ALPHA ARCHITECT U.S. QUANTITATIVE MOMENTUM ETF
The Core Trend remains in force, but the Fast Trend now points the other way. That is an early loss of persistence, not yet a regime change.
Price above the boundary supports a positive Core Trend; price below it supports a negative Core Trend. Regime shading records what was known at each completed observation.
| Week | Close | Boundary | Direction | Core momentum | Agreement | Volatility | From displayed peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | 72.90 | 64.18 | Positive | +13.6% | 75.0% | 18.9% | -9.4% |
| 2026-09-18 | 72.58 | 65.00 | Positive | +11.7% | 75.0% | 18.9% | -9.8% |
| 2026-09-11 | 73.40 | 64.03 | Positive | +14.6% | 75.0% | 18.9% | -8.7% |
| 2026-09-04 | 73.43 | 62.94 | Positive | +16.7% | 75.0% | 19.1% | -8.7% |
| 2026-08-28 | 73.08 | 62.61 | Positive | +16.7% | 50.0% | 21.9% | -9.1% |
| 2026-08-21 | 75.01 | 62.09 | Positive | +20.8% | 75.0% | 21.6% | -6.7% |
| 2026-08-14 | 78.06 | 62.06 | Positive | +25.8% | 100.0% | 21.0% | -2.9% |
| 2026-08-07 | 77.10 | 62.33 | Positive | +23.7% | 75.0% | 21.0% | -4.1% |
| 2026-07-31 | 73.74 | 62.56 | Positive | +17.9% | 75.0% | 20.5% | -8.3% |
| 2026-07-24 | 74.89 | 63.54 | Positive | +17.9% | 75.0% | 21.1% | -6.9% |
| 2026-07-17 | 74.13 | 63.79 | Positive | +16.2% | 75.0% | 21.0% | -7.8% |
| 2026-07-10 | 76.02 | 62.09 | Positive | +22.4% | 100.0% | 21.1% | -5.5% |
| 2026-07-03 | 75.86 | 63.81 | Positive | +18.9% | 100.0% | 21.3% | -5.7% |
| 2026-06-26 | 76.95 | 64.11 | Positive | +20.0% | 100.0% | 21.2% | -4.3% |
| 2026-06-19 | 78.82 | 62.20 | Positive | +26.7% | 100.0% | 20.8% | -2.0% |
| 2026-06-12 | 79.11 | 62.21 | Positive | +27.2% | 100.0% | 20.8% | -1.6% |
| 2026-06-05 | 76.85 | 63.26 | Positive | +21.5% | 100.0% | 20.5% | -4.5% |
| 2026-05-29 | 80.43 | 61.33 | Positive | +31.1% | 100.0% | 19.1% | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-22 | 77.50 | 60.51 | Positive | +28.1% | 100.0% | 20.0% | -1.5% |
| 2026-05-15 | 77.34 | 61.71 | Positive | +25.3% | 100.0% | 20.7% | -1.7% |
| 2026-05-08 | 78.67 | 59.42 | Positive | +32.4% | 100.0% | 21.1% | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-01 | 76.52 | 59.70 | Positive | +28.2% | 100.0% | 21.4% | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-24 | 76.46 | 58.29 | Positive | +31.2% | 100.0% | 21.5% | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-17 | 76.31 | 55.40 | Positive | +37.8% | 100.0% | 21.7% | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-10 | 73.81 | 55.11 | Positive | +33.9% | 100.0% | 21.5% | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-03 | 69.57 | 52.06 | Positive | +33.6% | 100.0% | 20.4% | -4.9% |
| 2026-03-27 | 66.64 | 57.72 | Positive | +15.5% | 75.0% | 19.6% | -8.9% |
| 2026-03-20 | 66.20 | 58.74 | Positive | +12.7% | 100.0% | 19.6% | -9.5% |
| 2026-03-13 | 66.97 | 57.19 | Positive | +17.1% | 100.0% | 19.7% | -8.5% |
| 2026-03-06 | 67.88 | 57.44 | Positive | +18.2% | 100.0% | 19.6% | -7.2% |
| 2026-02-27 | 73.17 | 62.05 | Positive | +17.9% | 100.0% | 16.1% | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-20 | 72.60 | 62.79 | Positive | +15.6% | 100.0% | 16.1% | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-13 | 70.67 | 66.44 | Positive | +6.4% | 100.0% | 15.8% | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-06 | 69.79 | 67.90 | Positive | +2.8% | 100.0% | 15.8% | -1.0% |
| 2026-01-30 | 67.88 | 67.57 | Positive | +0.5% | 100.0% | 15.5% | -3.7% |
| 2026-01-23 | 70.32 | 68.29 | Positive | +3.0% | 100.0% | 14.8% | -0.2% |
| 2026-01-16 | 70.49 | 67.04 | Positive | +5.1% | 100.0% | 14.8% | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-09 | 68.10 | 64.46 | Positive | +5.7% | 100.0% | 14.5% | -3.0% |
| 2026-01-02 | 66.49 | 65.32 | Positive | +1.8% | 100.0% | 14.8% | -5.3% |
| 2025-12-26 | 66.72 | 64.39 | Positive | +3.6% | 100.0% | 14.8% | -4.9% |
| 2025-12-19 | 65.59 | 64.41 | Positive | +1.8% | 100.0% | 15.2% | -6.6% |
| 2025-12-12 | 65.73 | 66.15 | Negative | -0.6% | 25.0% | 15.2% | -6.3% |
| 2025-12-05 | 65.11 | 69.15 | Negative | -5.8% | 25.0% | 15.4% | -7.2% |
| 2025-11-28 | 65.11 | 70.19 | Negative | -7.2% | 25.0% | 15.9% | -7.2% |
| 2025-11-21 | 61.37 | 69.62 | Negative | -11.9% | 75.0% | 13.8% | -12.6% |
| 2025-11-14 | 63.14 | 66.40 | Negative | -4.9% | 50.0% | 13.4% | -10.0% |
| 2025-11-07 | 65.21 | 68.87 | Negative | -5.3% | 50.0% | 13.5% | -7.1% |
| 2025-10-31 | 66.97 | 63.05 | Positive | +6.2% | 75.0% | 12.8% | -4.6% |
| 2025-10-24 | 65.54 | 62.71 | Positive | +4.5% | 75.0% | 12.9% | -6.6% |
| 2025-10-17 | 63.77 | 64.51 | Negative | -1.2% | 75.0% | 14.1% | -9.1% |
| 2025-10-10 | 62.59 | 64.27 | Negative | -2.6% | 50.0% | 14.0% | -10.8% |
| 2025-10-03 | 63.87 | 63.69 | Positive | +0.3% | 75.0% | 15.2% | -9.0% |
| 2025-09-26 | 64.18 | 62.71 | Positive | +2.4% | 75.0% | 21.6% | -8.6% |
| 2025-09-19 | 65.00 | 62.65 | Positive | +3.8% | 100.0% | 21.7% | -7.4% |
| 2025-09-12 | 64.03 | 59.52 | Positive | +7.6% | 75.0% | 21.9% | -8.8% |
| 2025-09-05 | 62.94 | 57.04 | Positive | +10.3% | 50.0% | 21.8% | -10.3% |
| 2025-08-29 | 62.61 | 60.67 | Positive | +3.2% | 75.0% | 24.5% | -10.8% |
| 2025-08-22 | 62.09 | 60.44 | Positive | +2.7% | 50.0% | 24.6% | -11.5% |
| 2025-08-15 | 62.06 | 59.20 | Positive | +4.8% | 50.0% | 25.8% | -11.6% |
| 2025-08-08 | 62.33 | 57.10 | Positive | +9.2% | 50.0% | 25.9% | -11.2% |
| 2025-08-01 | 62.56 | 55.06 | Positive | +13.6% | 50.0% | 25.9% | -10.9% |
| 2025-07-25 | 63.54 | 57.46 | Positive | +10.6% | 75.0% | 25.9% | -9.5% |
| 2025-07-18 | 63.79 | 57.35 | Positive | +11.2% | 50.0% | 26.0% | -9.1% |
| 2025-07-11 | 62.09 | 58.75 | Positive | +5.7% | 50.0% | 26.4% | -11.5% |
| 2025-07-04 | 63.81 | 57.52 | Positive | +10.9% | 75.0% | 26.2% | -9.1% |
| 2025-06-27 | 64.11 | 57.17 | Positive | +12.1% | 75.0% | 26.3% | -8.7% |
| 2025-06-20 | 62.20 | 57.00 | Positive | +9.1% | 50.0% | 25.9% | -11.4% |
| 2025-06-13 | 62.21 | 56.78 | Positive | +9.6% | 75.0% | 26.1% | -11.4% |
| 2025-06-06 | 63.26 | 55.98 | Positive | +13.0% | 75.0% | 26.7% | -9.9% |
| 2025-05-30 | 61.33 | 58.00 | Positive | +5.7% | 50.0% | 26.3% | -12.6% |
| 2025-05-23 | 60.51 | 59.46 | Positive | +1.8% | 50.0% | 26.2% | -13.8% |
| 2025-05-16 | 61.71 | 58.19 | Positive | +6.1% | 50.0% | 27.1% | -12.1% |
| 2025-05-09 | 59.42 | 58.01 | Positive | +2.4% | 50.0% | 26.8% | -15.3% |
| 2025-05-02 | 59.70 | 56.30 | Positive | +6.0% | 50.0% | 29.8% | -14.9% |
| 2025-04-25 | 58.29 | 55.84 | Positive | +4.4% | 50.0% | 29.6% | -16.9% |
| 2025-04-18 | 55.40 | 53.17 | Positive | +4.2% | 25.0% | 28.8% | -21.1% |
| 2025-04-11 | 55.11 | 55.62 | Negative | -0.9% | 100.0% | 28.8% | -21.5% |
| 2025-04-04 | 52.06 | 57.64 | Negative | -9.7% | 100.0% | 27.4% | -25.8% |
| 2025-03-28 | 57.72 | 58.00 | Negative | -0.5% | 75.0% | 23.9% | -17.8% |
| 2025-03-21 | 58.74 | 58.17 | Positive | +1.0% | 50.0% | 23.8% | -16.3% |
| 2025-03-14 | 57.19 | 55.61 | Positive | +2.8% | 50.0% | 24.6% | -18.5% |
| 2025-03-07 | 57.44 | 56.31 | Positive | +2.0% | 75.0% | 25.3% | -18.2% |
| 2025-02-28 | 62.05 | 56.88 | Positive | +9.1% | 75.0% | 24.5% | -11.6% |
| 2025-02-21 | 62.79 | 54.13 | Positive | +16.0% | 75.0% | 24.4% | -10.5% |
| 2025-02-14 | 66.44 | 53.77 | Positive | +23.6% | 100.0% | 23.1% | -5.3% |
| 2025-02-07 | 67.90 | 53.94 | Positive | +25.9% | 75.0% | 23.1% | -3.3% |
| 2025-01-31 | 67.57 | 52.58 | Positive | +28.5% | 100.0% | 23.5% | -3.7% |
| 2025-01-24 | 68.29 | 50.45 | Positive | +35.3% | 100.0% | 24.4% | -2.7% |
| 2025-01-17 | 67.04 | 50.56 | Positive | +32.6% | 100.0% | 24.4% | -4.5% |
| 2025-01-10 | 64.46 | 49.77 | Positive | +29.5% | 100.0% | 24.2% | -8.2% |
| 2025-01-03 | 65.32 | 47.76 | Positive | +36.8% | 100.0% | 24.2% | -6.9% |
| 2024-12-27 | 64.39 | 48.92 | Positive | +31.6% | 100.0% | 24.2% | -8.3% |
| 2024-12-20 | 64.41 | 49.01 | Positive | +31.4% | 100.0% | 24.2% | -8.2% |
| 2024-12-13 | 66.15 | 48.29 | Positive | +37.0% | 100.0% | 23.7% | -5.7% |
| 2024-12-06 | 69.15 | 46.59 | Positive | +48.4% | 100.0% | 22.6% | -1.5% |
| 2024-11-29 | 70.19 | 46.15 | Positive | +52.1% | 100.0% | 23.2% | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-22 | 69.62 | 45.54 | Positive | +52.9% | 100.0% | 23.6% | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-15 | 66.40 | 45.15 | Positive | +47.1% | 100.0% | 23.0% | -3.6% |
| 2024-11-08 | 68.87 | 43.52 | Positive | +58.3% | 100.0% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-01 | 63.05 | 42.81 | Positive | +47.3% | 100.0% | 19.2% | -2.3% |
| 2024-10-25 | 62.71 | 39.33 | Positive | +59.4% | 100.0% | 19.2% | -2.8% |
| 2024-10-18 | 64.51 | 39.60 | Positive | +62.9% | 100.0% | 19.5% | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-11 | 64.27 | 40.67 | Positive | +58.0% | 100.0% | 20.8% | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-04 | 63.69 | 41.40 | Positive | +53.8% | 100.0% | 21.6% | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-27 | 62.71 | 41.94 | Positive | +49.5% | 100.0% | 21.6% | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-20 | 62.65 | 41.10 | Positive | +52.4% | 100.0% | 21.6% | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-13 | 59.52 | 42.76 | Positive | +39.2% | 100.0% | 21.3% | -1.9% |
| 2024-09-06 | 57.04 | 43.80 | Positive | +30.2% | 100.0% | 20.6% | -6.0% |
| 2024-08-30 | 60.67 | 44.77 | Positive | +35.5% | 100.0% | 18.7% | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-23 | 60.44 | 42.79 | Positive | +41.2% | 100.0% | 19.8% | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-16 | 59.20 | 43.01 | Positive | +37.6% | 100.0% | 19.6% | -0.4% |
| 2024-08-09 | 57.10 | 44.35 | Positive | +28.7% | 75.0% | 19.1% | -4.0% |
| 2024-08-02 | 55.06 | 44.81 | Positive | +22.9% | 75.0% | 18.7% | -7.4% |
| 2024-07-26 | 57.46 | 45.54 | Positive | +26.2% | 100.0% | 18.4% | -3.4% |
| 2024-07-19 | 57.35 | 45.58 | Positive | +25.8% | 100.0% | 18.4% | -3.5% |
| 2024-07-12 | 58.75 | 45.97 | Positive | +27.8% | 100.0% | 18.0% | -1.2% |
| 2024-07-05 | 57.52 | 44.31 | Positive | +29.8% | 75.0% | 18.5% | -3.3% |
| 2024-06-28 | 57.17 | 45.19 | Positive | +26.5% | 75.0% | 19.0% | -3.9% |
| 2024-06-21 | 57.00 | 43.70 | Positive | +30.4% | 75.0% | 19.0% | -4.1% |
| 2024-06-14 | 56.78 | 44.20 | Positive | +28.5% | 100.0% | 19.1% | -4.5% |
| 2024-06-07 | 55.98 | 44.23 | Positive | +26.6% | 75.0% | 19.5% | -5.9% |
| 2024-05-31 | 58.00 | 43.51 | Positive | +33.3% | 100.0% | 18.5% | -2.5% |
| 2024-05-24 | 59.46 | 42.99 | Positive | +38.3% | 100.0% | 17.8% | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-17 | 58.19 | 42.84 | Positive | +35.8% | 100.0% | 17.8% | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-10 | 58.01 | 42.05 | Positive | +37.9% | 100.0% | 18.1% | -0.3% |
| 2024-05-03 | 56.30 | 41.68 | Positive | +35.1% | 100.0% | 17.9% | -3.2% |
| 2024-04-26 | 55.84 | 42.52 | Positive | +31.3% | 100.0% | 20.7% | -4.0% |
| 2024-04-19 | 53.17 | 43.52 | Positive | +22.2% | 100.0% | 20.2% | -8.6% |
| 2024-04-12 | 55.62 | 44.10 | Positive | +26.1% | 100.0% | 19.3% | -4.4% |
| 2024-04-05 | 57.64 | 43.12 | Positive | +33.7% | 100.0% | 18.6% | -0.9% |
| 2024-03-29 | 58.00 | 43.84 | Positive | +32.3% | 100.0% | 18.7% | -0.3% |
| 2024-03-22 | 58.17 | 41.77 | Positive | +39.3% | 100.0% | 18.6% | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-15 | 55.61 | 40.97 | Positive | +35.7% | 100.0% | 19.4% | -2.2% |
| 2024-03-08 | 56.31 | 42.99 | Positive | +31.0% | 100.0% | 19.7% | -1.0% |
| 2024-03-01 | 56.88 | 46.16 | Positive | +23.2% | 100.0% | 20.1% | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-23 | 54.13 | 44.61 | Positive | +21.4% | 100.0% | 19.9% | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-16 | 53.77 | 44.67 | Positive | +20.4% | 100.0% | 20.0% | -0.3% |
| 2024-02-09 | 53.94 | 45.47 | Positive | +18.6% | 100.0% | 20.7% | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-02 | 52.58 | 44.26 | Positive | +18.8% | 100.0% | 20.6% | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-26 | 50.45 | 45.44 | Positive | +11.0% | 100.0% | 20.2% | -0.2% |
| 2024-01-19 | 50.56 | 45.09 | Positive | +12.1% | 100.0% | 20.2% | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-12 | 49.77 | 45.10 | Positive | +10.3% | 100.0% | 20.2% | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-05 | 47.76 | 44.29 | Positive | +7.8% | 100.0% | 20.0% | -2.6% |
| 2023-12-29 | 48.92 | 44.67 | Positive | +9.5% | 100.0% | 19.9% | -0.2% |
| 2023-12-22 | 49.01 | 45.57 | Positive | +7.6% | 100.0% | 20.4% | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-15 | 48.29 | 44.73 | Positive | +8.0% | 100.0% | 20.4% | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-08 | 46.59 | 44.48 | Positive | +4.7% | 100.0% | 19.9% | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-01 | 46.15 | 47.83 | Negative | -3.5% | 50.0% | 19.9% | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-24 | 45.54 | 48.54 | Negative | -6.2% | 25.0% | 19.9% | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-17 | 45.15 | 47.67 | Negative | -5.3% | 25.0% | 19.9% | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-10 | 43.52 | 48.05 | Negative | -9.4% | 75.0% | 19.4% | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-03 | 42.81 | 48.67 | Negative | -12.0% | 75.0% | 19.3% | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-27 | 39.33 | 48.74 | Negative | -19.3% | 100.0% | 15.3% | -5.0% |
| 2023-10-20 | 39.60 | 46.87 | Negative | -15.5% | 100.0% | 15.6% | -4.4% |
| 2023-10-13 | 40.67 | 44.75 | Negative | -9.1% | 100.0% | 15.3% | -1.8% |
| 2023-10-06 | 41.40 | 45.22 | Negative | -8.4% | 100.0% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
The boundary itself moves with the completed price history. This comparison holds today’s reference fixed.
The percentage fall from the latest close required to reach today’s Direction Boundary.
Margin change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Sensitivity uses the existing comparison with recent weekly variability; it is not a probability.
Bars share a centred scale capped at ±100%; the printed readings retain their full values.
The zero line marks the Direction Boundary. Distance from zero shows the current margin supporting the Core Trend.
Higher readings mean the faster and slower Trend views agree more broadly with the Core Trend; lower readings reveal internal tension.
156 classified observations · 93 with full agreement. This describes the displayed history, not the chance of the next direction.
Each comparison uses only the Trend direction and agreement visible at that completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, and thin samples remain clearly marked.
| Outcome horizon | Matched samples | Median move | Directional follow-through | Core Trend survived | Versus all periods | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near term | 24 | -1.9%range -15.4% to +14.7% | +45.8% | +79.2% | -2.7%median difference | Usable descriptive sample |
| Intermediate | 11 | +0.5%range -12.5% to +15.5% | +54.5% | +54.5% | -1.5%median difference | Usable descriptive sample |
| Longer term | 8 | +6.7%range -8.2% to +23.5% | +62.5% | +87.5% | +3.2%median difference | Usable descriptive sample |
| Full cycle | 4 | +6.6%range -8.3% to +21.5% | +75.0% | +75.0% | +1.9%median difference | Too little matched history |
| Direction | Start | End | Tenure | Move inside regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Positive | 2025-12-19 | 2026-09-25 | Extended | +11.1% |
| Negative | 2025-11-07 | 2025-12-12 | Developing | +0.8% |
| Positive | 2025-10-24 | 2025-10-31 | Brief | +2.2% |
| Negative | 2025-10-10 | 2025-10-17 | Brief | +1.9% |
| Positive | 2025-04-18 | 2025-10-03 | Established | +15.3% |
| Negative | 2025-03-28 | 2025-04-11 | Brief | -4.5% |
| Positive | 2023-12-08 | 2025-03-21 | Extended | +26.1% |
| Negative | 2023-08-11 | 2023-12-01 | Established | +4.1% |
| Positive | 2023-06-16 | 2023-08-04 | Developing | +1.4% |
| Negative | 2023-03-10 | 2023-06-09 | Established | +2.9% |
| Positive | 2023-03-03 | 2023-03-03 | Brief | 0.0% |
| Negative | 2023-02-03 | 2023-02-24 | Brief | +0.8% |
Recent weekly price variability expressed on a comparable annual scale.
Shows whether risk is accelerating or settling relative to the wider backdrop.
A normalized comparison tool, not a position recommendation.
The current margin is not unusually small relative to recent weekly movement.
Price movement recorded since the present Core Trend direction became active.
The largest counter-trend move observed without the Core Trend changing direction.
Rising volatility can make an otherwise persistent direction harder to hold and increases the chance of crossing a boundary abruptly.
Distance below the running closing-price peak within the displayed history. The starting observation sets the first peak.
A persistent Core Trend can contain substantial drawdowns. The peak is calculated from displayed observations; it is not an all-time high.
These are separate Sharemaestro readings from the same latest completed observation. They explain participation, value and relative pressure, but none can overwrite the Core Trend.
The SM persistence framework classifies the established weekly price path as positive, negative or neutral. Only continuous completed market history is admitted.
Faster and slower Trend views show whether directional pressure is broad or divided. They describe the Core Trend but cannot replace it.
Historical comparisons use only the Trend state available at each completed observation, with visible sample counts and overlap controls.
Trend persistence can reverse, whipsaw or cross its Direction Boundary through a gap. Transaction costs, tax, borrow availability and implementation slippage are not modelled.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast or an execution instruction. Past states and outcomes do not establish what will happen next.
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