MATH NASDAQ Week ended 09 Oct 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Metalpha Technology Holding Limited · Financial Services · Capital Markets

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Latest close 1.04 USD
-6.3% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 5.2% above the Trend Line and sits at 10.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -6.3%, after a 18.7% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. The latest news-sentiment score is 50/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 23d.

Setup score 35 out of 100
Latest Close 1.04 USD 9 Oct 2026
1W Return -6.3% latest completed week
4W Return 18.7% short-term follow-through
12W Return 15.6% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 5.8% 3 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.0x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Next-week expectancy is negative at 40.35% based on similar historical setup states.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -6.3% Latest completed week; four-week move 18.7%. Indicator stack 3/84 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Negative 40.35% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. News sentiment 50/100 8 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 23d Next report is scheduled for 05 Nov 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 5.2% above the Trend Line and sits at 10.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -6.3%, after a 18.7% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.0x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul 7 Aug 14 Aug 21 Aug 28 Aug 4 Sep 11 Sep 18 Sep 25 Sep 2 Oct 9 Oct
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.0812-week average 0.03

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure11/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.08Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 18.7% over four weeks, 15.6% over 12 weeks, and -70.1% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-6.3%
4W18.7%
12W15.6%
26W-6.3%
52W-70.1%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year3
Trend breadth5.8%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.26Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change139.4%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-41.74Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change24.4%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 09 Oct 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 88% Model confidence 74%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength53/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 48; rank 1 is best.
Value51/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 50; rank 1 is best.
Quality49/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 52; rank 1 is best.
Momentum51/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 50; rank 1 is best.
Growth51/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 50; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
38.5x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
1.3x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
-
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
164.5%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
-59.2%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
-96.4%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
203.9%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
-58.9%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-16.7%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-92.8%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
306737.7%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
3/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
-
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
-24.2%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
-24.2%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
0.1x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment50/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 8 relevant articles.

1 positive · 7 neutral · 0 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings23dNext report is scheduled for 05 Nov 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-70.9%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility10.7%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher10 of 2616 weeks finished lower.
Best week+22.5%Week of 17 Apr.
Worst week-18.4%Week of 24 Apr.
Latest week-6.3%Week of 9 Oct.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains9
Modest gains1
Flat weeks0
Modest losses3
Sharp losses13
Recent vol10.7%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol12.0%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split18/33Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew11.4% / -8.7%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape25/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 25/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis29/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 11/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.08; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 40.35%

Next-week expectancy is negative with a 40.35% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors50/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 95 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment50/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 8 relevant articles.

Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (NASDAQ: MATH) Share Price, MATH Stock News, MATH Share Price & Updates Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings23d

Next report is scheduled for 05 Nov 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
9 Oct 20261.04 USD-6.3%0.9882 USD1.74 USD1.26-41.74457.6KOff
2 Oct 20261.11 USD13.2%0.9949 USD1.74 USD1.14-39.89331.7KOff
25 Sep 20260.9808 USD-2.9%0.9979 USD1.74 USD1.04-48.44286.6KOff
18 Sep 20261.01 USD15.3%1.01 USD1.75 USD0.83-47.083.4MOff
11 Sep 20260.8762 USD-10.1%1.01 USD1.75 USD0.53-55.20174.0KOff
4 Sep 20260.9746 USD18.6%1.03 USD1.75 USD0.35-52.10158.3KOff
28 Aug 20260.8218 USD4.2%1.04 USD1.76 USD0.18-60.63204.0KOff
21 Aug 20260.7888 USD2.4%1.08 USD1.76 USD0.27-63.04220.1KOff
14 Aug 20260.77 USD-13.8%1.13 USD1.76 USD0.10-65.73201.6KOff
7 Aug 20260.8931 USD-6.0%1.18 USD1.77 USD0.09-60.75113.7KOff
31 Jul 20260.95 USD14.4%1.23 USD1.77 USD0.11-57.16282.5KOff
24 Jul 20260.8301 USD-7.8%1.27 USD1.77 USD-0.01-63.33117.7KOff
17 Jul 20260.90 USD-9.2%1.33 USD1.78 USD0.20-61.92115.6KOff
10 Jul 20260.991 USD7.8%1.38 USD1.78 USD0.26-60.84176.1KOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.

Evidence context