- The trend backdrop is active with a 3-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
ACGL
NASDAQ
Week ended 31 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Arch Capital Group Ltd. · Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified
Latest close
100.5 USD
-2.7%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is active. Price is 4.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 73.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.7%, after a -1.6% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is mixed with 38/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 52/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 1d.
Setup score
58
out of 100
Latest Close
100.5 USD
31 Jul 2026
1W Return
-2.7%
latest completed week
4W Return
-1.6%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
7.2%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
50.0%
26 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.0x
vs 13-week average
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- 2 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Latest weekly return ranks in the weaker part of its sector group.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-2.7%
Latest completed week; four-week move -1.6%.
Indicator stack
38/100
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 55.74%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Mixed
38/100 conviction; expected move 4.6%.
News sentiment
52/100
30 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
1d
Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 4.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 73.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.7%, after a -1.6% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.0x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.4112-week average 0.32
12-week confirmation
Trend active5/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure4/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership1/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.41Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -1.6% over four weeks, 7.2% over 12 weeks, and 14.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 3 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak3 weeks
Active weeks in one year26
Trend breadth50.0%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.77Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change629.4%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-2.38Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change50.6%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 02 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2026
Field coverage 100%
Model confidence 100%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength98/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 3; rank 1 is best.
Value95/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 6; rank 1 is best.
Quality90/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 11; rank 1 is best.
Momentum72/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 29; rank 1 is best.
Growth74/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 27; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 7.3x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 1.8x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 6.8x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 16.0% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 46.2% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 28.4% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 32.0% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 17.5% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 0.7% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- 25.7% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -1.2% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 8/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 0.1% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 5.4% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 5.5% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 0.6x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningMixed
ACGL shows mixed options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.27, expected move of 4.6%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.
Conviction38/100
Expected move4.6%
Put/call volume1.27
Insider activity17 / 3
17 acquisitions and 3 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment52/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 30 relevant articles.
10 positive · 15 neutral · 5 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings1dNext report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move4.6%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-6.1%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.3%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
6 Feb
6 Mar
3 Apr
1 May
29 May
26 Jun
31 Jul
Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+7.0%Week of 26 Jun.
Worst week-7.2%Week of 29 May.
Latest week-2.7%Week of 31 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains3
Modest gains11
Flat weeks0
Modest losses11
Sharp losses1
Recent vol3.3%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol2.8%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split29/23Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.3% / -2.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Financial Services
4-week rank80 / 100
Group average3.0%
Trend breadth64.0%
Trend64.0%active weekly trend signals
MD87.0%positive activity pressure
RS56.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Insurance - Diversified
4-week rank12 / 14
Group average-0.4%
Trend breadth64.3%
Trend64.3%active weekly trend signals
MD71.4%positive activity pressure
RS28.6%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape58/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 58/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis31/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 5/12, activity pressure 4/12, relative leadership 1/12.
Activity pressure 0.41; 2 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 55.74%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 55.74% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors89/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 11 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options60/100ACGL shows mixed options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.27, expected move of 4.6%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.
Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 4.6% Sentiment52/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 30 relevant articles.
Lazard Asset Management LLC Acquires 19,364 Shares of Arch Capital Group Ltd. $ACGL Insiders17 / 317 acquisitions and 3 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings1dNext report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 100.5 USD | -2.7% | 96.10 USD | 90.76 USD | 0.77 | -2.38 | 10.7M | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 103.4 USD | 2.0% | 95.88 USD | 90.58 USD | 0.76 | 0.74 | 10.2M | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 101.3 USD | 0.3% | 95.63 USD | 90.39 USD | 0.59 | -2.87 | 8.0M | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 101.1 USD | -1.1% | 95.46 USD | 90.24 USD | 0.24 | -7.33 | 8.0M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 102.2 USD | 4.8% | 95.22 USD | 90.06 USD | -0.14 | -4.82 | 7.4M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 97.54 USD | 7.0% | 94.87 USD | 89.86 USD | -0.57 | -8.59 | 11.2M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 91.18 USD | -0.5% | 94.75 USD | 89.69 USD | -0.84 | -18.67 | 11.7M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 91.66 USD | 0.5% | 94.79 USD | 89.55 USD | -0.72 | -16.58 | 11.6M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 91.19 USD | 2.1% | 94.82 USD | 89.40 USD | -0.63 | -15.58 | 11.7M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 89.34 USD | -7.2% | 94.77 USD | 89.25 USD | -0.49 | -21.53 | 13.2M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 96.30 USD | 2.5% | 94.66 USD | 89.11 USD | -0.36 | -13.64 | 11.4M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 93.98 USD | 0.2% | 94.36 USD | 88.92 USD | -0.35 | -15.19 | 13.1M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 93.80 USD | -0.0% | 94.11 USD | 88.78 USD | -0.16 | -16.14 | 12.7M | On |
| 1 May 2026 | 93.82 USD | -2.5% | 94.07 USD | 88.65 USD | -0.15 | -12.18 | 12.5M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.