- The trend backdrop is active with a 45-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Next-week expectancy is positive at 61.96% based on similar historical setup states.
TYIA
GER
Week ended 02 Oct 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Johnson Controls International plc · Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
Latest close
137.85 EUR
5.3%
latest week
Weekly setup
Constructive, but selective
The weekly trend is active. Price is 12.2% above the Trend Line and sits at 100.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 5.3%, after a 12.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 50/100. Near-term considerations: price is close to its 52-week high; volume confirmation is below normal.
Setup score
69
out of 100
Latest Close
137.85 EUR
2 Oct 2026
1W Return
5.3%
latest completed week
4W Return
12.0%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
9.7%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
86.5%
45 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.3x
vs 13-week average
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- 2 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
5.3%
Latest completed week; four-week move 12.0%.
Indicator stack
93/38
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 61.96%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
50/100
11 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 12.2% above the Trend Line and sits at 100.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 5.3%, after a 12.0% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.3x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
14 Aug
21 Aug
28 Aug
4 Sep
11 Sep
18 Sep
25 Sep
2 Oct
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.7512-week average 0.77
12-week confirmation
Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.75Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 12.0% over four weeks, 9.7% over 12 weeks, and 202.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 45 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak45 weeks
Active weeks in one year45
Trend breadth86.5%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.73Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change18.8%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership19.37Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change213.9%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.
Factor week 25 Sep 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2026
Field coverage 97%
Model confidence 97%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength45/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 56; rank 1 is best.
Value12/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 89; rank 1 is best.
Quality67/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 34; rank 1 is best.
Momentum99/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 2; rank 1 is best.
Growth83/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 18; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 22.2x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 3.2x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 20.1x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 1.9% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 36.7% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 14.4% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 6.6% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 13.0% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 2.8% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- 99.5% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -39.8% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 6/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 1.1% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 7.4% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 8.5% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 2.0x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment50/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 11 relevant articles.
2 positive · 9 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown0.0%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.8%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
27 Mar
24 Apr
5 Jun
3 Jul
31 Jul
28 Aug
2 Oct
Weeks higher15 of 269 weeks finished lower.
Best week+8.8%Week of 5 Jun.
Worst week-6.1%Week of 21 Aug.
Latest week+5.3%Week of 2 Oct.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains6
Modest gains9
Flat weeks2
Modest losses8
Sharp losses1
Recent vol3.8%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol13.4%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split30/20Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew6.6% / -2.7%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorDE Industrials
4-week rank3 / 100
Group average6.0%
Trend breadth46.0%
Trend46.0%active weekly trend signals
MD39.0%positive activity pressure
RS44.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryDE Building Products & Equipment
4-week rank1 / 6
Group average-8.7%
Trend breadth33.3%
Trend33.3%active weekly trend signals
MD16.7%positive activity pressure
RS16.7%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape69/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 69/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis62/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 12/12.
Activity pressure 0.75; 2 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 61.96%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 61.96% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors54/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 4; Small Cap Core rank 84 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment50/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 11 relevant articles.
Johnson Controls Announces Fourth Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call Webcast Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 137.85 EUR | 5.3% | 122.82 EUR | 67.68 EUR | -0.73 | 19.37 | 45 | On |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 130.90 EUR | 6.6% | 122.29 EUR | 66.96 EUR | -0.96 | 13.47 | 170 | On |
| 18 Sep 2026 | 122.80 EUR | -2.1% | 121.82 EUR | 66.28 EUR | -1.09 | 7.71 | 576 | On |
| 11 Sep 2026 | 125.44 EUR | 1.9% | 121.43 EUR | 65.66 EUR | -1.15 | 9.56 | 768 | On |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 123.10 EUR | 2.5% | 120.59 EUR | 65.02 EUR | -0.90 | 6.17 | 51 | On |
| 28 Aug 2026 | 120.06 EUR | -2.6% | 119.68 EUR | 64.39 EUR | -0.63 | 2.07 | 10 | On |
| 21 Aug 2026 | 123.25 EUR | -6.1% | 118.96 EUR | 63.79 EUR | -0.52 | 7.12 | 10 | On |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 131.30 EUR | -1.7% | 118.03 EUR | 63.16 EUR | -0.37 | 13.47 | 399 | On |
| 7 Aug 2026 | 133.60 EUR | 5.6% | 117.11 EUR | 62.48 EUR | -0.57 | 16.77 | 16 | On |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 126.50 EUR | 0.2% | 116.04 EUR | 61.79 EUR | -0.62 | 14.21 | 8 | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 126.30 EUR | 2.4% | 115.16 EUR | 61.14 EUR | -0.29 | 16.91 | 7 | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 123.35 EUR | -1.9% | 114.16 EUR | 60.49 EUR | -0.06 | 15.88 | 110 | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 125.70 EUR | -3.7% | 113.27 EUR | 59.87 EUR | 0.16 | 17.48 | 7 | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 130.50 EUR | 2.2% | 112.38 EUR | 59.22 EUR | 0.05 | 19.07 | 0 | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.