- The trend backdrop is active with a 67-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
2914
JPX
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Japan Tobacco Inc. · Consumer Defensive · Tobacco
Latest close
7,108 JPY
-0.4%
latest week
Weekly setup
Constructive, but selective
The weekly trend is active. Price is 18.0% above the Trend Line and sits at 95.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.4%, after a 16.2% four-week move. The latest news-sentiment score is 59/100. Near-term considerations: price is close to its 52-week high.
Setup score
81
out of 100
Latest Close
7,108 JPY
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
-0.4%
latest completed week
4W Return
16.2%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
15.1%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
100.0%
52 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.4x
vs 13-week average
- 6 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-0.4%
Latest completed week; four-week move 16.2%.
Indicator stack
100/100
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 64.07%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
59/100
32 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 18.0% above the Trend Line and sits at 95.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.4%, after a 16.2% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.4x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.8512-week average 0.76
12-week confirmation
Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure3/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership2/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.85Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers66 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 6 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 16.2% over four weeks, 15.1% over 12 weeks, and 52.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 67 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak67 weeks
Active weeks in one year52
Trend breadth100.0%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.47Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change371.6%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership4.81Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change134.8%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
A published fundamentals and factor snapshot is not available for this company.
No published fundamental snapshot is available for this company.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment59/100
Weighted news tone is positive across 32 relevant articles.
5 positive · 27 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-1.5%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.0%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+10.4%Week of 31 Jul.
Worst week-4.6%Week of 6 Mar.
Latest week-0.4%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains2
Modest gains12
Flat weeks0
Modest losses11
Sharp losses1
Recent vol4.0%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.0%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split32/20Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.5% / -1.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorJP Consumer Defensive
4-week rank4 / 100
Group average3.2%
Trend breadth41.0%
Trend41.0%active weekly trend signals
MD81.0%positive activity pressure
RS15.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryJP Tobacco
4-week rank1 / 1
Group average16.2%
Trend breadth100.0%
Trend100.0%active weekly trend signals
MD100.0%positive activity pressure
RS100.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape80/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 80/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis49/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 3/12, relative leadership 2/12.
Activity pressure 0.85; 6 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 64.07%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 64.07% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors50/100No published factor snapshot is available yet.
Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment59/100Weighted news tone is positive across 32 relevant articles.
Is Japan Tobacco (TSE:2914) Expensive As Earnings, Guidance And Dividend Rise? Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 7,108 JPY | -0.4% | 6,022 JPY | 4,386 JPY | 1.47 | 4.81 | 23.5M | On |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 7,135 JPY | 10.4% | 5,978 JPY | 4,358 JPY | 1.05 | 7.18 | 33.4M | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 6,461 JPY | 1.8% | 5,928 JPY | 4,330 JPY | 0.43 | -3.30 | 20.5M | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 6,347 JPY | 3.8% | 5,900 JPY | 4,306 JPY | -0.11 | -4.31 | 21.7M | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 6,117 JPY | 1.0% | 5,877 JPY | 4,283 JPY | -0.54 | -13.82 | 21.3M | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 6,057 JPY | 2.0% | 5,861 JPY | 4,261 JPY | -0.65 | -16.36 | 5.2M | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 5,936 JPY | -0.3% | 5,846 JPY | 4,240 JPY | -0.74 | -17.83 | 8.2M | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 5,954 JPY | -1.7% | 5,839 JPY | 4,219 JPY | -0.53 | -20.02 | 4.6M | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 6,054 JPY | 3.4% | 5,829 JPY | 4,199 JPY | -0.51 | -12.63 | 7.7M | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 5,854 JPY | -3.1% | 5,812 JPY | 4,178 JPY | -0.37 | -16.51 | 4.0M | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 6,044 JPY | 0.5% | 5,798 JPY | 4,158 JPY | -0.39 | -13.80 | 23.3M | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 6,012 JPY | -2.7% | 5,771 JPY | 4,136 JPY | -0.64 | -10.54 | 18.2M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 6,175 JPY | 9.2% | 5,733 JPY | 4,114 JPY | -0.73 | -5.55 | 27.6M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 5,654 JPY | -2.0% | 5,690 JPY | 4,092 JPY | -1.02 | -15.49 | 10.2M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.