Ticker Options Intelligence

COIN options intelligence

Coinbase Global Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 37 Market data through 15 Sep 2026 Checked 16 Sep 2026 11:01 · partial chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

COIN currently carries mixed options pressure with a 37/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.31.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 5.8%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.31

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.12

Balanced tape

Trend fit 67

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -5.1%

RS -27.9

Expected move 5.8%
Put-call volume 1.12
Volume / OI 0.31
Reference IV 0.80
Max pain 177.50
Underlying 175.26
Nearest expiry 18 Sep 2026
Contracts 2000

Research Brief

COIN has a mixed chain read with 37/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 165.06–185.46; The largest call open-interest concentration is 740.00; the largest put concentration is 160.00. The most active strike by current volume is 160.00.

Priced range165.06–185.46
Call concentration740.00
Put concentration160.00
Max pain reference177.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
  • Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 18 Sep

Options imply 165.06 to 185.46. Max pain at 177.50 sits inside that range, 1.3% above spot.

Spot Max pain
165.06175.26 ± 10.20185.46
Confirmation level

A close beyond 185.46 or below 165.06 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 37/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 2/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure2 × 42%
+0.9

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation47 × 22%
+10.4

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement67 × 26%
+17.5

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility79 × 10%
+7.9

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score36.6Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 740.00; the largest put concentration is 160.00. The most active strike by current volume is 160.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
9447
100.00-42.9%
98
5876
150.00-14.4%
1231
13793
160.00-8.7%
3241
2935
165.00-5.9%
1411
5514
170.00-3.0%
9077
4237
175.00-0.1%
7295
1248
177.501.3%
4628
3254
180.002.7%
4910
2138
182.504.1%
9281
5024
185.005.6%
4707
2999
190.008.4%
7973
296
192.509.8%
6769
585
195.0011.3%
2940
2041
200.0014.1%
8696
2228
210.0019.8%
5546
2462
220.0025.5%
5469
0
740.00322.2%
9316
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Balanced gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 98% coverage

Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.

Net profile+$16.7MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak182.50+$5.1M
Negative peak160.00-$6.8M
Nearest balance173.56Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
150.00-14.4%
-$497,036
152.50-13.0%
-$119,925
155.00-11.6%
-$1.5M
157.50-10.1%
-$342,431
160.00-8.7%
-$6.8M
162.50-7.3%
-$412,702
165.00-5.9%
-$2.1M
167.50-4.4%
-$1.2M
170.00-3.0%
+$4.5M
172.50-1.6%
-$2.0M
175.00-0.1%
+$2.8M
177.501.3%
+$3.1M
180.002.7%
+$1.2M
182.504.1%
+$5.1M
185.005.6%
+$312,593
187.507.0%
+$344,644
190.008.4%
+$2.5M
192.509.8%
+$2.4M
195.0011.3%
+$1.1M
197.5012.7%
+$144,704
200.0014.1%
+$4.5M
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.13× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.80 18 Sep 3d
0.69 25 Sep 10d
0.67 2 Oct 17d
0.67 9 Oct 24d
0.66 16 Oct 31d
0.66 23 Oct 38d
0.73 30 Oct 45d
0.71 20 Nov 66d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

145
146
148
149
153
155
160
163
168
170
173
178
180
185
188
193
195
200
203
208
210
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

27 matured · 23 directional

Across 23 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 52% of the time.

Directional follow-through52%
Moves contained by pricing74%
Average expiry move8.3%
9 Sep Bullish · 45 -5.1% through expiry 6.6% priced · v2.0
8 Sep Bullish · 39 -5.1% through expiry 6.2% priced · v2.0
4 Sep Bullish · 36 -5.1% through expiry 6.6% priced · v2.0
3 Sep Bullish · 43 3.4% through expiry 8.6% priced · v2.0
2 Sep Volatility · 59 3.4% through expiry 5.5% priced · v2.0
31 Aug Bullish · 42 3.4% through expiry 7.8% priced · v2.0
28 Aug Bullish · 37 3.4% through expiry 6.5% priced · v2.0
26 Aug Bullish · 38 -4.2% through expiry 5.1% priced · v2.0
25 Aug Bullish · 39 -4.2% through expiry 5.6% priced · v2.0
24 Aug Bullish · 39 -4.2% through expiry 7.5% priced · v2.0
21 Aug Bullish · 39 -4.2% through expiry 8.1% priced · v2.0
20 Aug Bullish · 42 25.6% through expiry 16.4% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Good

B79/100
Retained chain65%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Retained chain subset
Market date
15 Sep 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
2000 / 3084
  • 65% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

59/100
Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $112.9M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 0-7 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-2
1W price-5.1%
Call premium36%
Put premium64%
Notional split C 36% / P 64% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.31 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 67/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM puts cluster with 9821 contracts traded, $20.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$20.2M
Puts · 0-7 days · OTM puts cluster with 93978 contracts traded, $13.7M estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$13.7M
Puts · 0-7 days · ATM puts cluster with 16476 contracts traded, $10.7M estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$10.7M
Puts · 22-45 days · OTM puts cluster with 11826 contracts traded, $6.7M estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$6.7M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 4915 contracts traded, $6.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$6.1M

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

High anomaly

88

Current options activity is unusually hot versus this ticker's stored history.

Baseline: 30 completed sessions

Volume rank93th
Volume/OI rank93th
IV rank77th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close175.26
1W-5.1%
RS-27.9
Fair value-19.9%
Options pressure-2
Speculation47
Volatility79
Trend fit67

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 5.8% near normal
30d avg 7.3% · 16 sessions 31th
90d avg 6.9% · 30 sessions 33th
180d avg - · 30/60 sessions -
IV 0.80 elevated
30d avg 0.71 · 16 sessions 94th
90d avg 0.79 · 30 sessions 77th
180d avg - · 30/60 sessions -
Put-call 1.12 elevated
30d avg 0.49 · 16 sessions 100th
90d avg 0.55 · 30 sessions 100th
180d avg - · 30/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.31 elevated
30d avg 0.16 · 16 sessions 88th
90d avg 0.14 · 30 sessions 93th
180d avg - · 30/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
5 Aug 08:32 Bullish
Pressure 49
Move 6.8%
6 Aug 12:03 Bullish
Pressure 26
Move 5.8%
7 Aug 12:30 Bullish
Pressure 25
Move 3.3%
10 Aug 06:25 Bullish
Pressure 54
Move 6.9%
11 Aug 10:42 Bullish
Pressure 33
Move 6.1%
11 Aug 19:57 Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 5.5%
13 Aug 10:06 Bullish
Pressure 34
Move 4.3%
14 Aug 10:06 Bullish
Pressure 53
Move 3.0%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 24
Puts · V 0 · OI 77
Strike10.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 40
Puts · V 0 · OI 244
Strike15.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 31
Strike20.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 92
Strike25.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 29
Strike30.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 82
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 185
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 81

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts268
Avg IV0.80
Put-call1.30
Expiry25 Sep 2026
Contracts168
Avg IV0.69
Put-call0.66
Expiry2 Oct 2026
Contracts156
Avg IV0.67
Put-call0.75
Expiry9 Oct 2026
Contracts138
Avg IV0.67
Put-call1.60
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts106
Avg IV0.66
Put-call0.80

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.82
Put IV0.78
Skew-0.05
25 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.73
Put IV0.69
Skew-0.04
2 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.71
Put IV0.65
Skew-0.06
9 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.68
Put IV0.64
Skew-0.04
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.68
Put IV0.66
Skew-0.02

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCOIN260918P00160000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike160.00
Volume33520
OI13793
IV0.80
ContractCOIN260918P00170000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike170.00
Volume16584
OI5514
IV0.78
ContractCOIN260918C00200000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike200.00
Volume15508
OI8696
IV0.93
ContractCOIN260918P00165000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike165.00
Volume11483
OI2935
IV0.78
ContractCOIN260918P00150000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike150.00
Volume10930
OI5876
IV0.91
ContractCOIN260918C00190000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike190.00
Volume10865
OI7973
IV0.85
ContractCOIN260918C00180000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike180.00
Volume10156
OI4910
IV0.81
ContractCOIN260918P00175000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike175.00
Volume9107
OI4237
IV0.79

Evidence context