Counter-trend rallies may occur, but primary structure and persistence do not yet support adding risk.
37
technical evidence
out of 100
out of 100
Specialty Retail
For the week ending 09 October 2026, Specialty Retail declined 0.96% with 18 advancing, 25 declining, and 0 unchanged constituents.
- Index level
- 1,034.20 Index points · base 1,000
- Weekly return
- -0.96%
- Measured companies
- 43 43 in the index universe
- Weekly breadth
- 18 up / 25 down 0 unchanged
- Weekly peer rank
- 12 of 23
Universe NASDAQ, NYSE · Equity onlyPrice basis Adjusted weekly closeConstruction Capped equal-weight returns · Weekly rebuild
Explore Consumer Cyclical →
156 completed weeks
Specialty Retail price and trend
Current architecture
Unresolved
5 completed weeks in this state
Trend acceptance
-6.2%
Index versus Trend Line
Persistence
100%
Negative across every horizon
Participation
42%
18 advancing, 25 declining
Index Value
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity Lines
Constructive Transition Defensive
Weekly index closes and the Trend Line. Dashed grey shows the latest Fair Value reference; it is not a historical forecast. Enable the other overlays for more detail.
Investor positioning lens
Is the evidence ready for capital?
A rules-based technical classification using trend, breadth, persistence, relative strength and path quality.
Evidence balance
Reduce
Five-pillar map
Trend
26
Breadth
43
Persistence
26
Relative
44
Risk quality
70
What supports the view
- No major confirming factor has secured control.
What restrains conviction
- Index trend architecture has not delivered a durable upward expansion.
- Breadth remains too narrow or inconsistent for a high-conviction position.
- Constituent persistence remains divided or predominantly negative.
- The group is not yet delivering dependable relative outperformance.
- Stage 4 declining constituents exceed Stage 2 advancing constituents by 37 percentage points.
This is a weekly research classification, not personal investment advice. Sentiment is reported as an independent confirmation layer and does not alter the technical score.
Trend state and durability
Architecture, persistence and constituent regimes
The index path is tested against the underlying security-level trend evidence.
The Activity Lines, Trend Line and price acceptance remain genuinely mixed.
State age5 weeks
Trend gateMixed
Fan width5.79%
Fast versus slow change-3.80 pts
Above 0%
Below 83%
Six completed weeks of price acceptance relative to the full Activity Line fan.
Index persistence
100% agreement
Negative across every horizon
The 13, 26, 39 and 52-week trends all point downward, confirming persistent contraction.
13-week
-10.4%
26-week
-2.7%
39-week
-16.4%
52-week
-21.4%
Constituent trend persistence
95% coverage
Is the index move broadly durable?
24%positive
Coherent positive12%
Coherent negative44%
Average horizon agreement80%
Positive horizon share36%
Weakening positives4
Repairing negatives8
41 constituents measured as of 2 Oct 2026. Median trend age is 24 weeks.
Custom stage map
95% coverage
Where constituents sit in the cycle
54%Stage 4
Stage 1 · Basing22%9 securities
Stage 2 · Advancing17%7 securities
Stage 3 · Distribution7%3 securities
Stage 4 · Declining54%22 securities
Re-acceleration watch0
Transition watch3
Relative strength leaders15%
Fair Value repairs5
Measured as of 9 Oct 2026. Stages summarize price, Activity Line architecture, Fair Value position and relative evidence.
Architecture breadth
78/100 mean confidence
How market energy is distributed
Architecture breadth shows the distribution of expanding, rotating, balancing and contracting securities. It is diagnostic context and is not added as a second vote in the positioning score.
Capital rotation
Performance relative to Consumer Cyclical
Relative index
13-week relative trend
Starting level
The relative index starts at 100. Above 100 means this group has outperformed Consumer Cyclical since the first plotted date; below 100 means it has lagged. A rising line can show relative improvement even when both markets are falling.
Relative index80.6
13-week trend80.8
4-week trend change0.26%
Weekly peer rank12 of 23
1 week
-0.4 pts
relative
4 weeks
-0.3 pts
relative
13 weeks
-0.2 pts
relative
26 weeks
2.8 pts
relative
52 weeks
-10.8 pts
relative
Market internals
Participation, dispersion and path risk
Equal-weight index evidence with constituent-level breadth and dispersion.
Breadth
Narrow
Participation quality
42%
advanced
- Advancing
- 18
- Declining
- 25
- Unchanged
- 0
Risk and persistence
52-week lens
Path quality
Annualised weekly volatility23.0%
Drawdown from 52-week high-23.2%
Positive weeks, last 1338%
Current directional run2 weeks
Turnover versus 13-week norm110%
Breadth impulse-1.7 pts
Cross-section
43 measured
Return distribution
8Below −5%19%
12−5% to −1%28%
8−1% to +1%19%
8+1% to +5%19%
7Above +5%16%
Weekly returns across measured companies. Bars are scaled to the largest group; percentages show each group’s share.
Q1 -2.9%
Median -0.2%
Q3 2.4%
Average winner4.4%
Average loser-5.0%
Dispersion7.0 pts
Top-five upside share53%
Top-five capital share62%
Capital data coverage100%
Dispersion describes how far constituent outcomes are spreading apart. Capital concentration is contextual only; the index itself is equal weighted.
Momentum cycle
30-week price change
Index price change over 30 weeks, or the available history if shorter. Green above zero; red below.
Breadth cycle
Net participation
Advancers less decliners as a percentage of measured constituents.
Within the same sector
Where are returns broadly supported?
Compare the weekly result with the share of companies advancing.
↑ Companies advancing · 50% marks half of measured companies
−6.2%Weekly index return · zero at centre+6.2%
Compare return with participationHover or focus a marker for the full reading. Select it to open the report.
Markers show weekly return rank. Hover or focus for the name. Fine lines connect separated markers to their actual positions. Up, down and unchanged companies all count in participation.
| Rank / Industry | Weekly return | Advancing share | Up / down | Companies | Week ending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Luxury GoodsConsumer Cyclical | 3.44% | 67% | 6 / 3 | 9 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 2LodgingConsumer Cyclical | 3.31% | 82% | 9 / 2 | 11 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 3Internet RetailConsumer Cyclical | 2.62% | 75% | 24 / 8 | 32 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 4Personal ServicesConsumer Cyclical | 2.35% | 60% | 6 / 4 | 10 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 5Travel ServicesConsumer Cyclical | 1.57% | 81% | 13 / 3 | 16 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 6Department StoresConsumer Cyclical | 1.48% | 25% | 1 / 3 | 4 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 7RestaurantsConsumer Cyclical | 1.12% | 53% | 27 / 23 | 51 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 8Apparel RetailConsumer Cyclical | 0.94% | 62% | 18 / 11 | 29 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 9Home Improvement RetailConsumer Cyclical | 0.48% | 67% | 4 / 2 | 6 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 10Apparel ManufacturingConsumer Cyclical | 0.39% | 65% | 15 / 7 | 23 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 11GamblingConsumer Cyclical | -0.60% | 64% | 7 / 4 | 11 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 12Specialty RetailConsumer Cyclical | -0.96% | 42% | 18 / 25 | 43 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 13Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesConsumer Cyclical | -1.00% | 36% | 10 / 18 | 28 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 14LeisureConsumer Cyclical | -1.07% | 50% | 14 / 14 | 28 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 15Auto ManufacturersConsumer Cyclical | -1.07% | 56% | 14 / 11 | 25 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 16Footwear & AccessoriesConsumer Cyclical | -1.29% | 57% | 8 / 6 | 14 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 17Auto & Truck DealershipsConsumer Cyclical | -1.75% | 24% | 5 / 16 | 21 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 18Packaging & ContainersConsumer Cyclical | -1.87% | 36% | 8 / 14 | 22 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 19Resorts & CasinosConsumer Cyclical | -1.97% | 29% | 5 / 12 | 17 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 20Auto PartsConsumer Cyclical | -2.81% | 29% | 16 / 39 | 55 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 21Textile ManufacturingConsumer Cyclical | -3.32% | 25% | 1 / 3 | 4 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 22Residential ConstructionConsumer Cyclical | -5.15% | 5% | 1 / 18 | 19 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 23Recreational VehiclesConsumer Cyclical | -6.25% | 9% | 1 / 10 | 11 | 9 Oct 2026 |
United States · Weekly return relationships
Which markets move together?
Compare sectors and industries within United States over the same 52-week window. Strong positive relationships can mean that apparently different holdings share the same risk.
Closest: Industrials and Consumer Cyclical (0.86; 52 weeks).
12 indexes · 66 qualifying pairsClosest: Gold and Other Precious Metals & Mining (0.95; 52 weeks).
143 indexes · 10153 qualifying pairs−1 · Opposite0 · No linear link+1 · Together
Read the market at the top against the market at the left. The diagonal compares each index with itself. Up to 10 indexes are shown, ordered by constituent coverage. Select a cell to inspect a pair, or use the selectors for other markets.
Closest to the reference
Pearson correlation of weekly percentage returns through 9 Oct 2026: +1 means moving together, 0 little linear relationship, −1 moving in opposite directions. Requires 39 matching observations for the 52-week comparison and 10 for the recent 13 weeks. Missing weeks are excluded, not filled with zero. Constant series have no defined correlation. These are local-currency, capped equal-weight indexes; sectors and their component industries overlap. A lower correlation does not establish a hedge.
Sector correlations compare broad business groups. Industry correlations reveal closer links within and across sectors. The selectors retain all qualified groups; the matrix shows the ten largest by company coverage.
News and narrative
Does company news confirm the market tape?
Sentiment evidence is still developing
Qualified company-level news coverage is not yet broad enough to influence the group view.
2 qualified records across 43 measured constituents.Leadership tape
Leaders, laggards and contribution shape
Latest completed week, ranked on uncapped constituent returns.
Constituent ledger
Industry constituents
All 43 measured constituents, ranked by latest weekly return.
Rank
Ticker
Company
Exchange
Market cap
Close
Index contribution
Return
38
CGTL
Creative Global Technology Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares
NASDAQ
7.26M
3.45
-0.19 pts
-8.24%
The index uses capped equal-weight weekly constituent returns. The ledger shows uncapped security returns so outliers remain visible for research.