Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
SWBI options intelligence
Smith & Wesson Brands Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
50
Market data through 11 Aug 2026
Checked 12 Aug 2026 07:06 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
SWBI currently carries bullish options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
5.3%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.05
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-2.1%
RS 5.1
Expected move
5.3%
Put-call volume
0.05
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.31
Max pain
15.00
Underlying
14.25
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
222
Research Brief
SWBI has a bullish chain read with 50/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 13.50–15.00; The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.00; the largest put concentration is 15.00. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00.
Priced range13.50–15.00
Call concentration17.00
Put concentration15.00
Max pain reference15.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 13.50 to 15.00. Max pain at 15.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
13.5014.25 ± 0.7515.00
Confirmation level
A close beyond 15.00 or below 13.50 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 50/100
Pressure is 99/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure99 × 42%
+41.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation20 × 22%
+4.5
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility43 × 10%
+4.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.00; the largest put concentration is 15.00. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
3
6.00-57.9%
0
2
7.00-50.9%
0
0
8.00-43.9%
0
0
9.00-36.8%
0
0
10.00-29.8%
10
1
12.00-15.8%
0
27
13.00-8.8%
5
89
14.00-1.8%
3
102
15.005.3%
97
18
16.0012.3%
118
22
17.0019.3%
338
0
18.0026.3%
238
0
19.0033.3%
189
0
20.0040.4%
3
0
22.0054.4%
1
0
25.0075.4%
9
0
35.00145.6%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$114,220Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak10.00+$35,620
Negative peak14.00-$10,539
Nearest balance14.26Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
3.00-78.9%
+$0
5.00-64.9%
-$5
6.00-57.9%
-$2
7.00-50.9%
-$18
8.00-43.9%
-$1,047
9.00-36.8%
-$14
10.00-29.8%
+$35,620
11.00-22.8%
+$258
12.00-15.8%
+$18,974
13.00-8.8%
-$1,428
14.00-1.8%
-$10,539
15.005.3%
+$29,832
16.0012.3%
+$7,566
17.0019.3%
+$11,765
18.0026.3%
+$7,349
19.0033.3%
+$2,711
20.0040.4%
+$9,412
21.0047.4%
+$1,443
22.0054.4%
+$1,521
23.0061.4%
+$18
25.0075.4%
+$755
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.31
21 Aug
10d
0.56
18 Sep
38d
0.49
18 Dec
129d
0.46
15 Jan
157d
0.47
19 Mar
220d
0.49
21 Jan
528d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
12
13
14
15
16
17
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 11 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 222 / 222
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $120,954 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+99
1W price-2.1%
Call premium99%
Put premium1%
Notional split
C 99% / P 1%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 260 contracts traded, $118,650 estimated gross traded notional, and 98% of visible notional.
$118,650
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $660 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$660
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 13 contracts traded, $465 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$465
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 25 contracts traded, $449 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$449
Puts · 22-45 days · ATM
puts cluster with 4 contracts traded, $350 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$350
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
9 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 9 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close14.25
1W-2.1%
RS5.1
Fair value+21.2%
Options pressure99
Speculation20
Volatility43
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:20
Bullish
Pressure 93
Move 8.5%
30 Jul 11:04
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 7.5%
31 Jul 04:38
Bullish
Pressure 84
Move 7.3%
1 Aug 00:29
Bullish
Pressure 44
Move 7.5%
2 Aug 18:19
Bullish
Pressure 54
Move 7.6%
4 Aug 10:41
Mixed
Pressure 16
Move 6.4%
5 Aug 11:11
Bullish
Pressure 65
Move 6.5%
6 Aug 11:14
Bullish
Pressure 72
Move 6.0%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike9.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike11.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike13.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 27
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV0.31
Put-call0.20
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.56
Put-call0.38
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV0.49
Put-call5.00
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts38
Avg IV0.46
Put-call0.00
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts38
Avg IV0.47
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.19
Put IV0.41
Skew0.22
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.62
Skew0.10
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.54
Skew0.05
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.49
Skew0.06
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.50
Skew0.08
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractSWBI270115C00010000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike10.00
Volume255
OI4991
IV0.44
ContractSWBI260821C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume22
OI97
IV0.19
ContractSWBI260918C00016000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike16.00
Volume6
OI219
IV0.52
ContractSWBI280121C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike10.00
Volume5
OI220
IV0.38
ContractSWBI260821P00014000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike14.00
Volume5
OI89
IV0.41
ContractSWBI261218P00009000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike9.00
Volume5
OI2
IV0.65
ContractSWBI260918P00014000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike14.00
Volume4
OI257
IV0.56
ContractSWBI260918C00017000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike17.00
Volume4
OI214
IV0.52
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Market Watch
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.