Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
VLO options intelligence
Valero Energy Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
41
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 13:28 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
VLO currently carries mixed options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
5.1%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.42
Put-side skew
Trend fit
74
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+3.8%
RS 41.6
Expected move
5.1%
Put-call volume
1.42
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.46
Max pain
292.50
Underlying
312.90
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
1522
Research Brief
VLO has a mixed chain read with 41/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 297.00–328.80; The largest call open-interest concentration is 310.00; the largest put concentration is 325.00. The most active strike by current volume is 320.00.
Priced range297.00–328.80
Call concentration310.00
Put concentration325.00
Max pain reference292.50
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 297.00 to 328.80. Max pain at 292.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
297.00312.90 ± 15.90328.80
Confirmation level
A close beyond 328.80 or below 297.00 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 41/100
Pressure is 17/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure17 × 42%
+6.9
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement74 × 26%
+19.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility53 × 10%
+5.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 310.00; the largest put concentration is 325.00. The most active strike by current volume is 320.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
122
230.00-26.5%
0
68
270.00-13.7%
2
65
280.00-10.5%
19
15
285.00-8.9%
390
31
290.00-7.3%
27
84
300.00-4.1%
162
20
305.00-2.5%
573
6
310.00-0.9%
1182
56
315.000.7%
453
1
317.501.5%
320
0
320.002.3%
237
146
325.003.9%
893
0
327.504.7%
709
0
330.005.5%
211
1
350.0011.9%
244
1
360.0015.1%
343
0
380.0021.4%
143
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.46
7 Aug
7d
0.46
14 Aug
14d
0.44
21 Aug
21d
0.44
28 Aug
28d
0.44
4 Sep
35d
0.43
11 Sep
42d
0.44
18 Sep
49d
0.44
18 Dec
140d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
253
258
265
270
275
283
288
293
300
305
313
318
323
330
335
340
348
353
358
365
375
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1522 / 1522
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3.5M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-17
1W price+3.8%
Call premium65%
Put premium35%
Notional split
C 65% / P 35%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
74/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
puts cluster with 818 contracts traded, $564262 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$564262
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 39 contracts traded, $409315 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$409315
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 58 contracts traded, $359900 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$359900
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 224 contracts traded, $291865 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$291865
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM
calls cluster with 343 contracts traded, $248020 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$248020
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close312.90
1W+3.8%
RS41.6
Fair value+100.8%
Options pressure-17
Speculation41
Volatility53
Trend fit74
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:05
Bullish
Pressure 37
Move 5.1%
30 Jul 12:34
Bullish
Pressure 48
Move 4.4%
31 Jul 03:44
Bearish
Pressure -30
Move 3.6%
31 Jul 13:08
Bearish
Pressure -29
Move 3.6%
31 Jul 13:54
Bearish
Pressure -33
Move 4.0%
31 Jul 22:33
Mixed
Pressure -17
Move 3.4%
2 Aug 12:28
Mixed
Pressure -17
Move 5.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike130.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike135.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike145.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike150.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike155.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike165.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts148
Avg IV0.46
Put-call0.58
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts152
Avg IV0.46
Put-call0.53
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts110
Avg IV0.44
Put-call2.89
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts102
Avg IV0.44
Put-call0.61
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts94
Avg IV0.44
Put-call1.82
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.44
Skew-
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.46
Skew0.03
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.45
Skew0.01
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.44
Skew-
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.44
Skew0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractVLO260821P00250000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike250.00
Volume366
OI230
IV0.52
ContractVLO260918P00300000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike300.00
Volume363
OI378
IV0.44
ContractVLO260918P00240000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike240.00
Volume151
OI862
IV0.46
ContractVLO260807C00320000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike320.00
Volume139
OI237
IV0.46
ContractVLO260807P00300000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike300.00
Volume131
OI84
IV0.44
ContractVLO260807P00290000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike290.00
Volume110
OI31
IV0.46
ContractVLO260807C00310000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike310.00
Volume96
OI1182
IV0.46
ContractVLO260821P00260000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike260.00
Volume92
OI470
IV0.47
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.