Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
ACGL options intelligence
Arch Capital Group Ltd. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
41
Market data through 3 Aug 2026
Checked 4 Aug 2026 02:35 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
ACGL currently carries bullish options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
3.9%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.10
Call-side skew
Trend fit
11
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-2.7%
RS -2.4
Expected move
3.9%
Put-call volume
0.10
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.20
Max pain
100.00
Underlying
100.53
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
190
Research Brief
ACGL has a bullish chain read with 41/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 96.58–104.48; The largest call open-interest concentration is 105.00; the largest put concentration is 90.00. The most active strike by current volume is 105.00.
Priced range96.58–104.48
Call concentration105.00
Put concentration90.00
Max pain reference100.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 96.58 to 104.48. Max pain at 100.00 sits inside that range, 0.5% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
96.58100.53 ± 3.95104.48
Confirmation level
A close beyond 104.48 or below 96.58 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 41/100
Pressure is 81/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure81 × 42%
+33.9
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation7 × 22%
+1.5
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement11 × 26%
+2.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility30 × 10%
+3.0
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 105.00; the largest put concentration is 90.00. The most active strike by current volume is 105.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
50.00-50.3%
0
0
55.00-45.3%
0
0
60.00-40.3%
0
0
65.00-35.3%
0
0
70.00-30.4%
0
7
80.00-20.4%
0
66
85.00-15.4%
0
338
90.00-10.5%
1
72
95.00-5.5%
76
91
100.00-0.5%
138
159
105.004.4%
564
1
110.009.4%
440
0
115.0014.4%
38
0
120.0019.4%
2
0
125.0024.3%
9
0
130.0029.3%
5
0
135.0034.3%
6
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile+$284,686Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak115.00+$250,034
Negative peak90.00-$317,922
Nearest balance97.94Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
50.00-50.3%
-$14
55.00-45.3%
+$216
60.00-40.3%
+$2,802
65.00-35.3%
-$12
70.00-30.4%
-$530
75.00-25.4%
+$224
80.00-20.4%
+$475
85.00-15.4%
-$66,989
90.00-10.5%
-$317,922
95.00-5.5%
-$167,826
100.00-0.5%
+$117,708
105.004.4%
+$227,240
110.009.4%
+$213,080
115.0014.4%
+$250,034
120.0019.4%
+$23,068
125.0024.3%
+$3,009
130.0029.3%
+$63
135.0034.3%
+$55
140.0039.3%
+$8
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.20
21 Aug
18d
0.25
18 Sep
46d
0.23
20 Nov
109d
0.24
18 Dec
137d
0.24
19 Mar
228d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 3 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 190 / 190
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Call activity against legacy put OI
Call activity is dominant while put open interest remains large but current put volume is not leading.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Call activity against legacy put OI matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $13,212 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · atm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+81
1W price-2.7%
Call premium89%
Put premium11%
Notional split
C 89% / P 11%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
11/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 0 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Do not infer a hedge unwind without next-session open-interest changes and opening/closing data.
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $3,325 estimated gross traded notional, and 25% of visible notional.
$3,325
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 40 contracts traded, $2,580 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$2,580
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 8 contracts traded, $1,800 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$1,800
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $1,530 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$1,530
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 33 contracts traded, $1,412 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$1,412
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
4 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 4 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close100.53
1W-2.7%
RS-2.4
Fair value+10.8%
Options pressure81
Speculation7
Volatility30
Trend fit11
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:13
Bullish
Pressure 48
Move 6.2%
30 Jul 07:54
Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 4.8%
31 Jul 13:32
Bearish
Pressure -46
Move 5.9%
31 Jul 14:23
Mixed
Pressure -7
Move 5.2%
31 Jul 21:46
Mixed
Pressure -9
Move 5.5%
2 Aug 15:08
Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 4.6%
3 Aug 21:31
Mixed
Pressure -5
Move 3.9%
4 Aug 01:35
Bullish
Pressure 81
Move 3.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 7
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 66
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.20
Put-call0.08
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.25
Put-call0.11
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.23
Put-call0.29
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.24
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts40
Avg IV0.24
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.07
Put IV0.48
Skew0.41
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.26
Skew0.06
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.25
Skew0.03
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.26
Skew0.06
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.26
Skew0.06
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractACGL260821C00105000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike105.00
Volume39
OI564
IV0.07
ContractACGL260918C00115000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike115.00
Volume18
OI47
IV0.23
ContractACGL260918C00110000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike110.00
Volume14
OI88
IV0.20
ContractACGL260821C00100000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike100.00
Volume8
OI138
IV0.17
ContractACGL261218C00100000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike100.00
Volume5
OI16
IV0.22
ContractACGL261120C00120000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike120.00
Volume5
OI6
IV0.22
ContractACGL260918P00095000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike95.00
Volume4
OI463
IV0.26
ContractACGL261218C00115000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike115.00
Volume3
OI339
IV0.20
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.