Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
IBM options intelligence
International Business Machines options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
35
Market data through 12 Aug 2026
Checked 12 Aug 2026 20:56 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
IBM currently carries bullish options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.09.
Expected move
2.3%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.09
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.38
Call-side skew
Trend fit
10
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+6.1%
RS -20.6
Expected move
2.3%
Put-call volume
0.38
Volume / OI
0.09
Reference IV
0.33
Max pain
230.00
Underlying
237.28
Nearest expiry
14 Aug 2026
Contracts
1846
Research Brief
IBM has a bullish chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 231.71–242.85; The largest call open-interest concentration is 250.00; the largest put concentration is 180.00. The most active strike by current volume is 250.00.
Priced range231.71–242.85
Call concentration250.00
Put concentration180.00
Max pain reference230.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 231.71 to 242.85. Max pain at 230.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
231.71237.28 ± 5.57242.85
Confirmation level
A close beyond 242.85 or below 231.71 at the 14 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 35/100
Pressure is 48/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure48 × 42%
+20.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.3
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement10 × 26%
+2.6
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility32 × 10%
+3.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 250.00; the largest put concentration is 180.00. The most active strike by current volume is 250.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
2657
175.00-26.2%
2
2734
180.00-24.1%
3
1801
210.00-11.5%
33
1257
215.00-9.4%
26
807
225.00-5.2%
47
710
230.00-3.1%
902
411
235.00-1.0%
1704
259
237.500.1%
410
116
240.001.1%
2291
0
242.502.2%
2201
40
245.003.3%
1838
5
247.504.3%
892
47
250.005.4%
5488
25
255.007.5%
1274
0
270.0013.8%
1070
0
280.0018.0%
1292
0
300.0026.4%
1205
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$70.0MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak240.00+$16.1M
Negative peak200.00-$5.1M
Nearest balance222.99Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
212.50-10.4%
-$211,385
215.00-9.4%
-$977,749
217.50-8.3%
-$424,265
220.00-7.3%
-$2.6M
222.50-6.2%
-$350,509
225.00-5.2%
+$1.4M
227.50-4.1%
+$171,734
230.00-3.1%
+$4.4M
232.50-2.0%
+$813,821
235.00-1.0%
+$8.4M
237.500.1%
+$1.2M
240.001.1%
+$16.1M
242.502.2%
+$5.9M
245.003.3%
+$7.3M
247.504.3%
+$770,121
250.005.4%
+$13.4M
252.506.4%
+$209,290
255.007.5%
+$2.4M
257.508.5%
+$14,115
260.009.6%
+$6.8M
262.5010.6%
+$8,407
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.33
14 Aug
2d
0.33
21 Aug
9d
0.36
28 Aug
16d
0.35
4 Sep
23d
0.36
11 Sep
30d
0.35
18 Sep
37d
0.37
25 Sep
44d
0.37
16 Oct
65d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
190
195
198
203
208
210
215
220
225
228
233
238
240
245
250
255
258
263
268
270
280
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 6 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 100% of the time.
Directional follow-through100%
Moves contained by pricing17%
Average expiry move5.8%
6 Aug
Bullish · 36
6.1% through expiry
5.1% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Bullish · 38
6.1% through expiry
6.7% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Bullish · 38
6.1% through expiry
5.3% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Bullish · 40
6.1% through expiry
4.1% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Bullish · 34
6.1% through expiry
4.3% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Bullish · 35
4.4% through expiry
3.5% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 12 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1846 / 1846
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Short-dated OTM call concentration
Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $147.3M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+48
1W price+6.1%
Call premium74%
Put premium26%
Notional split
C 74% / P 26%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.09
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
10/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 9076 contracts traded, $36.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 25% of visible notional.
$36.6M
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 3101 contracts traded, $31.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$31.4M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 10172 contracts traded, $21.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$21.4M
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 2143 contracts traded, $20.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$20.1M
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 1638 contracts traded, $11.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$11.3M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 11 completed sessions
Volume rank55th
Volume/OI rank55th
IV rank9th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close237.28
1W+6.1%
RS-20.6
Fair value+8.8%
Options pressure48
Speculation42
Volatility32
Trend fit10
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 4.9% · 11 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.43 · 11 sessions
9th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.39 · 11 sessions
55th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.10 · 11 sessions
55th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
5 Aug 13:40
Bullish
Pressure 53
Move 5.5%
5 Aug 15:00
Bullish
Pressure 39
Move 5.8%
5 Aug 16:30
Bullish
Pressure 32
Move 5.9%
5 Aug 17:50
Bullish
Pressure 43
Move 7.3%
5 Aug 19:20
Bullish
Pressure 47
Move 6.7%
6 Aug 15:10
Bullish
Pressure 47
Move 6.8%
6 Aug 16:40
Bullish
Pressure 43
Move 4.8%
6 Aug 18:10
Bullish
Pressure 42
Move 4.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike115.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 20 · OI 62
Strike120.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 11 · OI 2
Strike125.00
Calls · V 42 · OI 24
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 33
Strike145.00
Calls · V 20 · OI 34
Puts · V 2 · OI 51
Strike150.00
Calls · V 7 · OI 28
Puts · V 20 · OI 30
Strike155.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 31
Puts · V 16 · OI 64
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 65
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts123
Avg IV0.33
Put-call0.32
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts157
Avg IV0.33
Put-call0.26
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts95
Avg IV0.36
Put-call0.31
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts55
Avg IV0.35
Put-call2.56
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV0.36
Put-call1.67
Skew
Call/put IV balance
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.36
Skew0.02
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.32
Skew0.00
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.34
Skew-0.01
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.34
Skew0.00
11 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.34
Skew-0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractIBM260911P00170000
SidePut
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Strike170.00
Volume-
OI39
IV0.72
ContractIBM260904C00305000
SideCall
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike305.00
Volume-
OI35
IV0.60
ContractIBM270319P00360000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike360.00
Volume-
OI23
IV0.40
ContractIBM270617P00325000
SidePut
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike325.00
Volume-
OI16
IV0.39
ContractIBM280616P00290000
SidePut
Expiry16 Jun 2028
Strike290.00
Volume-
OI14
IV0.36
ContractIBM270617P00275000
SidePut
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike275.00
Volume-
OI14
IV0.39
ContractIBM280616C00335000
SideCall
Expiry16 Jun 2028
Strike335.00
Volume-
OI13
IV0.45
ContractIBM270219P00255000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike255.00
Volume-
OI11
IV0.42
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
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Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.