At a glance
Summary
Restaurant Brands International closed at 80.17 USD for the week ended 4 September, up 2.4% and near the top of its one-year range. The Trend backdrop remains active, Market Dynamics are positive and Relative Strength is constructive, but volume confirmation is moderate and the stock trades 18.7% above Sharemaestro Fair Value.
- QSR rose 2.4% on the week, added 8.5% over four weeks and is up 30.6% across 52 weeks.
- The close is 7.1% above the weekly Trend Line at 74.82 USD and 18.7% above Sharemaestro Fair Value at 67.52 USD.
- Volume was 13.9M shares, broadly in line with the 13-week average of 13.7M and below the 52-week average of 14.8M.
- The stock beat weak context: US Restaurants averaged -2.8% for the week and US Consumer Cyclical averaged -1.3%.
- Risk is mixed, with an active trend and improving activity pressure offset by a negative 44.58% expectancy reading and proximity to the 52-week high.
Company analysis
The move in context
Price action separates from a soft restaurant group
Restaurant Brands International, the owner and franchisor of Tim Hortons, Burger King and Popeyes, finished the latest week at 80.17 USD, up 2.4%. That puts the stock at 92.3% of its 52-week range and only 2.1% below the 81.88 USD high, a strong location at a time when the broader US Restaurants industry fell 2.8% for the week.
The four-week gain of 8.5% also stands out against a Restaurants industry average of -3.8% and a US Consumer Cyclical average of -4.5%. Within the industry, QSR ranked seventh for the week and sixth over four weeks among 51 names, while the sector backdrop remains uneven: only 49.0% of Consumer Cyclical stocks show active weekly trend signals and just 25.0% show positive relative strength.
Trend Signal is active, but this is still a balanced read
The Sharemaestro setup is classified as a Balanced read with a composite score of 63. The weekly Trend backdrop is active and has been active for 41 of the past 52 weeks, giving QSR a trend breadth reading of 78.8%. Price is 7.1% above the Trend Line at 74.82 USD, which keeps the weekly regime constructive.
Market Dynamics are supportive rather than decisive. Activity pressure is positive at 0.48 and Relative Strength is positive at 1.72, both improved over the past month. However, the signal state shows no fresh buy on activity pressure, so the latest advance has confirmation from direction and relative performance, but not from a new trigger.
Volume supports participation, not acceleration
The latest week traded 13.9M shares, equal to 1.0x the 13-week average of 13.7M and 0.9x the 52-week average of 14.8M. That is enough to avoid a thin-volume concern, but it does not show the stronger participation normally associated with a decisive breakout attempt.
Recent trading has also been choppy around the move. QSR gained 5.1% in the week of 14 August and 4.1% in the week of 21 August, then lost 3.2% in the week of 28 August before recovering 2.4% in the latest week. The price is close to a high-water mark, but the volume profile says investors have not yet crowded into the next leg.
Premium valuation raises the test near the high
The main risk is that price strength has already moved well ahead of Sharemaestro Fair Value. At 80.17 USD, QSR trades 18.7% above the Fair Value reading of 67.52 USD, so the stock is being valued at a premium to the model while sitting near the top of its yearly range.
Weekly risk measures are not excessive: 13-week volatility is 2.5% versus a 52-week base of 2.9%, and the one-year split is 29 positive weeks against 23 negative weeks. Still, the next-week expectancy read is negative at 44.58%, and two recent reversal markers in the smart-money tape argue for watching whether activity pressure continues to improve or starts to fade.
Peer comparison
How the wider group is behaving
Breadth shows how much of the sector or industry is participating. A company move is more convincing when its peers are improving too.
US Consumer Cyclical
100 tracked companiesAbove Trend Line49.0%
Positive Relative Strength25.0%
US Restaurants
51 tracked companiesAbove Trend Line49.0%
Positive Relative Strength25.5%
Balanced view
What supports the case, and what could weaken it
What is working
- The trend backdrop is active with a 41-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
- Activity pressure is constructive, supporting the smart-money activity read.
What needs caution
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 44.58% based on similar historical setup states.
- 2 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
Research note
This article is for educational market research only and is not financial, investment, trading, tax, or legal advice. Sharemaestro does not make buy, sell, or hold recommendations.
Source and attribution
Source: Sharemaestro. Canonical article: https://sharemaestro.com/news/qsr-restaurant-brands-weekly-restaurant-group-average-volume/.
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