Counter-trend rallies may occur, but primary structure and persistence do not yet support adding risk.
41
technical evidence
out of 100
out of 100
Week Ending: 4 September 2026
China CN Basic Materials Industry
Chemicals
For the week ending 04 September 2026, Chemicals declined 2.88% with 43 advancing, 136 declining, and 4 unchanged constituents. The index is equal weighted and the constituent tape shows uncapped security returns.
Current architecture
Unresolved
The Activity Lines, Trend Line and price acceptance remain genuinely mixed.
41
technical evidence
Index1970.69
1 week-2.88%
Breadth23%
Members183
Country
🇨🇳 China · CN
Sector
Basic Materials
Universe
country-listed
Price basis
Adjusted weekly close
Trend architecture
Index, activity fan and structural anchors
Rolling 156-week evidence. Trend Signal points mark weeks when price, trend and the activity fan confirmed together.
Index Value
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity Lines
Constructive architecture
Transitional architecture
Defensive architecture
Current architecture
Unresolved
3 completed weeks in this state
Trend acceptance
-5.2%
Index versus Trend Line
Persistence
50%
Positive regime, shorter trend weakening
Participation
23%
43 advancing, 136 declining
Investor positioning lens
Is the evidence ready for capital?
A rules-based technical classification using trend, breadth, persistence, relative strength and path quality.
Evidence balance
Reduce
Five-pillar map
Trend
40
Breadth
35
Persistence
34
Relative
40
Risk quality
76
What supports the view
- No major confirming factor has secured control.
What restrains conviction
- Index trend architecture has not delivered a durable upward expansion.
- Breadth remains too narrow or inconsistent for a high-conviction position.
- Constituent persistence remains divided or predominantly negative.
- The group is not yet delivering dependable relative outperformance.
- Stage 4 declining constituents exceed Stage 2 advancing constituents by 52 percentage points.
- The index is extended well above current Fair Value, increasing chase risk.
This is a weekly research classification, not personal investment advice. Sentiment is reported as an independent confirmation layer and does not alter the technical score.
Trend state and durability
Architecture, persistence and constituent regimes
The index path is tested against the underlying security-level trend evidence.
The Activity Lines, Trend Line and price acceptance remain genuinely mixed.
State age3 weeks
Trend gateDown
Fan width4.37%
Fast versus slow change4.95 pts
Above 0%
Below 17%
Six completed weeks of price acceptance relative to the full Activity Line fan.
Index persistence
50% agreement
Positive regime, shorter trend weakening
The long trend remains positive, but the 13-week horizon has turned against it.
13-week
-5.0%
26-week
-11.8%
39-week
1.9%
52-week
8.7%
Constituent trend persistence
99% coverage
Is the index move broadly durable?
46%positive
Coherent positive5%
Coherent negative33%
Average horizon agreement77%
Positive horizon share33%
Weakening positives50
Repairing negatives21
182 constituents measured as of 4 Sep 2026. Median trend age is 15 weeks.
Custom stage map
99% coverage
Where constituents sit in the cycle
67%Stage 4
Stage 1 · Basing5%9 securities
Stage 2 · Advancing15%28 securities
Stage 3 · Distribution13%23 securities
Stage 4 · Declining67%122 securities
Re-acceleration watch2
Transition watch28
Relative strength leaders18%
Fair Value repairs1
Measured as of 4 Sep 2026. Stages summarize price, Activity Line architecture, Fair Value position and relative evidence.
Architecture breadth
71/100 mean confidence
How market energy is distributed
Architecture breadth shows the distribution of expanding, rotating, balancing and contracting securities. It is diagnostic context and is not added as a second vote in the positioning score.
Capital rotation
Performance relative to Basic Materials
Relative index
13-week relative trend
Starting level
A rising relative line means this group is compounding faster than Basic Materials. A falling line means capital has done better in the parent benchmark.
Relative index94.2
13-week trend95.4
4-week trend change-0.13%
Weekly peer rank9 of 13
1 week
-0.4 pts
relative
4 weeks
-0.3 pts
relative
13 weeks
-0.5 pts
relative
26 weeks
0.0 pts
relative
52 weeks
-1.3 pts
relative
Market internals
Participation, dispersion and path risk
Equal-weight index evidence with constituent-level breadth and dispersion.
Breadth
Narrow
Participation quality
23%
advanced
- Advancing
- 43
- Declining
- 136
- Unchanged
- 4
Risk and persistence
52-week lens
Path quality
Annualised weekly volatility27.0%
Drawdown from 52-week high-13.4%
Positive weeks, last 1354%
Current directional run1 week
Turnover versus 13-week norm207%
Breadth impulse-25.3 pts
Cross-section
183 measured
Return distribution
Q1 -5.5%
Median -2.8%
Q3 0.0%
Average winner3.6%
Average loser-5.0%
Dispersion5.4 pts
Top-five upside share46%
Top-five capital share25%
Capital data coverage100%
Dispersion describes how far constituent outcomes are spreading apart. Capital concentration is contextual only; the index itself is equal weighted.
Momentum cycle
30-week persistence
Positive readings show expansion. Negative readings show contraction.
Breadth cycle
Net participation
Advancers less decliners as a percentage of measured constituents.
News and narrative
Does company news confirm the market tape?
Sentiment evidence is still developing
Qualified company-level news coverage is not yet broad enough to influence the group view.
0 qualified records across 183 measured constituents.Leadership tape
Leaders, laggards and contribution shape
Latest completed week, ranked on uncapped constituent returns.
Constituent ledger
Industry constituents
All 183 measured constituents, ranked by latest weekly return.
Rank
Ticker
Company
Exchange
Market cap
Close
Index contribution
Return
40
001369
Inner Mongolia Shuangxin Environmental Protection Materials Co., Ltd.
SHZ
14.34B
12.50
0.00 pts
0.40%
142
600063
Anhui Wanwei Updated High-Tech Material Industry Co.,Ltd
SHH
11.52B
5.57
-0.03 pts
-6.07%
The index uses capped equal-weight weekly constituent returns. The ledger shows uncapped security returns so outliers remain visible for research.