VLO NYSE Week ended 18 Sep 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Valero Energy Corporation · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

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Latest close 413.28 USD
5.9% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 49.3% above the Trend Line and sits at 98.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 5.9%, after a 18.5% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is mixed with 38/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 61/100. Near-term considerations: price is close to its 52-week high; earnings are due in 32d.

Setup score 80 out of 100
Latest Close 413.28 USD 18 Sep 2026
1W Return 5.9% latest completed week
4W Return 18.5% short-term follow-through
12W Return 60.0% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 100.0% 52 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.7x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 65-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • 21 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
What to watch next
  • Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 5.9% Latest completed week; four-week move 18.5%. Indicator stack 100/79 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Mixed 38/100 conviction; expected move 4.7%. News sentiment 61/100 95 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 32d Next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 49.3% above the Trend Line and sits at 98.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 5.9%, after a 18.5% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.7x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul 7 Aug 14 Aug 21 Aug 28 Aug 4 Sep 11 Sep 18 Sep
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.9912-week average 0.98

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure10/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.99Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers2121 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 21 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 18.5% over four weeks, 60.0% over 12 weeks, and 158.7% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 65 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W5.9%
4W18.5%
12W60.0%
26W73.2%
52W158.7%
Active trend streak65 weeks
Active weeks in one year52
Trend breadth100.0%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.54Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change20.9%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership65.30Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change35.5%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 11 Sep 2026 Financial statements through 30 Jun 2026 Field coverage 100% Model confidence 100%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength96/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 5; rank 1 is best.
Value82/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 19; rank 1 is best.
Quality80/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 21; rank 1 is best.
Momentum98/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 3; rank 1 is best.
Growth90/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 11; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework79/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
15.6x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
0.8x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
9.0x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
8.5%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
11.3%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
7.5%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
7.6%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
27.2%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
7.4%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
844.0%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
202.9%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
6/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
1.2%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
4.3%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
5.5%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
0.3x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningMixed

VLO shows mixed options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.97, expected move of 4.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction38/100
Expected move4.7%
Put/call volume0.97
Pressure-3
Speculation42
Volatility62
Trend agreement81
Open options detail
Insider activity12 / 8

12 acquisitions and 8 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment61/100

Weighted news tone is positive across 95 relevant articles.

43 positive · 46 neutral · 6 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings32dNext report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move4.7%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-0.8%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.9%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher17 of 269 weeks finished lower.
Best week+14.5%Week of 14 Aug.
Worst week-8.6%Week of 19 Jun.
Latest week+5.9%Week of 18 Sep.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains12
Modest gains5
Flat weeks0
Modest losses5
Sharp losses4
Recent vol4.9%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol5.1%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split32/20Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew5.1% / -3.0%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape79/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 79/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis80/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 10/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 0.99; 21 reversal markers Factors88/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 11 SVQF79/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 213.0 of 1017 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options55/100

VLO shows mixed options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.97, expected move of 4.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 4.7% Sentiment61/100

Weighted news tone is positive across 95 relevant articles.

Valero Energy Corporation Elects Matt Audette to its Board of Directors Insiders12 / 8

12 acquisitions and 8 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings32d

Next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.

 Research flow6 items

3 recent research articles and 3 Market Watch posts are available.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
18 Sep 2026413.28 USD5.9%276.89 USD166.18 USD1.5465.3024.5MOn
11 Sep 2026390.42 USD5.3%269.77 USD164.39 USD1.3958.8112.2MOn
4 Sep 2026370.72 USD5.2%263.40 USD162.74 USD1.3952.1414.5MOn
28 Aug 2026352.36 USD1.0%257.76 USD161.20 USD1.2546.919.7MOn
21 Aug 2026348.86 USD2.1%252.00 USD159.74 USD1.2848.2010.4MOn
14 Aug 2026341.67 USD14.5%246.54 USD158.29 USD1.2845.2712.5MOn
7 Aug 2026298.31 USD-4.7%241.20 USD156.89 USD1.2728.9016.4MOn
31 Jul 2026312.90 USD3.8%237.36 USD155.80 USD1.0741.5711.9MOn
24 Jul 2026301.34 USD-2.3%232.38 USD154.54 USD0.6839.7112.9MOn
17 Jul 2026308.47 USD10.3%227.74 USD153.37 USD0.3943.9616.9MOn
10 Jul 2026279.62 USD4.8%222.82 USD152.11 USD-0.1430.0912.3MOn
3 Jul 2026266.74 USD3.2%219.05 USD150.99 USD-0.2326.8910.5MOn
26 Jun 2026258.38 USD9.3%215.90 USD149.95 USD-0.1926.7121.4MOn
19 Jun 2026236.30 USD-8.6%213.11 USD148.98 USD-0.2914.2116.2MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.

Evidence context