CGF ASX Week ended 07 Aug 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Challenger Limited · Financial Services · Insurance - Life

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Latest close 9.99 AUD
1.8% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is active. Price is 10.2% above the Trend Line and sits at 76.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 1.8%, after a -5.6% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 51/100.

Setup score 61 out of 100
Latest Close 9.99 AUD 7 Aug 2026
1W Return 1.8% latest completed week
4W Return -5.6% short-term follow-through
12W Return 8.6% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 71.2% 37 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.3x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 8-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • 4 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 1.8% Latest completed week; four-week move -5.6%. Indicator stack 67/69 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 59.28% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. News sentiment 51/100 34 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 10.2% above the Trend Line and sits at 76.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 1.8%, after a -5.6% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.3x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul 7 Aug
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.8712-week average 0.63

12-week confirmation

Trend active8/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure12/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.87Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers44 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 4 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -5.6% over four weeks, 8.6% over 12 weeks, and 23.8% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 8 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W1.8%
4W-5.6%
12W8.6%
26W13.9%
52W23.8%
Active trend streak8 weeks
Active weeks in one year37
Trend breadth71.2%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.04Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-2.5%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership6.41Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-69.0%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 09 Aug 2026 Financial statements through 30 Jun 2025 Field coverage 82% Model confidence 42%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength29/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 72; rank 1 is best.
Value16/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 85; rank 1 is best.
Quality13/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 88; rank 1 is best.
Momentum92/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 9; rank 1 is best.
Growth94/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 7; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
35.4x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
3.0x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
12.9x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
2.8%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
32.6%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
-53.6%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
17.4%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
-8.1%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
16.0%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
47.6%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-52.6%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
5/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
3.1%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.8%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
3.9%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
6.8x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment51/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 34 relevant articles.

5 positive · 27 neutral · 2 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-7.9%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.7%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher18 of 268 weeks finished lower.
Best week+7.9%Week of 20 Mar.
Worst week-10.5%Week of 6 Mar.
Latest week+1.8%Week of 7 Aug.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains6
Modest gains12
Flat weeks0
Modest losses3
Sharp losses5
Recent vol3.7%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.5%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split33/18Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.6% / -3.3%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

IndustryAU Insurance - Life
4-week rank3 / 3
Group average-0.1%
Trend breadth66.7%
Trend66.7%active weekly trend signals
MD33.3%positive activity pressure
RS66.7%positive relative leadership

Four-week leaders

CVW · ASX9.2%NOL · ASX-3.8%CGF · ASX-5.6%
08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape64/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 64/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis73/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 8/12, activity pressure 12/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 0.87; 4 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 59.28%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 59.28% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors35/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 6 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment51/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 34 relevant articles.

Why Is Challenger (ASX:CGF) a Retirement Gauge? Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings50/100

No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
7 Aug 20269.99 AUD1.8%9.06 AUD7.08 AUD1.046.417.2MOn
31 Jul 20269.81 AUD-6.0%9.03 AUD7.06 AUD1.278.179.6MOn
24 Jul 202610.44 AUD-2.2%9.01 AUD7.04 AUD1.3318.205.6MOn
17 Jul 202610.67 AUD0.9%8.98 AUD7.01 AUD1.1921.185.0MOn
10 Jul 202610.58 AUD2.4%8.94 AUD6.98 AUD1.0720.717.7MOn
3 Jul 202610.33 AUD5.9%8.88 AUD6.95 AUD0.8618.01845.4KOn
26 Jun 20269.75 AUD-0.8%8.84 AUD6.92 AUD0.7612.98795.8KOn
19 Jun 20269.83 AUD2.7%8.80 AUD6.90 AUD0.5913.533.1MOn
12 Jun 20269.57 AUD4.9%8.76 AUD6.87 AUD0.5911.311.4MOff
5 Jun 20269.12 AUD2.9%8.73 AUD6.85 AUD0.648.708.4MOff
29 May 20268.86 AUD-6.3%8.72 AUD6.82 AUD0.564.672.7MOff
22 May 20269.46 AUD2.8%8.73 AUD6.80 AUD0.4613.048.4MOff
15 May 20269.20 AUD4.1%8.71 AUD6.77 AUD0.1010.7712.0MOff
8 May 20268.84 AUD1.1%8.69 AUD6.75 AUD-0.335.528.6MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.

Evidence context