Ticker Options Intelligence

ARLP options intelligence

Alliance Resource Partners LP options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 41 Market data through 12 Aug 2026 Checked 13 Aug 2026 13:05 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

ARLP currently carries bullish options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 3.9%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.21

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -2.8%

RS -10.2

Expected move 3.9%
Put-call volume 0.21
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.56
Max pain 25.00
Underlying 24.62
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 88

Research Brief

ARLP has a bullish chain read with 41/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 23.67–25.57; The largest call open-interest concentration is 25.00; the largest put concentration is 22.50. The most active strike by current volume is 25.00.

Priced range23.67–25.57
Call concentration25.00
Put concentration22.50
Max pain reference25.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 23.67 to 25.57. Max pain at 25.00 sits inside that range, 1.5% above spot.

Spot Max pain
23.6724.62 ± 0.9525.57
Confirmation level

A close beyond 25.57 or below 23.67 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 41/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 74/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure74 × 42%
+31.1

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation19 × 22%
+4.1

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility55 × 10%
+5.5

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score40.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 25.00; the largest put concentration is 22.50. The most active strike by current volume is 25.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
12.50-49.2%
0
0
15.00-39.1%
0
0
17.50-28.9%
0
17
20.00-18.8%
0
391
22.50-8.6%
0
141
25.001.5%
927
0
27.5011.7%
750
0
30.0021.9%
4
0
32.5032.0%
0
0
35.0042.2%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 98% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$1.1MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak27.50+$692,193
Negative peak22.50-$58,446
Nearest balance22.90Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
12.50-49.2%
+$25
15.00-39.1%
+$581
17.50-28.9%
-$594
20.00-18.8%
-$5,324
22.50-8.6%
-$58,446
25.001.5%
+$305,023
27.5011.7%
+$692,193
30.0021.9%
+$128,511
32.5032.0%
+$4,781
35.0042.2%
+$1,058
37.5052.3%
+$562
40.0062.5%
+$1,361
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.26× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.56 21 Aug 9d
0.26 18 Sep 37d
0.29 18 Dec 128d
0.25 19 Mar 219d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

20
23
25
28
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
12 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
88 / 88
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Directional flow, confirmation needed

30/100
Primary intent Directional flow, confirmation needed

There is useful activity, but aggregate chain data does not isolate participant intent.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Directional flow, confirmation needed matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $137,022 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+74
1W price-2.8%
Call premium97%
Put premium3%
Notional split C 97% / P 3% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 109 contracts traded, $124,820 estimated gross traded notional, and 91% of visible notional.
$124,820
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 49 contracts traded, $3,842 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$3,842
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 15 contracts traded, $2,400 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$2,400
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 20 contracts traded, $2,250 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$2,250
Puts · 91+ days · ATM puts cluster with 10 contracts traded, $1,450 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$1,450

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

33

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 10 completed sessions

Volume rank0th
Volume/OI rank0th
IV rank100th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close24.62
1W-2.8%
RS-10.2
Fair value+15.6%
Options pressure74
Speculation19
Volatility55
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 3.9% muted
30d avg 5.3% · 10 sessions 10th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
IV 0.56 elevated
30d avg 0.35 · 10 sessions 100th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.21 near normal
30d avg 0.25 · 10 sessions 60th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 muted
30d avg 0.03 · 10 sessions 0th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:53 Bullish
Pressure 63
Move 7.1%
30 Jul 10:43 Bullish
Pressure 25
Move 6.3%
31 Jul 09:37 Bullish
Pressure 42
Move 7.2%
31 Jul 17:15 Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 5.5%
3 Aug 12:44 Bullish
Pressure 92
Move 5.3%
4 Aug 11:04 Bullish
Pressure 92
Move 5.2%
4 Aug 23:31 Bullish
Pressure 80
Move 4.4%
5 Aug 00:08 Bullish
Pressure 91
Move 4.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 17
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 391
Strike25.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 927
Puts · V 3 · OI 141
Strike27.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 750
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.56
Put-call0.60
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.38
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.29
Put-call0.09
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV0.25
Put-call0.33

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.35
Skew0.06
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.17
Skew-0.07
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.32
Skew0.08
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.33
Skew0.09

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractARLP261218C00012500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike12.50
Volume71
OI31
IV0.01
ContractARLP270319C00027500
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike27.50
Volume23
OI771
IV0.22
ContractARLP270319P00022500
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike22.50
Volume20
OI87
IV0.33
ContractARLP261218C00015000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike15.00
Volume16
OI-
IV0.52
ContractARLP270319C00025000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike25.00
Volume15
OI398
IV0.16
ContractARLP261218C00027500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike27.50
Volume13
OI3095
IV0.24
ContractARLP270319C00015000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike15.00
Volume12
OI73
IV0.65
ContractARLP260918C00025000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume11
OI372
IV0.20

Evidence context