The evidence is constructive, but security selection and entry discipline still matter.
60
technical evidence
out of 100
out of 100
Week Ending: 11 September 2026
Japan JP Consumer Cyclical Industry
Specialty Retail
For the week ending 11 September 2026, Specialty Retail declined 2.40% with 7 advancing, 39 declining, and 1 unchanged constituents. The index is equal weighted and the constituent tape shows uncapped security returns.
Current architecture
Upward Expansion
The activity fan is positively ordered above a rising Trend Line with price accepted above it.
60
technical evidence
Index1939.38
1 week-2.40%
Breadth15%
Members47
Country
🇯🇵 Japan · JP
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Universe
country-listed
Price basis
Adjusted weekly close
Trend architecture
Index, activity fan and structural anchors
Rolling 156-week evidence. Trend Signal points mark weeks when price, trend and the activity fan confirmed together.
Index Value
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity Lines
Constructive architecture
Transitional architecture
Defensive architecture
Current architecture
Upward Expansion
14 completed weeks in this state
Trend acceptance
3.5%
Index versus Trend Line
Persistence
100%
Positive across every horizon
Participation
15%
7 advancing, 39 declining
Investor positioning lens
Is the evidence ready for capital?
A rules-based technical classification using trend, breadth, persistence, relative strength and path quality.
Evidence balance
Selective
Five-pillar map
Trend
75
Breadth
33
Persistence
63
Relative
48
Risk quality
95
What supports the view
- The index remains above a constructive Trend gate.
- Constituent trends show positive multi-horizon persistence.
What restrains conviction
- Breadth remains too narrow or inconsistent for a high-conviction position.
- The group is not yet delivering dependable relative outperformance.
- The index is extended well above current Fair Value, increasing chase risk.
- Positive contribution is concentrated in a small leadership cohort.
This is a weekly research classification, not personal investment advice. Sentiment is reported as an independent confirmation layer and does not alter the technical score.
Trend state and durability
Architecture, persistence and constituent regimes
The index path is tested against the underlying security-level trend evidence.
The activity fan is positively ordered above a rising Trend Line with price accepted above it.
State age14 weeks
Trend gateUp
Fan width3.77%
Fast versus slow change-0.15 pts
Above 67%
Below 0%
Six completed weeks of price acceptance relative to the full Activity Line fan.
Index persistence
100% agreement
Positive across every horizon
The 13, 26, 39 and 52-week trends all point upward, giving the advance broad horizon agreement.
13-week
4.3%
26-week
7.9%
39-week
13.2%
52-week
8.8%
Constituent trend persistence
100% coverage
Is the index move broadly durable?
55%positive
Coherent positive30%
Coherent negative9%
Average horizon agreement73%
Positive horizon share64%
Weakening positives11
Repairing negatives9
47 constituents measured as of 11 Sep 2026. Median trend age is 38 weeks.
Custom stage map
98% coverage
Where constituents sit in the cycle
41%Stage 2
Stage 1 · Basing13%6 securities
Stage 2 · Advancing41%19 securities
Stage 3 · Distribution20%9 securities
Stage 4 · Declining26%12 securities
Re-acceleration watch1
Transition watch9
Relative strength leaders24%
Fair Value repairs2
Measured as of 11 Sep 2026. Stages summarize price, Activity Line architecture, Fair Value position and relative evidence.
Architecture breadth
70/100 mean confidence
How market energy is distributed
Architecture breadth shows the distribution of expanding, rotating, balancing and contracting securities. It is diagnostic context and is not added as a second vote in the positioning score.
Capital rotation
Performance relative to Consumer Cyclical
Relative index
13-week relative trend
Starting level
A rising relative line means this group is compounding faster than Consumer Cyclical. A falling line means capital has done better in the parent benchmark.
Relative index107.4
13-week trend107.5
4-week trend change0.35%
Weekly peer rank15 of 22
1 week
-0.2 pts
relative
4 weeks
-0.3 pts
relative
13 weeks
-0.9 pts
relative
26 weeks
6.7 pts
relative
52 weeks
4.5 pts
relative
Market internals
Participation, dispersion and path risk
Equal-weight index evidence with constituent-level breadth and dispersion.
Breadth
Narrow
Participation quality
15%
advanced
- Advancing
- 7
- Declining
- 39
- Unchanged
- 1
Risk and persistence
52-week lens
Path quality
Annualised weekly volatility9.5%
Drawdown from 52-week high-3.4%
Positive weeks, last 1377%
Current directional run2 weeks
Turnover versus 13-week norm159%
Breadth impulse-39.9 pts
Cross-section
47 measured
Return distribution
Q1 -3.8%
Median -1.8%
Q3 -0.4%
Average winner1.1%
Average loser-3.1%
Dispersion3.0 pts
Top-five upside share91%
Top-five capital share59%
Capital data coverage100%
Dispersion describes how far constituent outcomes are spreading apart. Capital concentration is contextual only; the index itself is equal weighted.
Momentum cycle
30-week persistence
Positive readings show expansion. Negative readings show contraction.
Breadth cycle
Net participation
Advancers less decliners as a percentage of measured constituents.
News and narrative
Does company news confirm the market tape?
Sentiment evidence is still developing
Qualified company-level news coverage is not yet broad enough to influence the group view.
0 qualified records across 47 measured constituents.Leadership tape
Leaders, laggards and contribution shape
Latest completed week, ranked on uncapped constituent returns.
Constituent ledger
Industry constituents
All 47 measured constituents, ranked by latest weekly return.
Rank
Ticker
Company
Exchange
Market cap
Close
Index contribution
Return
The index uses capped equal-weight weekly constituent returns. The ledger shows uncapped security returns so outliers remain visible for research.