Ticker Options Intelligence

CBSH options intelligence

Commerce Bancshares Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 30 Market data through 11 Aug 2026 Checked 12 Aug 2026 14:24 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

CBSH currently carries mixed options pressure with a 30/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 5.4%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call -

Balanced tape

Trend fit 81

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -0.3%

RS -3.1

Expected move 5.4%
Put-call volume -
Volume / OI -
Reference IV 0.32
Max pain 55.00
Underlying 59.08
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 88

Research Brief

CBSH has a mixed chain read with 30/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 55.88–62.28; The largest call open-interest concentration is 55.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00.

Priced range55.88–62.28
Call concentration55.00
Put concentration30.00
Max pain reference55.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 55.88 to 62.28. Max pain at 55.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
55.8859.08 ± 3.2062.28
Confirmation level

A close beyond 62.28 or below 55.88 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 30/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 10/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure10 × 42%
+4.3

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation0 × 22%
+0.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement81 × 26%
+20.9

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility44 × 10%
+4.4

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score29.6Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 55.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
30
30.00-49.2%
0
2
35.00-40.8%
0
1
40.00-32.3%
0
0
45.00-23.8%
0
24
50.00-15.4%
0
2
55.00-6.9%
127
0
60.001.6%
6
0
65.0010.0%
14
0
70.0018.5%
0
0
75.0026.9%
0
0
80.0035.4%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 88% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$68,549Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak60.00+$35,640
Negative peak50.00-$541
Nearest balance50.11Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
25.00-57.7%
-$3
30.00-49.2%
-$48
35.00-40.8%
-$5
40.00-32.3%
+$69
50.00-15.4%
-$541
55.00-6.9%
+$24,974
60.001.6%
+$35,640
65.0010.0%
+$8,463
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.57× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.32 21 Aug 10d
0.25 18 Sep 38d
0.23 20 Nov 101d
0.20 19 Feb 192d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

50
55
60
65
70
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
11 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
88 / 88
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Likely noise

30/100
Primary intent Likely noise

Visible options activity is too thin or mixed to support a strong intent classification.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Likely noise matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $0 of estimated gross traded notional, no dominant cluster, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+10
1W price-0.3%
Call premium0%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 0% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 81/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters No dominant cluster

No high-conviction option cluster is visible in this snapshot.

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

60

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 10 completed sessions

Volume rank40th
Volume/OI rank40th
IV rank100th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close59.08
1W-0.3%
RS-3.1
Fair value+13.6%
Options pressure10
Speculation0
Volatility44
Trend fit81

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 5.4% elevated
30d avg 5.2% · 10 sessions 80th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
IV 0.32 elevated
30d avg 0.26 · 10 sessions 100th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Put-call - history building
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 near normal
30d avg 0.08 · 10 sessions 40th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:32 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 6.4%
30 Jul 10:30 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 5.4%
30 Jul 15:07 Bullish
Pressure 28
Move 17.0%
30 Jul 16:08 Bullish
Pressure 28
Move 17.0%
31 Jul 11:59 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 5.4%
3 Aug 09:07 Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 5.4%
3 Aug 14:23 Volatility
Pressure 94
Move 17.0%
4 Aug 10:40 Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 5.0%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 30
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 24
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 127
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 14
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.32
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.25
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.23
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts22
Avg IV0.20
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.05
Put IV0.20
Skew0.15
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.10
Skew-0.28
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.07
Put IV0.38
Skew0.30
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.04
Put IV0.29
Skew0.24

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCBSH261120C00065000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike65.00
Volume-
OI136
IV0.07
ContractCBSH260821C00055000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike55.00
Volume-
OI127
IV0.40
ContractCBSH260918C00060000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike60.00
Volume-
OI125
IV0.39
ContractCBSH270219C00060000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike60.00
Volume-
OI35
IV0.22
ContractCBSH260821P00030000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI30
IV1.50
ContractCBSH260821P00050000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI24
IV0.41
ContractCBSH261120C00060000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike60.00
Volume-
OI19
IV0.25
ContractCBSH270219C00065000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike65.00
Volume-
OI16
IV0.04

Evidence context