Ticker Options Intelligence

FMNB options intelligence

Farmers National Banc Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 49 Market data through 11 Aug 2026 Checked 12 Aug 2026 14:20 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

FMNB currently carries bullish options pressure with a 49/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 8.7%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.00

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -1.1%

RS 0.4

Expected move 8.7%
Put-call volume -
Volume / OI 0.00
Reference IV 0.53
Max pain 12.50
Underlying 15.69
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 80

Research Brief

FMNB has a bullish chain read with 49/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 14.32–17.06; The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 17.50.

Priced range14.32–17.06
Call concentration15.00
Put concentration12.50
Max pain reference12.50
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 14.32 to 17.06. Max pain at 12.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
14.3215.69 ± 1.3717.06
Confirmation level

A close beyond 17.06 or below 14.32 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 49/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation0 × 22%
+0.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility72 × 10%
+7.2

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score49.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 17.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-84.1%
0
0
5.00-68.1%
0
0
7.50-52.2%
0
0
10.00-36.3%
0
10
12.50-20.3%
0
0
15.00-4.4%
73
0
17.5011.5%
0
0
20.0027.5%
0
0
22.5043.4%
0
0
25.0059.3%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 93% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$3,198Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak15.00+$2,274
Negative peak12.50-$39
Nearest balance12.54Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
7.50-52.2%
-$2
12.50-20.3%
-$39
15.00-4.4%
+$2,274
17.5011.5%
+$899
20.0027.5%
+$65
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.65× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.53 21 Aug 10d
0.41 18 Sep 38d
0.23 18 Dec 129d
0.20 19 Mar 220d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

15
18
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
11 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
80 / 80
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Directional flow, confirmation needed

36/100
Primary intent Directional flow, confirmation needed

There is useful activity, but aggregate chain data does not isolate participant intent.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Directional flow, confirmation needed matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $4 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+100
1W price-1.1%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 100% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $4 estimated gross traded notional, and 100% of visible notional.
$4

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

53

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 10 completed sessions

Volume rank50th
Volume/OI rank40th
IV rank70th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close15.69
1W-1.1%
RS0.4
Fair value+23.5%
Options pressure100
Speculation0
Volatility72
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 8.7% near normal
30d avg 12.3% · 10 sessions 30th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
IV 0.53 near normal
30d avg 0.57 · 10 sessions 70th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 near normal
30d avg 0.11 · 10 sessions 40th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:17 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 11.0%
30 Jul 11:02 Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 8.7%
30 Jul 15:14 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 24.9%
30 Jul 17:06 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 24.4%
31 Jul 13:34 Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 10.8%
3 Aug 10:27 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 10.2%
4 Aug 03:59 Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 7.8%
4 Aug 21:20 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 25.8%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 73
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.53
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.41
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.23
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV0.20
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.24
Skew-0.04
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.14
Put IV0.12
Skew-0.02
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.07
Put IV0.07
Skew-
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.04
Put IV0.06
Skew0.02

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractFMNB260821C00017500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.50
Volume1
OI-
IV0.28
ContractFMNB260821C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI73
IV0.01
ContractFMNB260918C00015000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI45
IV0.44
ContractFMNB261218C00015000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI26
IV0.41
ContractFMNB261218C00017500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI17
IV0.07
ContractFMNB260918C00017500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI12
IV0.14
ContractFMNB260918C00020000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.31
ContractFMNB260821P00012500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI10
IV0.72

Evidence context