Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
CP options intelligence
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
43
Market data through 13 Aug 2026
Checked 13 Aug 2026 21:39 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
CP currently carries bullish options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.06.
Expected move
2.9%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.06
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.53
Call-side skew
Trend fit
53
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+3.1%
RS 2.5
Expected move
2.9%
Put-call volume
0.53
Volume / OI
0.06
Reference IV
0.29
Max pain
90.00
Underlying
91.62
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
216
Research Brief
CP has a bullish chain read with 43/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 88.95–94.29; The largest call open-interest concentration is 95.00; the largest put concentration is 85.00. The most active strike by current volume is 80.00.
Priced range88.95–94.29
Call concentration95.00
Put concentration85.00
Max pain reference90.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 88.95 to 94.29. Max pain at 90.00 sits inside that range, 1.8% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
88.9591.62 ± 2.6794.29
Confirmation level
A close beyond 94.29 or below 88.95 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 43/100
Pressure is 39/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure39 × 42%
+16.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement53 × 26%
+13.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility32 × 10%
+3.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 95.00; the largest put concentration is 85.00. The most active strike by current volume is 80.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
2
47.50-48.2%
0
4
50.00-45.4%
0
6
65.00-29.1%
0
3
70.00-23.6%
4
8
75.00-18.1%
10
11
77.50-15.4%
0
19
80.00-12.7%
8
26
82.50-10.0%
2
637
85.00-7.2%
63
267
87.50-4.5%
25
92
90.00-1.8%
114
146
92.501.0%
300
0
95.003.7%
396
0
97.506.4%
84
0
100.009.1%
76
0
105.0014.6%
6
0
115.0025.5%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$5.6MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak95.00+$2.2M
Negative peak85.00-$193,366
Nearest balance87.73Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
60.00-34.5%
+$57,137
62.50-31.8%
-$854
65.00-29.1%
-$6,196
67.50-26.3%
-$21,730
70.00-23.6%
-$16,287
72.50-20.9%
-$31,732
75.00-18.1%
+$271,461
77.50-15.4%
-$69,934
80.00-12.7%
+$33,672
82.50-10.0%
+$8,967
85.00-7.2%
-$193,366
87.50-4.5%
-$165,845
90.00-1.8%
+$1.7M
92.501.0%
+$1.3M
95.003.7%
+$2.2M
97.506.4%
+$304,129
100.009.1%
+$242,198
105.0014.6%
+$8,868
110.0020.1%
+$40,220
115.0025.5%
+$4,143
120.0031.0%
+$1,823
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.29
21 Aug
8d
0.23
18 Sep
36d
0.26
16 Oct
64d
0.24
20 Nov
99d
0.26
18 Dec
127d
0.26
15 Jan
155d
0.28
19 Mar
218d
0.30
17 Dec
491d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
75
78
80
83
85
88
90
93
95
98
100
105
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 13 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 216 / 216
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.5M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+39
1W price+3.1%
Call premium96%
Put premium4%
Notional split
C 96% / P 4%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.06
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
53/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 541 contracts traded, $2.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 85% of visible notional.
$2.1M
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 41 contracts traded, $74,180 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$74,180
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 231 contracts traded, $60,772 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$60,772
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 397 contracts traded, $50,421 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$50,421
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 356 contracts traded, $45,270 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$45,270
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Above normal
Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.
Baseline: 12 completed sessions
Volume rank67th
Volume/OI rank67th
IV rank100th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close91.62
1W+3.1%
RS2.5
Fair value+17.2%
Options pressure39
Speculation41
Volatility32
Trend fit53
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 4.2% · 12 sessions
17th
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.22 · 12 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.46 · 12 sessions
75th
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.05 · 12 sessions
67th
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:04
Bullish
Pressure 85
Move 5.1%
30 Jul 10:03
Bullish
Pressure 40
Move 5.7%
30 Jul 17:09
Bullish
Pressure 47
Move 6.0%
2 Aug 18:10
Mixed
Pressure -6
Move 4.5%
3 Aug 23:17
Mixed
Pressure -10
Move 4.0%
5 Aug 10:00
Bullish
Pressure 97
Move 3.9%
6 Aug 10:01
Bullish
Pressure 88
Move 4.0%
7 Aug 13:34
Bullish
Pressure 49
Move 4.0%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike47.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 4
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Strike70.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 4
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Strike75.00
Calls · V 10 · OI 10
Puts · V 4 · OI 8
Strike77.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 11
Strike80.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 8
Puts · V 13 · OI 19
Strike82.50
Calls · V 4 · OI 2
Puts · V 4 · OI 26
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts27
Avg IV0.29
Put-call0.66
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.23
Put-call0.61
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.27
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts23
Avg IV0.24
Put-call1.65
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts28
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.39
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.38
Skew0.16
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.25
Skew0.03
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.21
Skew-0.09
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.24
Skew-0.03
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.26
Skew-0.02
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCP261120C00082500
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike82.50
Volume-
OI131
IV0.34
ContractCP270115P00095000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike95.00
Volume-
OI70
IV0.25
ContractCP260918P00097500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike97.50
Volume-
OI50
IV0.29
ContractCP271217P00062500
SidePut
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike62.50
Volume-
OI20
IV0.40
ContractCP261120C00115000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike115.00
Volume-
OI16
IV0.39
ContractCP261120P00080000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike80.00
Volume-
OI8
IV0.43
ContractCP270115P00097500
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike97.50
Volume-
OI6
IV0.20
ContractCP260821P00065000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike65.00
Volume-
OI6
IV0.95
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Earnings
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Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.