Counter-trend rallies may occur, but primary structure and persistence do not yet support adding risk.
42
technical evidence
out of 100
out of 100
Consumer Cyclical
For the week ending 09 October 2026, Consumer Cyclical declined 0.60% with 232 advancing, 256 declining, and 2 unchanged constituents.
- Index level
- 1,066.61 Index points · base 1,000
- Weekly return
- -0.60%
- Measured companies
- 490 492 in the index universe
- Weekly breadth
- 232 up / 256 down 2 unchanged
- Weekly peer rank
- 5 of 12
Universe NASDAQ, NYSE · Equity onlyPrice basis Adjusted weekly closeConstruction Capped equal-weight returns · Weekly rebuild
156 completed weeks
Consumer Cyclical price and trend
Current architecture
Downward Expansion
1 completed week in this state
Trend acceptance
-7.1%
Index versus Trend Line
Persistence
100%
Negative across every horizon
Participation
47%
232 advancing, 256 declining
Index Value
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity Lines
Constructive Transition Defensive
Weekly index closes and the Trend Line. Dashed grey shows the latest Fair Value reference; it is not a historical forecast. Enable the other overlays for more detail.
Investor positioning lens
Is the evidence ready for capital?
A rules-based technical classification using trend, breadth, persistence, relative strength and path quality.
Evidence balance
Reduce
Five-pillar map
Trend
28
Breadth
48
Persistence
32
Relative
48
Risk quality
80
What supports the view
- No major confirming factor has secured control.
What restrains conviction
- Index trend architecture has not delivered a durable upward expansion.
- Breadth remains too narrow or inconsistent for a high-conviction position.
- Constituent persistence remains divided or predominantly negative.
- The group is not yet delivering dependable relative outperformance.
- Stage 4 declining constituents exceed Stage 2 advancing constituents by 39 percentage points.
This is a weekly research classification, not personal investment advice. Sentiment is reported as an independent confirmation layer and does not alter the technical score.
Trend state and durability
Architecture, persistence and constituent regimes
The index path is tested against the underlying security-level trend evidence.
The activity fan is bearishly ordered below the Trend Line with price accepted beneath it.
State age1 weeks
Trend gateDown
Fan width6.58%
Fast versus slow change-3.66 pts
Above 0%
Below 100%
Six completed weeks of price acceptance relative to the full Activity Line fan.
Index persistence
100% agreement
Negative across every horizon
The 13, 26, 39 and 52-week trends all point downward, confirming persistent contraction.
13-week
-10.2%
26-week
-5.5%
39-week
-13.7%
52-week
-10.6%
Constituent trend persistence
97% coverage
Is the index move broadly durable?
34%positive
Coherent positive15%
Coherent negative41%
Average horizon agreement82%
Positive horizon share38%
Weakening positives73
Repairing negatives47
474 constituents measured as of 2 Oct 2026. Median trend age is 21 weeks.
Custom stage map
94% coverage
Where constituents sit in the cycle
59%Stage 4
Stage 1 · Basing11%52 securities
Stage 2 · Advancing20%91 securities
Stage 3 · Distribution10%48 securities
Stage 4 · Declining59%272 securities
Re-acceleration watch3
Transition watch44
Relative strength leaders11%
Fair Value repairs37
Measured as of 9 Oct 2026. Stages summarize price, Activity Line architecture, Fair Value position and relative evidence.
Architecture breadth
79/100 mean confidence
How market energy is distributed
Architecture breadth shows the distribution of expanding, rotating, balancing and contracting securities. It is diagnostic context and is not added as a second vote in the positioning score.
Capital rotation
Performance relative to US Market Structure
Relative index
13-week relative trend
Starting level
The relative index starts at 100. Above 100 means this group has outperformed US Market Structure since the first plotted date; below 100 means it has lagged. A rising line can show relative improvement even when both markets are falling.
Relative index81.6
13-week trend82.9
4-week trend change-1.41%
Weekly peer rank5 of 12
1 week
0.3 pts
relative
4 weeks
0.7 pts
relative
13 weeks
-2.8 pts
relative
26 weeks
-3.8 pts
relative
52 weeks
-7.0 pts
relative
Market internals
Participation, dispersion and path risk
Equal-weight index evidence with constituent-level breadth and dispersion.
Breadth
Balanced
Participation quality
47%
advanced
- Advancing
- 232
- Declining
- 256
- Unchanged
- 2
Risk and persistence
52-week lens
Path quality
Annualised weekly volatility18.3%
Drawdown from 52-week high-14.7%
Positive weeks, last 1323%
Current directional run2 weeks
Turnover versus 13-week norm104%
Breadth impulse6.8 pts
Cross-section
490 measured
Return distribution
93Below −5%19%
121−5% to −1%25%
83−1% to +1%17%
117+1% to +5%24%
76Above +5%16%
Weekly returns across measured companies. Bars are scaled to the largest group; percentages show each group’s share.
Q1 -3.6%
Median -0.2%
Q3 3.1%
Average winner4.4%
Average loser-5.3%
Dispersion7.2 pts
Top-five upside share10%
Top-five capital share56%
Capital data coverage100%
Dispersion describes how far constituent outcomes are spreading apart. Capital concentration is contextual only; the index itself is equal weighted.
Momentum cycle
30-week price change
Index price change over 30 weeks, or the available history if shorter. Green above zero; red below.
Breadth cycle
Net participation
Advancers less decliners as a percentage of measured constituents.
Industry map
Where sector leadership is forming
Performance, breadth and trend acceptance across every qualified industry.
10/23
positive
Above Trend Line4/2317% of industries
Constructive breadth13/23At least half advancing
Median industry-0.96%2.45 pts dispersion
#1
Repairing
Luxury Goods
3.44%
Participation67%
vs Trend-0.8%
vs Fair Value10.6%
Members9
#2
Repairing
Lodging
3.31%
Participation82%
vs Trend-1.8%
vs Fair Value17.2%
Members11
#3
Repairing
Internet Retail
2.62%
Participation75%
vs Trend-9.3%
vs Fair Value-3.5%
Members32
#4
Repairing
Personal Services
2.35%
Participation60%
vs Trend-7.0%
vs Fair Value-27.1%
Members10
#5
Repairing
Travel Services
1.57%
Participation81%
vs Trend-0.8%
vs Fair Value8.8%
Members16
#6
Narrowing
Department Stores
1.48%
Participation25%
vs Trend6.8%
vs Fair Value13.8%
Members4
#7
Repairing
Restaurants
1.12%
Participation53%
vs Trend-6.2%
vs Fair Value-14.1%
Members51
#8
Repairing
Apparel Retail
0.94%
Participation62%
vs Trend-3.0%
vs Fair Value-5.7%
Members29
#9
Repairing
Home Improvement Retail
0.48%
Participation67%
vs Trend-7.7%
vs Fair Value-18.5%
Members6
#10
Repairing
Apparel Manufacturing
0.39%
Participation65%
vs Trend-7.1%
vs Fair Value-5.6%
Members23
#11
Weakening
Gambling
-0.60%
Participation64%
vs Trend-22.5%
vs Fair Value-35.5%
Members11
#12
Contracting
Specialty Retail
-0.96%
Participation42%
vs Trend-6.2%
vs Fair Value-20.2%
Members43
#13
Narrowing
Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
-1.00%
Participation36%
vs Trend1.9%
vs Fair Value-0.7%
Members28
#14
Weakening
Leisure
-1.07%
Participation50%
vs Trend-6.3%
vs Fair Value-5.2%
Members28
#15
Weakening
Auto Manufacturers
-1.07%
Participation56%
vs Trend-17.7%
vs Fair Value-44.0%
Members25
#16
Weakening
Footwear & Accessories
-1.29%
Participation57%
vs Trend4.7%
vs Fair Value11.6%
Members14
#17
Contracting
Auto & Truck Dealerships
-1.75%
Participation24%
vs Trend-12.3%
vs Fair Value-16.8%
Members21
#18
Contracting
Packaging & Containers
-1.87%
Participation36%
vs Trend-1.0%
vs Fair Value-4.6%
Members22
#19
Contracting
Resorts & Casinos
-1.97%
Participation29%
vs Trend-14.7%
vs Fair Value-16.5%
Members17
#20
Contracting
Auto Parts
-2.81%
Participation29%
vs Trend-12.5%
vs Fair Value-11.9%
Members55
#21
Narrowing
Textile Manufacturing
-3.32%
Participation25%
vs Trend5.0%
vs Fair Value-8.3%
Members4
#22
Contracting
Residential Construction
-5.15%
Participation5%
vs Trend-9.0%
vs Fair Value-16.6%
Members19
#23
Contracting
Recreational Vehicles
-6.25%
Participation9%
vs Trend-16.3%
vs Fair Value-22.7%
Members11
Industry participation
Where are returns broadly supported?
Compare the weekly result with the share of companies advancing.
↑ Companies advancing · 50% marks half of measured companies
−6.2%Weekly index return · zero at centre+6.2%
Compare return with participationHover or focus a marker for the full reading. Select it to open the report.
Markers show weekly return rank. Hover or focus for the name. Fine lines connect separated markers to their actual positions. Up, down and unchanged companies all count in participation.
United States · Weekly return relationships
Which markets move together?
Compare sectors and industries within United States over the same 52-week window. Strong positive relationships can mean that apparently different holdings share the same risk.
Closest: Industrials and Consumer Cyclical (0.86; 52 weeks).
12 indexes · 66 qualifying pairsClosest: Gold and Other Precious Metals & Mining (0.95; 52 weeks).
143 indexes · 10153 qualifying pairs−1 · Opposite0 · No linear link+1 · Together
Read the market at the top against the market at the left. The diagonal compares each index with itself. Up to 10 indexes are shown, ordered by constituent coverage. Select a cell to inspect a pair, or use the selectors for other markets.
Closest to the reference
Pearson correlation of weekly percentage returns through 9 Oct 2026: +1 means moving together, 0 little linear relationship, −1 moving in opposite directions. Requires 39 matching observations for the 52-week comparison and 10 for the recent 13 weeks. Missing weeks are excluded, not filled with zero. Constant series have no defined correlation. These are local-currency, capped equal-weight indexes; sectors and their component industries overlap. A lower correlation does not establish a hedge.
Sector correlations compare broad business groups. Industry correlations reveal closer links within and across sectors. The selectors retain all qualified groups; the matrix shows the ten largest by company coverage.
News and narrative
Does company news confirm the market tape?
Sentiment evidence is still developing
Qualified company-level news coverage is not yet broad enough to influence the group view.
42 qualified records across 490 measured constituents.Leadership tape
Leaders, laggards and contribution shape
Latest completed week, ranked on uncapped constituent returns.
Constituent ledger
Sector constituents
Top 100 of 490 shown, ranked by latest weekly return.
Rank
Ticker
Company
Exchange
Market cap
Close
Index contribution
Return
71
HDL
SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD. American Depositary Shares
NASDAQ
706.04M
11.90
0.01 pts
5.22%
The index uses capped equal-weight weekly constituent returns. The ledger shows uncapped security returns so outliers remain visible for research.