Ticker Options Intelligence

GFI options intelligence

Gold Fields Ltd ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 34 Market data through 11 Aug 2026 Checked 12 Aug 2026 13:50 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

GFI currently carries bullish options pressure with a 34/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 7.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 7.0%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.03

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.68

Call-side skew

Trend fit 41

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +25.9%

RS -11.9

Expected move 7.0%
Put-call volume 0.68
Volume / OI 0.03
Reference IV 0.60
Max pain 35.00
Underlying 40.82
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 136

Research Brief

GFI has a bullish chain read with 34/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 37.97–43.67; The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 45.00.

Priced range37.97–43.67
Call concentration35.00
Put concentration30.00
Max pain reference35.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 37.97 to 43.67. Max pain at 35.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
37.9740.82 ± 2.8543.67
Confirmation level

A close beyond 43.67 or below 37.97 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 34/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 18/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure18 × 42%
+7.7

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+8.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement41 × 26%
+10.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility70 × 10%
+7.0

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score34.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 45.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
20.00-51.0%
0
2
22.50-44.9%
0
121
25.00-38.8%
1
3030
30.00-26.5%
218
2299
35.00-14.3%
8839
341
40.00-2.0%
4373
0
45.0010.2%
755
5
50.0022.5%
42
0
55.0034.7%
0
0
60.0047.0%
22
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 94% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$953,711Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak40.00+$665,262
Negative peak55.00-$195,797
Nearest balance31.48Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
20.00-51.0%
-$3,284
22.50-44.9%
-$53
25.00-38.8%
-$8,367
30.00-26.5%
-$113,540
35.00-14.3%
+$270,248
40.00-2.0%
+$665,262
45.0010.2%
+$359,499
50.0022.5%
+$44,600
55.0034.7%
-$195,797
60.0047.0%
-$27,931
65.0059.2%
-$28,705
70.0071.5%
-$8,221
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.16× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.60 21 Aug 10d
0.56 18 Sep 38d
0.52 16 Oct 66d
0.54 15 Jan 157d
0.52 19 Mar 220d
0.52 21 Jan 528d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

35
40
45
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
11 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
136 / 136
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

75/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.0M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+18
1W price+25.9%
Call premium15%
Put premium85%
Notional split C 15% / P 85% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.03 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 41/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 21 Aug Matched earnings event is 8 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 599 contracts traded, $1.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 82% of visible notional.
$1.6M
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 504 contracts traded, $85,192 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$85,192
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 39 contracts traded, $61,975 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$61,975
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 61 contracts traded, $57,625 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$57,625
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM calls cluster with 109 contracts traded, $37,060 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$37,060

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

40

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 10 completed sessions

Volume rank30th
Volume/OI rank10th
IV rank80th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close40.82
1W+25.9%
RS-11.9
Fair value+68.4%
Options pressure18
Speculation41
Volatility70
Trend fit41

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 7.0% muted
30d avg 13.8% · 10 sessions 0th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
IV 0.60 elevated
30d avg 0.54 · 10 sessions 80th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.68 muted
30d avg 3.55 · 10 sessions 20th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.03 muted
30d avg 0.12 · 10 sessions 10th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:12 Volatility
Pressure -25
Move 11.3%
30 Jul 10:09 Mixed
Pressure -13
Move 12.7%
31 Jul 10:04 Volatility
Pressure -90
Move 10.0%
31 Jul 14:19 Bullish
Pressure 30
Move 12.5%
31 Jul 15:59 Bullish
Pressure 29
Move 12.2%
31 Jul 16:33 Bullish
Pressure 21
Move 12.2%
2 Aug 18:39 Volatility
Pressure -72
Move 11.4%
4 Aug 08:09 Volatility
Pressure -78
Move 15.8%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 121
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 218
Puts · V 27 · OI 3030
Strike35.00
Calls · V 29 · OI 8839
Puts · V 17 · OI 2299
Strike40.00
Calls · V 23 · OI 4373
Puts · V 29 · OI 341
Strike45.00
Calls · V 82 · OI 755
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 42
Puts · V 0 · OI 5

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.60
Put-call0.53
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.56
Put-call0.19
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.52
Put-call0.97
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts24
Avg IV0.54
Put-call0.25
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts22
Avg IV0.52
Put-call4.50

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.56
Skew0.01
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.61
Skew0.07
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.58
Skew0.06
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.57
Skew0.07
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.58
Skew0.08

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractGFI261016C00045000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike45.00
Volume489
OI134
IV0.49
ContractGFI261016P00070000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike70.00
Volume455
OI501
IV0.84
ContractGFI260918C00045000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike45.00
Volume262
OI3353
IV0.54
ContractGFI261016C00040000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike40.00
Volume109
OI542
IV0.46
ContractGFI260821C00045000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike45.00
Volume82
OI755
IV0.55
ContractGFI261016P00055000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike55.00
Volume75
OI5708
IV0.60
ContractGFI261016P00065000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike65.00
Volume67
OI1254
IV0.74
ContractGFI270115C00035000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike35.00
Volume55
OI386
IV0.49

Evidence context