- The trend backdrop is active with a 15-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
CGF
ASX
Week ended 25 Sep 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Challenger Limited · Financial Services · Insurance - Life
Latest close
10.23 AUD
0.3%
latest week
Weekly setup
Constructive trend
The weekly trend is active. Price is 10.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 85.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.3%, after a 9.1% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 51/100.
Setup score
73
out of 100
Latest Close
10.23 AUD
25 Sep 2026
1W Return
0.3%
latest completed week
4W Return
9.1%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-1.0%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
71.2%
37 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.1x
vs 13-week average
- 4 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
0.3%
Latest completed week; four-week move 9.1%.
Indicator stack
84/72
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 59.12%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
51/100
5 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 10.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 85.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.3%, after a 9.1% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.1x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
14 Aug
21 Aug
28 Aug
4 Sep
11 Sep
18 Sep
25 Sep
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.7412-week average 0.80
12-week confirmation
Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure10/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.74Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers44 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 4 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 9.1% over four weeks, -1.0% over 12 weeks, and 22.7% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 15 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak15 weeks
Active weeks in one year37
Trend breadth71.2%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.13Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change243.6%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership14.00Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change1096.1%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 18 Sep 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2026
Field coverage 94%
Model confidence 94%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength98/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 3; rank 1 is best.
Value93/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 8; rank 1 is best.
Quality91/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 10; rank 1 is best.
Momentum91/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 10; rank 1 is best.
Growth17/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 84; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework49/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 13.7x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 3.9x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.8x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 12.8% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- - Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 70.2% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 106.7% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 7.3% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- -23.1% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- 124.4% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 372.8% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 5/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 3.2% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 1.7% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 5.0% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 6.2x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment51/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 5 relevant articles.
3 positive · 2 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-4.6%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.4%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
3 Apr
1 May
29 May
26 Jun
24 Jul
21 Aug
25 Sep
Weeks higher17 of 269 weeks finished lower.
Best week+6.3%Week of 4 Sep.
Worst week-6.3%Week of 29 May.
Latest week+0.3%Week of 25 Sep.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains5
Modest gains12
Flat weeks0
Modest losses7
Sharp losses2
Recent vol3.4%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.6%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split31/20Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.8% / -3.1%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorAU Financial Services
4-week rank4 / 100
Group average-3.5%
Trend breadth45.0%
Trend45.0%active weekly trend signals
MD55.0%positive activity pressure
RS49.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryAU Insurance - Life
4-week rank1 / 2
Group average8.1%
Trend breadth50.0%
Trend50.0%active weekly trend signals
MD100.0%positive activity pressure
RS100.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape74/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 74/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis75/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 10/12, relative leadership 12/12.
Activity pressure 0.74; 4 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 59.12%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 59.12% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors92/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 5 SVQF49/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 134.5 of 262 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment51/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 5 relevant articles.
Challenger Limited (ASX:CGF) Sees Heavy Trading as Shares Rise - Why Investors Are Watching Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026 | 10.23 AUD | 0.3% | 9.29 AUD | 7.26 AUD | 0.13 | 14.00 | 6.0M | On |
| 18 Sep 2026 | 10.20 AUD | -0.3% | 9.24 AUD | 7.23 AUD | 0.10 | 13.29 | 14.7M | On |
| 11 Sep 2026 | 10.23 AUD | 2.6% | 9.20 AUD | 7.20 AUD | 0.05 | 13.92 | 11.5M | On |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 9.97 AUD | 6.3% | 9.14 AUD | 7.18 AUD | -0.06 | 8.21 | 11.2M | On |
| 28 Aug 2026 | 9.38 AUD | -1.4% | 9.10 AUD | 7.15 AUD | -0.09 | 1.17 | 12.6M | On |
| 21 Aug 2026 | 9.51 AUD | -2.0% | 9.09 AUD | 7.13 AUD | 0.00 | 3.22 | 6.6M | On |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 9.71 AUD | -1.0% | 9.07 AUD | 7.11 AUD | 0.23 | 4.93 | 1.3M | On |
| 7 Aug 2026 | 9.81 AUD | 1.8% | 9.05 AUD | 7.08 AUD | 0.57 | 4.60 | 1.4M | On |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 9.63 AUD | -6.0% | 9.02 AUD | 7.06 AUD | 0.83 | 6.29 | 2.1M | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 10.25 AUD | -3.9% | 9.01 AUD | 7.04 AUD | 1.04 | 16.10 | 1.1M | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 10.67 AUD | 0.9% | 8.98 AUD | 7.01 AUD | 1.03 | 21.18 | 701.9K | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 10.58 AUD | 2.4% | 8.94 AUD | 6.98 AUD | 0.96 | 20.71 | 875.4K | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 10.33 AUD | 5.9% | 8.88 AUD | 6.95 AUD | 0.86 | 18.01 | 845.4K | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 9.75 AUD | -0.8% | 8.84 AUD | 6.92 AUD | 0.76 | 12.98 | 795.8K | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.