.19449.95-22.140Downward Expansion-6687
2023-11-17375.19454.81-21.910Downward Expansion-6789
2023-11-10375.19459.68-19.890Downward Expansion-6789
2023-11-03375.19464.54-20.017323Downward Expansion-6889
2023-10-27370.02470.15-17.440Downward Expansion-9297
2023-10-20370.02475.93-16.270Downward Expansion-9498
2023-10-13370.02481.71-18.2012051Downward Expansion-9397
2023-10-06425.70487.49-6.640Downward Expansion-6365
Price vs TrendAbove+1.3%
Trend directionRising+1.0%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+21.3%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+7.7%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+7.5%
Relative strength directionImproving+4.5%
Price momentumPositive+3.6%
Volume balanceSupply-ledร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

39 / ยฑ100

-10.1 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

49 /100

+17.2 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance51
Rotation Up34
Upward Expansion61
Deceleration45
Rotation Down25
Downward Expansion20

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 ยท 128 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 33%Deceleration 27%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 30%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Deceleration2026-09-042026-09-25New+0.0%
Upward Expansion2026-08-072026-08-28New+0.0%
Rotation Up2026-07-242026-07-31New+0.0%
Deceleration2026-07-102026-07-17New+0.0%
Rotation Down2026-06-122026-07-03New+10.2%
Upward Expansion2026-05-012026-06-05Developing-5.0%
Rotation Up2026-04-172026-04-24New+0.0%
Deceleration2026-02-202026-04-10Developing+12.0%
Upward Expansion2025-12-192026-02-13Developing-11.7%
Deceleration2025-10-242025-12-12Developing+21.8%
Upward Expansion2025-08-292025-10-17Developing+0.0%
Deceleration2025-05-162025-08-22Developing+38.1%
Downward Expansion2024-10-112025-05-09Established-34.6%
Rotation Down2024-09-272024-10-04New+0.0%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing48
Stage 2 ยท Advancing76
Stage 3 ยท Distribution71
Stage 4 ยท Declining24

Legacy result: Stage 2 ยท Stage 2A ยท Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
76/100
Current Relative Strength
7.52
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+3.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark
+6.2%
Industrials regime cohort
71th percentile14 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volumeร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volumeร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity MXN 492.90stable
Slow Activity MXN 490.62rising
Trend Reference MXN 486.34+1.3% close margin
Current Fair Value MXN 406.38+21.3% close margin
Structural low MXN 447.08shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +0.6%
Annualized volatility +21.7%
From structural high -4.5%
From structural low +24.7%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^MXX Regime survived Read
Near term14+0.0%-11.5% to +38.1%+35.7%+35.7%+1.6%+42.9%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate7+7.6%-40.8% to +38.1%+71.4%+71.4%+1.9%+0.0%Usable descriptive sample
Extended6+5.6%-40.6% to +77.9%+50.0%+50.0%+6.1%+16.7%Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle3-7.5%-38.9% to -0.1%+0.0%+0.0%-19.3%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context