- The trend backdrop is active with a 4-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
P1GR34
SAO
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
The Progressive Corporation · Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Latest close
54.55 BRL
0.9%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is active. Price is 7.7% above the Trend Line and sits at 51.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.9%, after a -6.8% four-week move. The latest news-sentiment score is 63/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal.
Setup score
45
out of 100
Latest Close
54.55 BRL
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
0.9%
latest completed week
4W Return
-6.8%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
11.0%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
7.7%
4 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.9x
vs 13-week average
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
0.9%
Latest completed week; four-week move -6.8%.
Indicator stack
18/62
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 56.16%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
63/100
9 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 7.7% above the Trend Line and sits at 51.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.9%, after a -6.8% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.9x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.4012-week average 0.16
12-week confirmation
Trend active4/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure12/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.40Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -6.8% over four weeks, 11.0% over 12 weeks, and -9.5% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 4 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak4 weeks
Active weeks in one year4
Trend breadth7.7%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.84Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-38.6%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-1.98Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-26.2%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
A published fundamentals and factor snapshot is not available for this company.
No published fundamental snapshot is available for this company.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment63/100
Weighted news tone is positive across 9 relevant articles.
6 positive · 3 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-12.8%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.8%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher13 of 2613 weeks finished lower.
Best week+9.7%Week of 26 Jun.
Worst week-8.3%Week of 17 Jul.
Latest week+0.9%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains6
Modest gains7
Flat weeks0
Modest losses9
Sharp losses4
Recent vol4.8%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.7%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split25/27Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.8% / -2.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorBR Financial Services
4-week rank85 / 100
Group average0.8%
Trend breadth44.0%
Trend44.0%active weekly trend signals
MD68.0%positive activity pressure
RS50.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryBR Insurance - Property & Casualty
4-week rank6 / 6
Group average3.5%
Trend breadth66.7%
Trend66.7%active weekly trend signals
MD100.0%positive activity pressure
RS50.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape44/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 44/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis45/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 4/12, activity pressure 12/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.40; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 56.16%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 56.16% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors50/100No published factor snapshot is available yet.
Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment63/100Weighted news tone is positive across 9 relevant articles.
Is Brown Advisory’s Bet on Progressive’s Data Edge Reframing the PGR Investment Narrative? Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 54.55 BRL | 0.9% | 50.66 BRL | 51.99 BRL | 0.84 | -1.98 | 896 | On |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 54.05 BRL | 5.0% | 50.65 BRL | 51.79 BRL | 0.96 | -6.58 | 41 | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 51.48 BRL | -4.1% | 50.65 BRL | 51.60 BRL | 1.12 | -9.80 | 300 | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 53.66 BRL | -8.3% | 50.81 BRL | 51.42 BRL | 1.38 | -6.73 | 1.5K | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 58.51 BRL | 2.3% | 50.88 BRL | 51.22 BRL | 1.37 | -1.57 | 130 | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 57.20 BRL | 3.2% | 50.83 BRL | 51.01 BRL | 1.25 | -2.45 | 20 | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 55.43 BRL | 9.7% | 50.74 BRL | 50.81 BRL | 0.86 | -5.61 | 2.9K | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 50.54 BRL | 1.4% | 50.72 BRL | 50.60 BRL | 0.51 | -12.24 | 1.6K | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 49.82 BRL | 6.4% | 50.88 BRL | 50.42 BRL | 0.35 | -15.54 | 240 | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 46.82 BRL | -0.2% | 51.01 BRL | 50.25 BRL | 0.31 | -20.43 | 50 | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 46.92 BRL | -2.7% | 51.17 BRL | 50.10 BRL | 0.26 | -23.39 | 1.6K | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 48.23 BRL | -1.8% | 51.27 BRL | 49.95 BRL | 0.32 | -23.36 | 2.2K | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 49.13 BRL | 7.0% | 51.42 BRL | 49.79 BRL | 0.31 | -23.34 | 2.1K | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 45.92 BRL | -6.9% | 51.61 BRL | 49.63 BRL | 0.08 | -31.84 | 470 | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.