Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
VLO options intelligence
Valero Energy Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
38
Market data through 16 Sep 2026
Checked 17 Sep 2026 11:04 · partial chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
VLO currently carries mixed options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.09.
Expected move
4.7%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.09
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.97
Balanced tape
Trend fit
81
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+5.9%
RS 65.3
Expected move
4.7%
Put-call volume
0.97
Volume / OI
0.09
Reference IV
0.62
Max pain
320.00
Underlying
390.42
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
2000
Research Brief
VLO has a mixed chain read with 38/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 372.02–408.82; The largest call open-interest concentration is 380.00; the largest put concentration is 300.00. The most active strike by current volume is 340.00.
Priced range372.02–408.82
Call concentration380.00
Put concentration300.00
Max pain reference320.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 372.02 to 408.82. Max pain at 320.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
372.02390.42 ± 18.40408.82
Confirmation level
A close beyond 408.82 or below 372.02 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 38/100
Pressure is 3/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure3 × 42%
+1.1
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement81 × 26%
+20.9
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility62 × 10%
+6.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 380.00; the largest put concentration is 300.00. The most active strike by current volume is 340.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1577
220.00-43.7%
359
1045
240.00-38.5%
648
600
250.00-36.0%
978
387
260.00-33.4%
991
493
270.00-30.8%
867
591
280.00-28.3%
1168
1776
300.00-23.2%
1773
489
310.00-20.6%
604
787
320.00-18.0%
2276
1244
330.00-15.5%
1453
1713
340.00-12.9%
1124
794
350.00-10.4%
1238
309
360.00-7.8%
845
997
370.00-5.2%
599
574
380.00-2.7%
2305
85
395.001.2%
677
73
400.002.5%
998
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$10.7MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak400.00+$3.5M
Negative peak320.00-$4.6M
Nearest balance387.56Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
365.00-6.5%
-$83,206
367.50-5.9%
-$39,418
370.00-5.2%
-$641,777
372.50-4.6%
-$75,433
375.00-3.9%
-$483,984
377.50-3.3%
-$99,874
380.00-2.7%
+$2.7M
382.50-2.0%
-$39,849
385.00-1.4%
-$283,278
387.50-0.7%
-$89,449
390.00-0.1%
+$3.4M
392.500.5%
+$58,055
395.001.2%
+$1.8M
397.501.8%
+$999,891
400.002.5%
+$3.5M
402.503.1%
+$13,895
405.003.7%
+$560,137
407.504.4%
+$51,394
410.005.0%
+$1.6M
412.505.7%
+$213,495
415.006.3%
+$643,692
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.62
18 Sep
2d
0.55
25 Sep
9d
0.53
2 Oct
16d
0.53
9 Oct
23d
0.53
16 Oct
30d
0.53
23 Oct
37d
0.53
30 Oct
44d
0.53
20 Nov
65d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
315
325
330
338
343
350
358
363
370
375
383
390
395
403
408
415
423
428
435
440
448
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 18 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 22% of the time.
Directional follow-through22%
Moves contained by pricing37%
Average expiry move5.5%
16 Sep
Mixed · 38
5.9% through expiry
4.7% priced · v2.0
14 Sep
Mixed · 38
5.9% through expiry
5.0% priced · v2.0
11 Sep
Bearish · 41
5.9% through expiry
4.9% priced · v2.0
10 Sep
Bearish · 41
5.3% through expiry
4.6% priced · v2.0
8 Sep
Mixed · 38
5.3% through expiry
4.9% priced · v2.0
4 Sep
Bearish · 45
5.3% through expiry
4.3% priced · v2.0
2 Sep
Bearish · 42
5.2% through expiry
4.4% priced · v2.0
31 Aug
Bearish · 40
5.2% through expiry
4.1% priced · v2.0
28 Aug
Bullish · 46
5.2% through expiry
4.3% priced · v2.0
27 Aug
Mixed · 38
1.0% through expiry
1.9% priced · v2.0
26 Aug
Bearish · 39
1.0% through expiry
2.7% priced · v2.0
25 Aug
Bearish · 40
1.0% through expiry
4.0% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain98%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Retained chain subset
- Market date
- 16 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 2000 / 2044
- 98% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $33.3M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 0-7 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-3
1W price+5.9%
Call premium80%
Put premium20%
Notional split
C 80% / P 20%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.09
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
81/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 1511 contracts traded, $10.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 30% of visible notional.
$10.0M
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 503 contracts traded, $5.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$5.2M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 1090 contracts traded, $2.9M estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$2.9M
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 756 contracts traded, $2.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$2.5M
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 178 contracts traded, $1.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$1.2M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Activity Anomaly
Above normal
Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.
Baseline: 31 completed sessions
Volume rank90th
Volume/OI rank77th
IV rank84th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close413.28
1W+5.9%
RS65.3
Fair value+148.7%
Options pressure-3
Speculation42
Volatility62
Trend fit81
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 3.9% · 17 sessions
82th
90d avg 4.6% · 31 sessions
71th
180d avg - · 31/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.46 · 17 sessions
94th
90d avg 0.51 · 31 sessions
84th
180d avg - · 31/60 sessions
-
30d avg 1.97 · 17 sessions
12th
90d avg 1.48 · 31 sessions
39th
180d avg - · 31/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.09 · 17 sessions
65th
90d avg 0.08 · 31 sessions
77th
180d avg - · 31/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
11 Aug 10:22
Bullish
Pressure 19
Move 6.5%
12 Aug 10:22
Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 8.9%
13 Aug 10:02
Volatility
Pressure 8
Move 11.1%
14 Aug 10:03
Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 5.6%
17 Aug 10:02
Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 4.2%
18 Aug 10:06
Bearish
Pressure -72
Move 4.0%
19 Aug 10:05
Bearish
Pressure -67
Move 3.9%
20 Aug 10:11
Bearish
Pressure -41
Move 2.8%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 31
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 55
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 63
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 9
Puts · V 0 · OI 17
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts186
Avg IV0.62
Put-call0.77
Expiry25 Sep 2026
Contracts204
Avg IV0.55
Put-call2.63
Expiry2 Oct 2026
Contracts152
Avg IV0.53
Put-call2.68
Expiry9 Oct 2026
Contracts128
Avg IV0.53
Put-call1.13
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.53
Put-call2.17
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.61
Put IV0.60
Skew-0.01
25 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.54
Skew-
2 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.53
Put IV0.53
Skew-
9 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.52
Skew-0.02
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.53
Skew-0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractVLO260918C00340000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike340.00
Volume755
OI1124
IV1.18
ContractVLO261120C00410000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike410.00
Volume723
OI-
IV0.53
ContractVLO260918C00330000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike330.00
Volume491
OI1453
IV1.38
ContractVLO270319C00560000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike560.00
Volume490
OI4
IV0.52
ContractVLO261016P00350000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike350.00
Volume453
OI726
IV0.53
ContractVLO260918P00380000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike380.00
Volume404
OI574
IV0.62
ContractVLO260918C00400000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike400.00
Volume392
OI998
IV0.62
ContractVLO260925P00370000
SidePut
Expiry25 Sep 2026
Strike370.00
Volume299
OI82
IV0.56
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) adds 5.2% as 12-week gain reaches 43.3%9 Sep 2026 03:02
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) stretches 12-week advance to 43.3%7 Sep 2026 00:45
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) surges 14.5% in latest weekly screen20 Aug 2026 21:00
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) extends 12-week climb to 38.4%19 Aug 2026 11:15
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) adds 14.5% as volume trails its average18 Aug 2026 16:30
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) adds to a 30.4% 12-week advance3 Aug 2026 22:59
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.