Counter-trend rallies may occur, but primary structure and persistence do not yet support adding risk.
44
technical evidence
out of 100
out of 100
Week Ending: 28 August 2026
United States US Sector
Consumer Cyclical
For the week ending 28 August 2026, Consumer Cyclical declined 1.75% with 135 advancing, 355 declining, and 4 unchanged constituents. The index is equal weighted and built from NASDAQ, NYSE equities.
Current architecture
Deceleration
The positive Trend gate remains, but fan energy or fast-line momentum is cooling.
44
technical evidence
Index1156.12
1 week-1.75%
Breadth27%
Members494
Country
🇺🇸 United States · US
Universe
NASDAQ, NYSE
Price basis
Adjusted weekly close
Trend architecture
Index, activity fan and structural anchors
Rolling 156-week evidence. Trend Signal points mark weeks when price, trend and the activity fan confirmed together.
Index Value
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity Lines
Constructive architecture
Transitional architecture
Defensive architecture
Current architecture
Deceleration
3 completed weeks in this state
Trend acceptance
-0.2%
Index versus Trend Line
Persistence
100%
Negative across every horizon
Participation
27%
135 advancing, 355 declining
Investor positioning lens
Is the evidence ready for capital?
A rules-based technical classification using trend, breadth, persistence, relative strength and path quality.
Evidence balance
Reduce
Five-pillar map
Trend
55
Breadth
26
Persistence
49
Relative
23
Risk quality
83
What supports the view
- No major confirming factor has secured control.
What restrains conviction
- Index trend architecture has not delivered a durable upward expansion.
- Breadth remains too narrow or inconsistent for a high-conviction position.
- Constituent persistence remains divided or predominantly negative.
- The group is not yet delivering dependable relative outperformance.
- Activity Line energy is decelerating despite the positive Trend gate.
- Stage 4 declining constituents exceed Stage 2 advancing constituents by 10 percentage points.
This is a weekly research classification, not personal investment advice. Sentiment is reported as an independent confirmation layer and does not alter the technical score.
Trend state and durability
Architecture, persistence and constituent regimes
The index path is tested against the underlying security-level trend evidence.
The positive Trend gate remains, but fan energy or fast-line momentum is cooling.
State age3 weeks
Trend gateUp
Fan width1.01%
Fast versus slow change-0.26 pts
Above 33%
Below 33%
Six completed weeks of price acceptance relative to the full Activity Line fan.
Index persistence
100% agreement
Negative across every horizon
The 13, 26, 39 and 52-week trends all point downward, confirming persistent contraction.
13-week
-1.3%
26-week
-1.9%
39-week
-2.6%
52-week
-8.6%
Constituent trend persistence
97% coverage
Is the index move broadly durable?
43%positive
Coherent positive26%
Coherent negative23%
Average horizon agreement80%
Positive horizon share50%
Weakening positives48
Repairing negatives97
477 constituents measured as of 21 Aug 2026. Median trend age is 21 weeks.
Custom stage map
95% coverage
Where constituents sit in the cycle
41%Stage 4
Stage 1 · Basing19%87 securities
Stage 2 · Advancing32%147 securities
Stage 3 · Distribution9%40 securities
Stage 4 · Declining41%193 securities
Re-acceleration watch6
Transition watch59
Relative strength leaders25%
Fair Value repairs59
Measured as of 21 Aug 2026. Stages summarize price, Activity Line architecture, Fair Value position and relative evidence.
Architecture breadth
76/100 mean confidence
How market energy is distributed
Architecture breadth shows the distribution of expanding, rotating, balancing and contracting securities. It is diagnostic context and is not added as a second vote in the positioning score.
Capital rotation
Performance relative to US Market Structure
Relative index
13-week relative trend
Starting level
A rising relative line means this group is compounding faster than US Market Structure. A falling line means capital has done better in the parent benchmark.
Relative index83.8
13-week trend85.6
4-week trend change0.52%
Weekly peer rank10 of 12
1 week
-0.7 pts
relative
4 weeks
-3.6 pts
relative
13 weeks
-0.2 pts
relative
26 weeks
-4.7 pts
relative
52 weeks
-11.9 pts
relative
Market internals
Participation, dispersion and path risk
Equal-weight index evidence with constituent-level breadth and dispersion.
Breadth
Narrow
Participation quality
27%
advanced
- Advancing
- 135
- Declining
- 355
- Unchanged
- 4
Risk and persistence
52-week lens
Path quality
Annualised weekly volatility18.9%
Drawdown from 52-week high-9.8%
Positive weeks, last 1338%
Current directional run3 weeks
Turnover versus 13-week norm88%
Breadth impulse-21.4 pts
Cross-section
494 measured
Return distribution
Q1 -4.6%
Median -1.9%
Q3 0.3%
Average winner5.0%
Average loser-4.1%
Dispersion7.2 pts
Top-five upside share31%
Top-five capital share54%
Capital data coverage100%
Dispersion describes how far constituent outcomes are spreading apart. Capital concentration is contextual only; the index itself is equal weighted.
Momentum cycle
30-week persistence
Positive readings show expansion. Negative readings show contraction.
Breadth cycle
Net participation
Advancers less decliners as a percentage of measured constituents.
Industry map
Where sector leadership is forming
Performance, breadth and trend acceptance across every qualified industry.
2/23
positive
Above Trend Line13/2357% of industries
Constructive breadth1/23At least half advancing
Median industry-1.28%1.29 pts dispersion
#1
Transition
Personal Services
0.66%
Participation50%
vs Trend4.5%
vs Fair Value-18.4%
Members10
#2
Narrowing
Apparel Manufacturing
0.15%
Participation26%
vs Trend1.7%
vs Fair Value3.1%
Members23
#3
Contracting
Gambling
-0.19%
Participation27%
vs Trend-6.8%
vs Fair Value-20.3%
Members11
#4
Narrowing
Lodging
-0.22%
Participation36%
vs Trend1.8%
vs Fair Value23.0%
Members11
#5
Narrowing
Footwear & Accessories
-0.43%
Participation43%
vs Trend2.3%
vs Fair Value8.6%
Members14
#6
Narrowing
Travel Services
-0.47%
Participation35%
vs Trend3.0%
vs Fair Value15.5%
Members17
#7
Narrowing
Apparel Retail
-0.50%
Participation38%
vs Trend1.6%
vs Fair Value-0.5%
Members29
#8
Narrowing
Residential Construction
-0.63%
Participation16%
vs Trend3.4%
vs Fair Value-2.3%
Members19
#9
Contracting
Auto Manufacturers
-0.98%
Participation32%
vs Trend-9.1%
vs Fair Value-37.3%
Members25
#10
Narrowing
Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
-1.11%
Participation40%
vs Trend3.0%
vs Fair Value-1.6%
Members30
#11
Contracting
Auto & Truck Dealerships
-1.16%
Participation27%
vs Trend-5.7%
vs Fair Value-11.8%
Members22
#12
Weakening
Internet Retail
-1.28%
Participation45%
vs Trend-0.4%
vs Fair Value9.5%
Members31
#13
Narrowing
Leisure
-1.46%
Participation38%
vs Trend0.4%
vs Fair Value3.1%
Members29
#14
Narrowing
Department Stores
-2.59%
Participation0%
vs Trend0.5%
vs Fair Value8.5%
Members4
#15
Narrowing
Textile Manufacturing
-2.72%
Participation25%
vs Trend12.0%
vs Fair Value-6.3%
Members4
#16
Contracting
Auto Parts
-2.78%
Participation22%
vs Trend-6.0%
vs Fair Value-3.7%
Members55
#17
Narrowing
Restaurants
-2.90%
Participation20%
vs Trend2.5%
vs Fair Value-5.8%
Members51
#18
Narrowing
Packaging & Containers
-2.90%
Participation18%
vs Trend8.8%
vs Fair Value4.6%
Members22
#19
Contracting
Recreational Vehicles
-2.93%
Participation18%
vs Trend-2.2%
vs Fair Value-6.6%
Members11
#20
Weakening
Luxury Goods
-3.13%
Participation11%
vs Trend-9.6%
vs Fair Value3.0%
Members9
#21
Contracting
Specialty Retail
-3.15%
Participation19%
vs Trend-1.3%
vs Fair Value-14.9%
Members43
#22
Contracting
Home Improvement Retail
-3.40%
Participation17%
vs Trend-1.3%
vs Fair Value-10.2%
Members6
#23
Contracting
Resorts & Casinos
-3.55%
Participation0%
vs Trend-2.7%
vs Fair Value-3.8%
Members17
News and narrative
Does company news confirm the market tape?
55out of 100
More positive than negative
Positive company scores outnumber negative ones, but the overall score remains close to 50.
Evidence quality
55/100 confidence
Coverage before conviction
Qualified companies14930% of measured constituents
Articles12818100% direct company evidence
Publishers2945Independent sources represented
Latest evidence29 AugFreshness is weighted in the score
Constructive 42%Balanced 47%Cautious 11%
Price confirms news21
Price disagrees61
Negative news absorbed6
Positive but stretched32
Constructive edge
Strongest qualified tone
ANF78/100 confidence · 102 direct
73
Why Abercrombie & Fitch Stock Skyrocketed This Week
ULTA88/100 confidence · 175 direct 71Ulta Beauty stock slips after Q2 2026 earnings beat and guidance raise
AS64/100 confidence · 74 direct 70Why Amer Sports (AS) Keeps Beating Its Own Expectations
ROST81/100 confidence · 161 direct 69Ross Stores customers will soon feel a notable change in stores
BBY75/100 confidence · 112 direct 68Best Buy (BBY) Raised Comparable-Sales Guidance but Product Margins Fell. Can Ads and Marke…
Narrative risk
Weakest qualified tone
MVST71/100 confidence · 77 direct
32
MVST Stock Slides Toward Biggest Drop In 3 Years On Q1 Shocker: CEO Calls Weak Quarter ‘Tem…
BBW73/100 confidence · 51 direct 32Build A Bear Workshop (BBW) Stock Gains Despite Margin Compression And Outlook Cut
PLNT73/100 confidence · 103 direct 32How Investors May Respond To Planet Fitness (PLNT) Lawsuits And Paused Black Card Price Str…
DKS80/100 confidence · 128 direct 32DICK’S Sporting Goods (DKS): Foot Locker is Hurting, But the Core Business Holds Up
CRMT39/100 confidence · 18 direct 36Lawsuit investigation launched over America's Car-Mart's alleged misleading financial info …
Only fresh, quality-controlled company evidence is included. Industry and sector context is down-weighted and cannot create a directional group conclusion on its own.
Leadership tape
Leaders, laggards and contribution shape
Latest completed week, ranked on uncapped constituent returns.
Constituent ledger
Sector constituents
Top 100 of 494 shown, ranked by latest weekly return.
Rank
Ticker
Company
Exchange
Market cap
Close
Index contribution
Return
73
ATAT
Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares
NASDAQ
4.80B
35.50
0.00 pts
2.16%
The index uses capped equal-weight weekly constituent returns. The ledger shows uncapped security returns so outliers remain visible for research.