- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
CAA
ASX
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Capral Limited · Basic Materials · Aluminum
Latest close
11.54 AUD
-2.8%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -1.4% below the Trend Line and sits at 51.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.8%, after a 5.8% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 50/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal.
Setup score
44
out of 100
Latest Close
11.54 AUD
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
-2.8%
latest completed week
4W Return
5.8%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-5.3%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
78.8%
41 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.4x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-2.8%
Latest completed week; four-week move 5.8%.
Indicator stack
43/42
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
News sentiment
50/100
11 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -1.4% below the Trend Line and sits at 51.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.8%, after a 5.8% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.4x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.2312-week average 0.51
12-week confirmation
Trend active1/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership4/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.23Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 5.8% over four weeks, -5.3% over 12 weeks, and 3.6% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year41
Trend breadth78.8%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.66Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change44.7%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-4.71Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change11.1%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 09 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025
Field coverage 85%
Model confidence 68%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength99/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 2; rank 1 is best.
Value100/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 1; rank 1 is best.
Quality90/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 11; rank 1 is best.
Momentum83/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 18; rank 1 is best.
Growth89/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 12; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework82/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 5.1x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 0.3x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 3.4x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 16.4% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 36.0% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 4.4% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 4.7% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 8.7% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 13.5% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- 15.5% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -25.6% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 7/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 2.6% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 5.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 7.6% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 0.2x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment50/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 11 relevant articles.
1 positive · 10 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-10.6%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.3%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher11 of 2615 weeks finished lower.
Best week+13.0%Week of 31 Jul.
Worst week-6.1%Week of 20 Mar.
Latest week-2.8%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains4
Modest gains7
Flat weeks0
Modest losses13
Sharp losses2
Recent vol4.3%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.8%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split25/27Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew3.1% / -2.6%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorAU Basic Materials
4-week rank- / 100
Group average7.2%
Trend breadth21.0%
Trend21.0%active weekly trend signals
MD27.0%positive activity pressure
RS52.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryAU Aluminum
4-week rank1 / 6
Group average-4.1%
Trend breadth0.0%
Trend0.0%active weekly trend signals
MD0.0%positive activity pressure
RS0.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape43/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 43/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis21/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 1/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 4/12.
Activity pressure 0.23; No reversal markers Factors92/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 2; Small Cap Core rank 1 SVQF82/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 46.0 of 257 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment50/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 11 relevant articles.
Capral (ASX:CAA) Builds Shareholder Value Through Cash Generation and Aluminium Strategy Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 11.54 AUD | -2.8% | 11.70 AUD | 9.82 AUD | -0.66 | -4.71 | 18.1K | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 11.87 AUD | 13.0% | 11.71 AUD | 9.78 AUD | -0.90 | 1.12 | 56.0K | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 10.50 AUD | 0.5% | 11.70 AUD | 9.75 AUD | -1.15 | -8.40 | 26.4K | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 10.45 AUD | -4.2% | 11.74 AUD | 9.73 AUD | -1.11 | -9.18 | 304.0K | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 10.91 AUD | 1.4% | 11.81 AUD | 9.70 AUD | -1.19 | -5.30 | 11.5K | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 10.76 AUD | -2.8% | 11.86 AUD | 9.67 AUD | -1.13 | -6.94 | 2.8K | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 11.07 AUD | -0.5% | 11.92 AUD | 9.65 AUD | -1.09 | -3.32 | 3.7K | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 11.13 AUD | -3.1% | 11.95 AUD | 9.61 AUD | -1.08 | -3.43 | 909 | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 11.49 AUD | 2.4% | 11.96 AUD | 9.58 AUD | -0.85 | 0.05 | 25.9K | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 11.22 AUD | -2.3% | 11.95 AUD | 9.55 AUD | -0.52 | -0.13 | 84.1K | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 11.48 AUD | -3.4% | 11.95 AUD | 9.52 AUD | -0.34 | 1.04 | 7.9K | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 11.89 AUD | -2.5% | 11.93 AUD | 9.49 AUD | -0.06 | 5.62 | 44.9K | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 12.19 AUD | 0.2% | 11.89 AUD | 9.45 AUD | -0.01 | 8.71 | 66.3K | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 12.16 AUD | -1.9% | 11.84 AUD | 9.41 AUD | -0.06 | 7.22 | 20.1K | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.