- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Volume is elevated versus the 13-week average, confirming attention.
AAI
ASX
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Alcoa Corporation · Basic Materials · Aluminum
Latest close
68.34 AUD
6.3%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -20.9% below the Trend Line and sits at 32.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 6.3%, after a -3.7% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 49/100.
Setup score
29
out of 100
Latest Close
68.34 AUD
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
6.3%
latest completed week
4W Return
-3.7%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-23.5%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
78.8%
41 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.8x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 42.49% based on similar historical setup states.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
6.3%
Latest completed week; four-week move -3.7%.
Indicator stack
43/28
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 42.49%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
49/100
34 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -20.9% below the Trend Line and sits at 32.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 6.3%, after a -3.7% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.8x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.3412-week average 0.59
12-week confirmation
Trend active6/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership6/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.34Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers44 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 4 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -3.7% over four weeks, -23.5% over 12 weeks, and 47.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year41
Trend breadth78.8%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-1.32Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change18.6%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-13.53Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-262.7%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.
Factor week 09 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 91%
Model confidence 85%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength27/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 74; rank 1 is best.
Value11/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 90; rank 1 is best.
Quality14/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 87; rank 1 is best.
Momentum94/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 7; rank 1 is best.
Growth84/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 17; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework9/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 17.4x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 1.4x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.5x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 1.5% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 15.2% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 3.8% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 2.3% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 4.5% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 7.9% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 1250.0% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 6/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 0.8% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 0.8% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 0.7x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment49/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 34 relevant articles.
5 positive · 24 neutral · 5 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-42.0%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility7.4%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher12 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+18.4%Week of 3 Apr.
Worst week-14.1%Week of 19 Jun.
Latest week+6.3%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains7
Modest gains5
Flat weeks0
Modest losses5
Sharp losses9
Recent vol7.4%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol6.8%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split29/23Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew5.9% / -5.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorAU Basic Materials
4-week rank80 / 100
Group average7.2%
Trend breadth21.0%
Trend21.0%active weekly trend signals
MD27.0%positive activity pressure
RS52.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryAU Aluminum
4-week rank3 / 6
Group average-4.1%
Trend breadth0.0%
Trend0.0%active weekly trend signals
MD0.0%positive activity pressure
RS0.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape30/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 30/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis29/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 6/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 6/12.
Activity pressure 0.34; 4 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 42.49%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 42.49% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors33/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 52 SVQF9/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 234.0 of 257 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment49/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 34 relevant articles.
Alcoa (ASX:AAI) Shares Retreats From Recent Gains While Long-Term Momentum Holds Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 68.34 AUD | 6.3% | 86.41 AUD | 63.03 AUD | -1.32 | -13.53 | 1.8M | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 64.26 AUD | 0.0% | 87.16 AUD | 62.98 AUD | -1.44 | -15.69 | 2.5M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 64.24 AUD | -4.1% | 87.69 AUD | 62.97 AUD | -1.58 | -13.40 | 2.1M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 66.98 AUD | -5.7% | 88.18 AUD | 62.96 AUD | -1.66 | -9.59 | 884.4K | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 71.00 AUD | -2.9% | 88.37 AUD | 62.92 AUD | -1.62 | -3.73 | 1.4M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 73.09 AUD | -4.2% | 88.35 AUD | 62.84 AUD | -1.36 | -0.74 | 436.2K | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 76.29 AUD | -8.2% | 88.12 AUD | 62.74 AUD | -0.68 | 5.24 | 205.9K | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 83.14 AUD | -14.1% | 87.67 AUD | 62.60 AUD | -0.20 | 14.75 | 732.4K | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 96.83 AUD | -11.4% | 86.73 AUD | 62.40 AUD | -0.03 | 35.42 | 336.0K | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 109.3 AUD | 3.1% | 85.45 AUD | 62.04 AUD | -0.14 | 58.28 | 1.3M | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 106.1 AUD | 13.7% | 83.68 AUD | 61.56 AUD | -0.64 | 54.53 | 207.8K | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 93.31 AUD | 4.5% | 82.03 AUD | 61.09 AUD | -0.91 | 39.55 | 511.2K | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 89.31 AUD | 2.5% | 80.89 AUD | 60.75 AUD | -0.86 | 35.87 | 596.7K | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 87.16 AUD | -2.6% | 79.78 AUD | 60.45 AUD | -0.71 | 32.59 | 543.5K | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.