Ticker Options Intelligence

HZO options intelligence

MarineMax Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 47 Market data through 12 Aug 2026 Checked 13 Aug 2026 13:45 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

HZO currently carries volatility options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 14.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 14.6%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.03

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.15

Call-side skew

Trend fit 29

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +3.5%

RS 11.4

Expected move 14.6%
Put-call volume 0.15
Volume / OI 0.03
Reference IV 0.93
Max pain 50.00
Underlying 35.68
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 114

Research Brief

HZO has a volatility chain read with 47/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 30.47–40.89; The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 45.00.

Priced range30.47–40.89
Call concentration35.00
Put concentration30.00
Max pain reference50.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 30.47 to 40.89. Max pain at 50.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
30.4735.68 ± 5.2140.89
Confirmation level

A close beyond 40.89 or below 30.47 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 47/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 66/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure66 × 42%
+27.9

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation9 × 22%
+1.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement29 × 26%
+7.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score47.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 45.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
17.50-51.0%
0
5
20.00-43.9%
0
25
22.50-36.9%
0
11
25.00-29.9%
0
762
30.00-15.9%
4
12
35.00-1.9%
199
5
40.0012.1%
73
120
45.0026.1%
26
344
50.0040.1%
12
2
55.0054.1%
61
1
60.0068.2%
0
0
65.0082.2%
0
0
70.0096.2%
1
0
75.00110.2%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Balanced gamma proxy

Reported Greeks · 94% coverage

Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.

Net profile-$6,299Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak55.00+$14,000
Negative peak50.00-$27,337
Nearest balance30.74Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
15.00-58.0%
+$2
20.00-43.9%
-$2
22.50-36.9%
-$13
25.00-29.9%
-$9
30.00-15.9%
-$524
35.00-1.9%
+$3,025
40.0012.1%
+$3,104
45.0026.1%
+$1,405
50.0040.1%
-$27,337
55.0054.1%
+$14,000
60.0068.2%
+$35
65.0082.2%
+$10
70.0096.2%
+$3
75.00110.2%
+$2
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

3.10× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.93 21 Aug 9d
0.54 18 Sep 37d
0.47 16 Oct 65d
0.30 15 Jan 156d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

30
35
40
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
12 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
114 / 114
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

92/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $75,980 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+66
1W price+3.5%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 100% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.03 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 29/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 51 contracts traded, $44,115 estimated gross traded notional, and 58% of visible notional.
$44,115
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 24 contracts traded, $16,035 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$16,035
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM calls cluster with 15 contracts traded, $12,128 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$12,128
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $3,440 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$3,440
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 5 contracts traded, $150 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$150

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

53

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 10 completed sessions

Volume rank40th
Volume/OI rank20th
IV rank100th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close35.68
1W+3.5%
RS11.4
Fair value+22.7%
Options pressure66
Speculation9
Volatility96
Trend fit29

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 14.6% elevated
30d avg 14.2% · 10 sessions 90th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
IV 0.93 elevated
30d avg 0.58 · 10 sessions 100th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.15 history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.03 muted
30d avg 0.08 · 10 sessions 20th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:19 Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 10.7%
30 Jul 12:27 Bearish
Pressure -50
Move 11.5%
30 Jul 17:22 Bullish
Pressure 19
Move 13.1%
1 Aug 23:12 Volatility
Pressure -61
Move 8.8%
3 Aug 17:59 Bearish
Pressure -29
Move 9.4%
5 Aug 10:24 Volatility
Pressure -79
Move 12.0%
6 Aug 10:40 Volatility
Pressure -64
Move 8.4%
7 Aug 12:05 Bullish
Pressure 22
Move 10.1%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 25
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 762
Strike35.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 199
Puts · V 0 · OI 12
Strike40.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 73
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike45.00
Calls · V 21 · OI 26
Puts · V 0 · OI 120

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts28
Avg IV0.93
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts28
Avg IV0.54
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV0.47
Put-call0.18
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts28
Avg IV0.30
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.16
Put IV0.98
Skew0.82
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.07
Put IV0.48
Skew0.41
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.05
Put IV0.37
Skew0.31
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.03
Put IV0.24
Skew0.20

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractHZO261016C00045000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike45.00
Volume51
OI69
IV0.47
ContractHZO260821C00045000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike45.00
Volume21
OI26
IV0.01
ContractHZO261016P00050000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike50.00
Volume9
OI49
IV0.09
ContractHZO260918C00040000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike40.00
Volume8
OI8
IV0.60
ContractHZO260918C00050000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike50.00
Volume7
OI51
IV0.23
ContractHZO270115P00050000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike50.00
Volume5
OI29
IV0.04
ContractHZO260821C00035000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume2
OI199
IV1.16
ContractHZO260821C00055000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike55.00
Volume2
OI61
IV0.16

Evidence context