Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
ACGL options intelligence
Arch Capital Group Ltd. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
41
Market data through 16 Sep 2026
Checked 17 Sep 2026 13:06 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
ACGL currently carries bearish options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
2.4%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
3.11
Put-side skew
Trend fit
57
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+0.8%
RS -8.5
Expected move
2.4%
Put-call volume
3.11
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.40
Max pain
100.00
Underlying
96.09
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
190
Research Brief
ACGL has a bearish chain read with 41/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 93.81–98.37; The largest call open-interest concentration is 100.00; the largest put concentration is 85.00. The most active strike by current volume is 95.00.
Priced range93.81–98.37
Call concentration100.00
Put concentration85.00
Max pain reference100.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 93.81 to 98.37. Max pain at 100.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
93.8196.09 ± 2.2898.37
Confirmation level
A close beyond 98.37 or below 93.81 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 41/100
Pressure is 53/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure53 × 42%
+22.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation1 × 22%
+0.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement57 × 26%
+14.7
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility37 × 10%
+3.7
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 100.00; the largest put concentration is 85.00. The most active strike by current volume is 95.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
3
50.00-48.0%
0
0
55.00-42.8%
27
0
60.00-37.6%
119
0
65.00-32.4%
0
49
70.00-27.2%
7
8
75.00-21.9%
6
25
80.00-16.7%
8
1368
85.00-11.5%
4
1104
90.00-6.3%
28
847
95.00-1.1%
59
304
100.004.1%
826
0
105.009.3%
150
0
110.0014.5%
87
0
115.0019.7%
61
0
120.0024.9%
10
0
125.0030.1%
0
0
130.0035.3%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Negative gamma proxy
Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile-$709,086Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak100.00+$372,786
Negative peak95.00-$1.1M
Nearest balance98.75Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
50.00-48.0%
-$15
65.00-32.4%
-$15
70.00-27.2%
-$802
75.00-21.9%
-$58
80.00-16.7%
-$450
85.00-11.5%
-$91,069
90.00-6.3%
-$210,451
95.00-1.1%
-$1.1M
100.004.1%
+$372,786
105.009.3%
+$221,183
110.0014.5%
+$69,793
115.0019.7%
+$28,014
120.0024.9%
+$13,115
125.0030.1%
+$1,673
140.0045.7%
+$6
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.40
18 Sep
2d
0.16
16 Oct
30d
0.25
20 Nov
65d
0.23
18 Dec
93d
0.24
19 Mar
184d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 18 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 44% of the time.
Directional follow-through44%
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move1.3%
16 Sep
Bearish · 41
0.8% through expiry
2.4% priced · v2.0
14 Sep
Bearish · 45
0.8% through expiry
4.1% priced · v2.0
10 Sep
Bullish · 34
-1.2% through expiry
4.8% priced · v2.0
8 Sep
Mixed · 39
-1.2% through expiry
5.0% priced · v2.0
4 Sep
Bearish · 54
-1.2% through expiry
3.8% priced · v2.0
2 Sep
Bullish · 39
-2.0% through expiry
3.6% priced · v2.0
28 Aug
Bullish · 41
-2.0% through expiry
3.8% priced · v2.0
25 Aug
Bullish · 42
-2.5% through expiry
4.1% priced · v2.0
24 Aug
Bullish · 45
-2.5% through expiry
3.5% priced · v2.0
21 Aug
Mixed · 29
-2.5% through expiry
3.9% priced · v2.0
20 Aug
Bullish · 42
0.7% through expiry
1.9% priced · v2.0
19 Aug
Bullish · 33
0.7% through expiry
2.3% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 16 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 190 / 190
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $22,060 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-53
1W price+0.8%
Call premium62%
Put premium38%
Notional split
C 62% / P 38%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
57/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $11,875 estimated gross traded notional, and 54% of visible notional.
$11,875
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
puts cluster with 16 contracts traded, $5,800 estimated gross traded notional, and 26% of visible notional.
$5,800
Puts · 22-45 days · ATM
puts cluster with 13 contracts traded, $2,112 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$2,112
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM
calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $630 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$630
Puts · 0-7 days · ATM
puts cluster with 30 contracts traded, $525 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$525
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The signal is live, but the strongest framework tags are still developing.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 27 completed sessions
Volume rank22th
Volume/OI rank22th
IV rank89th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close96.89
1W+0.8%
RS-8.5
Fair value+5.5%
Options pressure-53
Speculation1
Volatility37
Trend fit57
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 3.5% · 13 sessions
23th
90d avg - · 27/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 27/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.31 · 13 sessions
85th
90d avg - · 27/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 27/60 sessions
-
30d avg 1.71 · 13 sessions
92th
90d avg - · 27/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 27/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.02 · 13 sessions
23th
90d avg - · 27/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 27/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
31 Jul 14:23
Mixed
Pressure -7
Move 5.2%
31 Jul 21:46
Mixed
Pressure -9
Move 5.5%
2 Aug 15:08
Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 4.6%
3 Aug 21:31
Mixed
Pressure -5
Move 3.9%
4 Aug 12:42
Bullish
Pressure 81
Move 3.9%
5 Aug 00:00
Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 4.0%
5 Aug 11:16
Mixed
Pressure 2
Move 4.0%
6 Aug 10:16
Bearish
Pressure -66
Move 4.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 27
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 119
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 49
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 25
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 1368
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.40
Put-call5.75
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.16
Put-call4.33
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.25
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.23
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts40
Avg IV0.24
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.28
Skew-0.09
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.04
Put IV0.24
Skew0.20
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.27
Skew0.02
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.24
Skew-
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.25
Skew0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractACGL260918P00095000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike95.00
Volume30
OI847
IV0.28
ContractACGL260918P00100000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike100.00
Volume16
OI304
IV0.59
ContractACGL261016P00095000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike95.00
Volume13
OI367
IV0.24
ContractACGL270319C00075000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike75.00
Volume5
OI-
IV0.26
ContractACGL260918C00100000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike100.00
Volume4
OI826
IV0.37
ContractACGL260918C00095000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike95.00
Volume3
OI59
IV0.25
ContractACGL261016C00100000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike100.00
Volume3
OI38
IV0.04
ContractACGL261120C00100000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike100.00
Volume2
OI98
IV0.22
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.