- The trend backdrop is active with a 1-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
BGA
ASX
Week ended 28 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Bega Cheese Limited · Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Latest close
6.11 AUD
-4.7%
latest week
Weekly setup
Constructive, but selective
The weekly trend is active. Price is 4.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 63.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -4.7%, after a 1.5% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 53/100.
Setup score
56
out of 100
Latest Close
6.11 AUD
28 Aug 2026
1W Return
-4.7%
latest completed week
4W Return
1.5%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
12.1%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
51.9%
27 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.5x
vs 13-week average
- 2 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Latest weekly return ranks in the weaker part of its sector group.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-4.7%
Latest completed week; four-week move 1.5%.
Indicator stack
32/79
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
News sentiment
53/100
15 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 4.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 63.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -4.7%, after a 1.5% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.5x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
14 Aug
21 Aug
28 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.6312-week average 0.42
12-week confirmation
Trend active1/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure7/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.63Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 1.5% over four weeks, 12.1% over 12 weeks, and 6.0% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 1 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak1 weeks
Active weeks in one year27
Trend breadth51.9%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.08Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change124.5%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership2.49Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-20.4%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.
Factor week 23 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2026
Field coverage 88%
Model confidence 88%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength22/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 79; rank 1 is best.
Value10/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 91; rank 1 is best.
Quality10/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 91; rank 1 is best.
Momentum90/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 11; rank 1 is best.
Growth84/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 17; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 36.2x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 0.5x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.0x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 0.8% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 21.0% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 0.4% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 0.5% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 0.8% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 6.6% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -72.4% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 7/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 2.0% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 2.0% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 1.7x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment53/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 15 relevant articles.
6 positive · 8 neutral · 1 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-10.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility2.8%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
6 Mar
3 Apr
1 May
29 May
26 Jun
24 Jul
28 Aug
Weeks higher15 of 2611 weeks finished lower.
Best week+7.1%Week of 21 Aug.
Worst week-8.2%Week of 8 May.
Latest week-4.7%Week of 28 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains2
Modest gains13
Flat weeks0
Modest losses7
Sharp losses4
Recent vol2.8%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.7%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split27/25Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.7% / -2.5%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorAU Consumer Defensive
4-week rank26 / 60
Group average-0.4%
Trend breadth26.7%
Trend26.7%active weekly trend signals
MD70.0%positive activity pressure
RS21.7%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryAU Packaged Foods
4-week rank13 / 25
Group average2.0%
Trend breadth24.0%
Trend24.0%active weekly trend signals
MD64.0%positive activity pressure
RS20.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape53/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 53/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis49/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 1/12, activity pressure 7/12, relative leadership 12/12.
Activity pressure 0.63; 2 reversal markers Factors30/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 53; Small Cap Core rank 80 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment53/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 15 relevant articles.
Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA) Strengthens Turnaround Story with FY26 Earnings Growth Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2026 | 6.11 AUD | -4.7% | 5.87 AUD | 4.88 AUD | 1.08 | 2.49 | 3.2M | On |
| 21 Aug 2026 | 6.41 AUD | 7.1% | 5.87 AUD | 4.86 AUD | 1.07 | 8.09 | 4.7M | Off |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 5.99 AUD | -0.8% | 5.86 AUD | 4.84 AUD | 0.79 | 0.63 | 4.3M | Off |
| 7 Aug 2026 | 6.04 AUD | 0.3% | 5.85 AUD | 4.82 AUD | 0.62 | 0.07 | 1.9M | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 6.02 AUD | 1.0% | 5.85 AUD | 4.80 AUD | 0.48 | 3.13 | 4.6M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 5.96 AUD | -2.3% | 5.85 AUD | 4.78 AUD | 0.27 | 4.77 | 613.8K | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 6.10 AUD | 1.8% | 5.85 AUD | 4.76 AUD | 0.12 | 7.25 | 995.4K | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 5.99 AUD | 0.8% | 5.85 AUD | 4.74 AUD | -0.12 | 5.56 | 591.5K | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 5.94 AUD | 2.6% | 5.85 AUD | 4.72 AUD | -0.39 | 4.52 | 551.7K | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 5.79 AUD | 1.8% | 5.85 AUD | 4.70 AUD | -0.71 | 2.96 | 595.8K | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 5.69 AUD | 0.5% | 5.85 AUD | 4.68 AUD | -0.99 | 0.55 | 1.4M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 5.66 AUD | 3.9% | 5.85 AUD | 4.67 AUD | -1.18 | 0.33 | 512.9K | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 5.45 AUD | -1.3% | 5.86 AUD | 4.65 AUD | -1.16 | -1.37 | 3.2M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 5.52 AUD | 2.4% | 5.85 AUD | 4.64 AUD | -1.10 | -1.37 | 918.1K | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.