Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
XOM options intelligence
Exxon Mobil Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
35
Market data through 12 Aug 2026
Checked 12 Aug 2026 20:00 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
XOM currently carries bullish options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
4.9%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.65
Call-side skew
Trend fit
40
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-1.5%
RS 2.5
Expected move
4.9%
Put-call volume
0.65
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.44
Max pain
155.00
Underlying
153.04
Nearest expiry
14 Aug 2026
Contracts
1007
Research Brief
XOM has a bullish chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 145.58–160.50; The largest call open-interest concentration is 165.00; the largest put concentration is 155.00. The most active strike by current volume is 165.00.
Priced range145.58–160.50
Call concentration165.00
Put concentration155.00
Max pain reference155.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 145.58 to 160.50. Max pain at 155.00 sits inside that range, 1.3% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
145.58153.04 ± 7.46160.50
Confirmation level
A close beyond 160.50 or below 145.58 at the 14 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 35/100
Pressure is 26/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure26 × 42%
+10.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement40 × 26%
+10.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility50 × 10%
+5.0
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 165.00; the largest put concentration is 155.00. The most active strike by current volume is 165.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
762
129.00-15.7%
200
982
130.00-15.1%
230
774
140.00-8.5%
140
2461
142.00-7.2%
90
911
145.00-5.3%
833
741
146.00-4.6%
261
778
148.00-3.3%
495
849
150.00-2.0%
821
879
152.50-0.4%
1036
2509
155.001.3%
4243
2059
157.502.9%
1394
1227
160.004.5%
6507
180
162.506.2%
1709
157
165.007.8%
13576
133
167.509.4%
2996
127
170.0011.1%
2039
0
175.0014.3%
853
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$77.5MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak160.00+$23.2M
Negative peak135.00-$3.6M
Nearest balance152.72Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
137.00-10.5%
+$47,342
138.00-9.8%
-$36,998
139.00-9.2%
-$142,695
140.00-8.5%
-$2.1M
141.00-7.9%
+$34,300
142.00-7.2%
-$898,462
143.00-6.6%
-$355,331
144.00-5.9%
-$213,962
145.00-5.3%
-$3.5M
146.00-4.6%
-$463,525
147.00-3.9%
-$1.1M
148.00-3.3%
-$800,382
149.00-2.6%
-$542,412
150.00-2.0%
+$6.1M
152.50-0.4%
-$1.5M
155.001.3%
+$15.4M
157.502.9%
+$377,107
160.004.5%
+$23.2M
162.506.2%
+$880,924
165.007.8%
+$14.4M
167.509.4%
+$319,571
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.44
14 Aug
2d
0.32
21 Aug
9d
0.29
28 Aug
16d
0.29
4 Sep
23d
0.29
11 Sep
30d
0.28
18 Sep
37d
0.31
25 Sep
44d
0.29
16 Oct
65d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
123
125
128
130
132
134
135
137
139
141
143
145
147
149
153
155
160
165
170
175
180
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 2 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 0% of the time.
Directional follow-through0%
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move1.4%
6 Aug
Mixed · 31
-1.5% through expiry
1.6% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Bullish · 34
-1.5% through expiry
2.7% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Mixed · 33
-1.5% through expiry
2.6% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Mixed · 41
-1.5% through expiry
3.0% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Bullish · 40
-1.5% through expiry
3.4% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Mixed · 35
-1.0% through expiry
2.3% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 12 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1007 / 1007
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Short-dated OTM call concentration
Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $32.7M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+26
1W price-1.5%
Call premium67%
Put premium33%
Notional split
C 67% / P 33%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
40/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 1889 contracts traded, $8.9M estimated gross traded notional, and 27% of visible notional.
$8.9M
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 2632 contracts traded, $8.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 25% of visible notional.
$8.1M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 4022 contracts traded, $2.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$2.5M
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 1028 contracts traded, $2.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$2.5M
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 889 contracts traded, $2.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$2.2M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Quiet tape
Activity is muted versus this ticker's stored history.
Baseline: 11 completed sessions
Volume rank0th
Volume/OI rank0th
IV rank73th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close153.04
1W-1.5%
RS2.5
Fair value+34.1%
Options pressure26
Speculation41
Volatility50
Trend fit40
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 3.2% · 11 sessions
82th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.39 · 11 sessions
73th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.69 · 11 sessions
45th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.06 · 11 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
4 Aug 19:50
Mixed
Pressure 15
Move 2.6%
4 Aug 21:14
Mixed
Pressure 16
Move 2.6%
5 Aug 14:10
Bullish
Pressure 35
Move 2.7%
5 Aug 15:40
Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 2.8%
5 Aug 17:00
Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 2.6%
5 Aug 18:20
Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 2.6%
5 Aug 19:50
Bullish
Pressure 26
Move 2.7%
6 Aug 15:30
Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 2.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 3 · OI 5
Strike90.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike95.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike105.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike110.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike120.00
Calls · V 32 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 25
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts96
Avg IV0.44
Put-call0.34
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts83
Avg IV0.32
Put-call0.29
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts81
Avg IV0.29
Put-call0.35
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.29
Put-call0.90
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV0.29
Put-call0.15
Skew
Call/put IV balance
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.48
Skew0.21
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.32
Skew0.08
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.33
Skew0.06
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.30
Skew0.03
11 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.31
Skew0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractXOM260918P00210000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike210.00
Volume-
OI120
IV1.44
ContractXOM260828P00080000
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike80.00
Volume-
OI40
IV1.06
ContractXOM260828P00167500
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike167.50
Volume-
OI29
IV0.41
ContractXOM260814P00120000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike120.00
Volume-
OI25
IV1.30
ContractXOM260904C00185000
SideCall
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike185.00
Volume-
OI21
IV0.45
ContractXOM260828P00090000
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike90.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.89
ContractXOM260821C00136000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike136.00
Volume-
OI18
IV0.74
ContractXOM260828P00075000
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike75.00
Volume-
OI10
IV1.16
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.