- The trend backdrop is active with a 9-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
KME
ASX
Week ended 09 Oct 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Kip McGrath Education Centres Limited · Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services
Latest close
0.665 AUD
0.8%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is active. Price is 12.7% above the Trend Line and sits at 77.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.8%, after a -2.9% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 50/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal.
Setup score
53
out of 100
Latest Close
0.665 AUD
9 Oct 2026
1W Return
0.8%
latest completed week
4W Return
-2.9%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
35.7%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
51.9%
27 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.6x
vs 13-week average
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 30.10% based on similar historical setup states.
- 2 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Recent volatility is running well above the one-year baseline.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
0.8%
Latest completed week; four-week move -2.9%.
Indicator stack
60/62
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 30.10%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
50/100
5 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 12.7% above the Trend Line and sits at 77.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.8%, after a -2.9% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.6x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
14 Aug
21 Aug
28 Aug
4 Sep
11 Sep
18 Sep
25 Sep
2 Oct
9 Oct
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.7612-week average 0.47
12-week confirmation
Trend active9/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure9/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership11/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.76Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -2.9% over four weeks, 35.7% over 12 weeks, and 14.7% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 9 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak9 weeks
Active weeks in one year27
Trend breadth51.9%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.79Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-31.4%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership16.31Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-23.3%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 02 Oct 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2025
Field coverage 94%
Model confidence 40%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength97/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 4; rank 1 is best.
Value94/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 7; rank 1 is best.
Quality85/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 16; rank 1 is best.
Momentum92/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 9; rank 1 is best.
Growth11/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 90; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 1.1x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 4.0x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 14.0% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 99.3% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 10.3% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 13.7% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 16.5% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- -2.8% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- - Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 4/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 9.1% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 9.1% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- -0.5x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment50/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 5 relevant articles.
0 positive · 5 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-8.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility12.6%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
17 Apr
15 May
12 Jun
10 Jul
7 Aug
4 Sep
9 Oct
Weeks higher13 of 2611 weeks finished lower.
Best week+45.8%Week of 31 Jul.
Worst week-11.3%Week of 26 Jun.
Latest week+0.8%Week of 9 Oct.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains2
Modest gains11
Flat weeks2
Modest losses7
Sharp losses4
Recent vol12.6%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol7.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split21/22Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.8% / -3.4%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorAU Consumer Defensive
4-week rank45 / 59
Group average2.4%
Trend breadth28.8%
Trend28.8%active weekly trend signals
MD61.0%positive activity pressure
RS30.5%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryAU Education & Training Services
4-week rank5 / 9
Group average5.2%
Trend breadth33.3%
Trend33.3%active weekly trend signals
MD66.7%positive activity pressure
RS22.2%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape52/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 52/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis70/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 9/12, activity pressure 9/12, relative leadership 11/12.
Activity pressure 0.76; 2 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 30.10%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 30.10% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors91/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 58; Small Cap Core rank 8 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment50/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 5 relevant articles.
Crimson Consulting Australia Lifts Stake in Kip McGrath Education Centres to 38.77% via Takeover Offer Acceptances Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | 0.665 AUD | 0.8% | 0.5901 AUD | 0.475 AUD | 0.79 | 16.31 | 358.3K | On |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 0.66 AUD | -2.7% | 0.5868 AUD | 0.4741 AUD | 0.97 | 16.29 | 721.7K | On |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 0.678 AUD | -0.3% | 0.5836 AUD | 0.4737 AUD | 0.98 | 20.14 | 184.1K | On |
| 18 Sep 2026 | 0.6803 AUD | -0.7% | 0.579 AUD | 0.4731 AUD | 1.15 | 20.12 | 1.7M | On |
| 11 Sep 2026 | 0.685 AUD | 1.4% | 0.5738 AUD | 0.4726 AUD | 1.15 | 21.27 | 1.3M | On |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 0.6757 AUD | 0.7% | 0.5684 AUD | 0.4722 AUD | 1.13 | 16.57 | 77.4K | On |
| 28 Aug 2026 | 0.671 AUD | -6.8% | 0.5642 AUD | 0.4718 AUD | 1.26 | 14.91 | 2.1M | On |
| 21 Aug 2026 | 0.72 AUD | 0.0% | 0.561 AUD | 0.4713 AUD | 1.25 | 23.97 | 18.0K | On |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 0.72 AUD | 0.7% | 0.5563 AUD | 0.4704 AUD | 0.60 | 23.73 | 70.5K | On |
| 7 Aug 2026 | 0.715 AUD | 2.1% | 0.5513 AUD | 0.4695 AUD | -0.06 | 21.42 | 307.8K | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 0.70 AUD | 45.8% | 0.5471 AUD | 0.4683 AUD | -0.78 | 23.28 | 748.0K | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 0.48 AUD | -2.0% | 0.5434 AUD | 0.4669 AUD | -1.52 | -13.13 | 50.5K | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 0.49 AUD | 0.0% | 0.5471 AUD | 0.4671 AUD | -1.54 | -11.81 | 0 | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 0.49 AUD | 2.1% | 0.5504 AUD | 0.4673 AUD | -1.45 | -12.11 | 0 | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.