Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
CHDN options intelligence
Churchill Downs Incorporated options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
29
Market data through 10 Aug 2026
Checked 11 Aug 2026 13:42 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
CHDN currently carries bullish options pressure with a 29/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.
Expected move
6.1%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.00
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.38
Call-side skew
Trend fit
36
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+4.2%
RS -19.9
Expected move
6.1%
Put-call volume
0.38
Volume / OI
0.00
Reference IV
0.42
Max pain
80.00
Underlying
87.86
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
172
Research Brief
CHDN has a bullish chain read with 29/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 82.54–93.18; The largest call open-interest concentration is 90.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 80.00.
Priced range82.54–93.18
Call concentration90.00
Put concentration80.00
Max pain reference80.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 82.54 to 93.18. Max pain at 80.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
82.5487.86 ± 5.3293.18
Confirmation level
A close beyond 93.18 or below 82.54 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 29/100
Pressure is 33/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure33 × 42%
+13.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation2 × 22%
+0.4
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement36 × 26%
+9.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility54 × 10%
+5.4
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 90.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 80.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
50.00-43.1%
0
0
55.00-37.4%
0
0
60.00-31.7%
0
2
65.00-26.0%
0
39
70.00-20.3%
0
27
75.00-14.6%
0
588
80.00-8.9%
607
76
85.00-3.3%
780
307
90.002.4%
2353
0
95.008.1%
414
0
100.0013.8%
1192
0
105.0019.5%
8
0
110.0025.2%
455
0
115.0030.9%
1
0
120.0036.6%
0
0
125.0042.3%
0
0
130.0048.0%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Negative gamma proxy
Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile-$2.6MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak90.00+$889,369
Negative peak75.00-$4.2M
Nearest balance80.16Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
45.00-48.8%
+$217
50.00-43.1%
+$20
55.00-37.4%
+$30
60.00-31.7%
+$256
65.00-26.0%
+$118
70.00-20.3%
-$49,520
75.00-14.6%
-$4.2M
80.00-8.9%
-$12,513
85.00-3.3%
+$383,154
90.002.4%
+$889,369
95.008.1%
+$88,713
100.0013.8%
+$272,417
105.0019.5%
+$5,628
110.0025.2%
+$9,117
115.0030.9%
+$2,774
120.0036.6%
+$42,067
125.0042.3%
-$44
130.0048.0%
+$35
135.0053.7%
+$11
140.0059.3%
+$19
150.0070.7%
+$1,006
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.42
21 Aug
11d
0.33
18 Sep
39d
0.39
18 Dec
130d
0.40
19 Mar
221d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 10 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 172 / 172
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Call activity against legacy put OI
Call activity is dominant while put open interest remains large but current put volume is not leading.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Call activity against legacy put OI matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $22,830 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · atm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+33
1W price+4.2%
Call premium84%
Put premium16%
Notional split
C 84% / P 16%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.00
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
36/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Do not infer a hedge unwind without next-session open-interest changes and opening/closing data.
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM
calls cluster with 63 contracts traded, $16,695 estimated gross traded notional, and 73% of visible notional.
$16,695
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 32 contracts traded, $2,960 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$2,960
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 20 contracts traded, $1,650 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$1,650
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 6 contracts traded, $792 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$792
Puts · 22-45 days · ATM
puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $580 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$580
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
8 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 8 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close87.86
1W+4.2%
RS-19.9
Fair value-22.2%
Options pressure33
Speculation2
Volatility54
Trend fit36
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 8/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 8/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 8/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 8/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 8/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 8/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 8/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 8/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:36
Bullish
Pressure 66
Move 11.1%
30 Jul 06:18
Bullish
Pressure 25
Move 10.0%
31 Jul 08:09
Bearish
Pressure -50
Move 7.0%
31 Jul 14:51
Bearish
Pressure -72
Move 7.1%
31 Jul 23:30
Bearish
Pressure -71
Move 6.6%
2 Aug 18:14
Bullish
Pressure 36
Move 6.8%
2 Aug 18:36
Bearish
Pressure -71
Move 6.8%
4 Aug 10:42
Bullish
Pressure 82
Move 6.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 39
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 27
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 607
Puts · V 32 · OI 588
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 780
Puts · V 0 · OI 76
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.42
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.33
Put-call0.02
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.39
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts34
Avg IV0.40
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.55
Skew0.17
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.37
Skew-0.03
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.41
Skew0.02
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.38
Put IV0.41
Skew0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCHDN260918C00090000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike90.00
Volume63
OI271
IV0.36
ContractCHDN260821P00080000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike80.00
Volume32
OI588
IV0.55
ContractCHDN260918C00100000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike100.00
Volume20
OI406
IV0.40
ContractCHDN261218C00110000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike110.00
Volume5
OI36
IV0.35
ContractCHDN261218C00120000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike120.00
Volume1
OI607
IV0.39
ContractCHDN260918P00090000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike90.00
Volume1
OI378
IV0.35
ContractCHDN260918P00080000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike80.00
Volume1
OI105
IV0.37
ContractCHDN260918P00075000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike75.00
Volume-
OI30562
IV0.41
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.