Ticker Options Intelligence

LYG options intelligence

Lloyds Banking Group PLC ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 37 Market data through 14 Aug 2026 Checked 17 Aug 2026 11:02 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

LYG currently carries mixed options pressure with a 37/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 7.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 7.7%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.30

Put-side skew

Trend fit 100

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +0.2%

RS 7.3

Expected move 7.7%
Put-call volume 1.30
Volume / OI 0.00
Reference IV 0.56
Max pain 6.00
Underlying 6.21
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 88

Research Brief

LYG has a mixed chain read with 37/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 5.73–6.69; The largest call open-interest concentration is 6.00; the largest put concentration is 6.00. The most active strike by current volume is 1.00.

Priced range5.73–6.69
Call concentration6.00
Put concentration6.00
Max pain reference6.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 5.73 to 6.69. Max pain at 6.00 sits inside that range, 3.4% below spot.

Spot Max pain
5.736.21 ± 0.486.69
Confirmation level

A close beyond 6.69 or below 5.73 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 37/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 6/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure6 × 42%
+2.4

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation7 × 22%
+1.5

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement100 × 26%
+25.9

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility70 × 10%
+7.0

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score36.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 6.00; the largest put concentration is 6.00. The most active strike by current volume is 1.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
1.00-83.9%
0
10
2.00-67.8%
0
0
3.00-51.7%
0
2
4.00-35.6%
0
0
5.00-19.5%
3
39
6.00-3.4%
635
2
7.0012.7%
518
0
8.0028.8%
0
0
9.0044.9%
0
0
10.0061.0%
0
0
11.0077.1%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported Greeks · 90% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$450,653Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak6.00+$452,240
Negative peak5.00-$18,539
Nearest balance5.04Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
1.00-83.9%
-$0
2.00-67.8%
-$1
3.00-51.7%
-$6
4.00-35.6%
-$574
5.00-19.5%
-$18,539
6.00-3.4%
+$452,240
7.0012.7%
+$16,723
8.0028.8%
+$729
9.0044.9%
-$3
10.0061.0%
+$85
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.63× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.56 21 Aug 7d
0.35 18 Sep 35d
0.34 16 Oct 63d
0.34 15 Jan 154d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

5
6
7
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
14 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
88 / 88
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

68/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1,618 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-6
1W price+0.2%
Call premium69%
Put premium31%
Notional split C 69% / P 31% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 100/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 8 contracts traded, $1,020 estimated gross traded notional, and 63% of visible notional.
$1,020
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 11 contracts traded, $260 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$260
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM puts cluster with 8 contracts traded, $160 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$160
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 12 contracts traded, $90 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$90
Puts · 22-45 days · OTM puts cluster with 7 contracts traded, $88 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$88

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

44

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 13 completed sessions

Volume rank38th
Volume/OI rank31th
IV rank62th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close6.21
1W+0.2%
RS7.3
Fair value+75.2%
Options pressure-6
Speculation7
Volatility70
Trend fit100

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 7.7% near normal
30d avg 6.8% · 13 sessions 77th
90d avg - · 13/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 13/60 sessions -
IV 0.56 near normal
30d avg 0.52 · 13 sessions 62th
90d avg - · 13/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 13/60 sessions -
Put-call 1.30 elevated
30d avg 79.08 · 13 sessions 92th
90d avg - · 13/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 13/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 near normal
30d avg 0.04 · 13 sessions 31th
90d avg - · 13/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 13/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:04 Bullish
Pressure 23
Move 7.9%
30 Jul 10:03 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 13.7%
31 Jul 00:12 Mixed
Pressure -11
Move 8.3%
31 Jul 03:32 Bullish
Pressure 98
Move 8.3%
2 Aug 12:19 Bullish
Pressure 61
Move 6.9%
4 Aug 10:00 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 6.1%
5 Aug 10:03 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 6.1%
6 Aug 10:02 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 6.1%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike1.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 635
Puts · V 0 · OI 39
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 518
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.56
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.35
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.34
Put-call0.40
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV0.34
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.21
Skew-0.31
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.29
Skew0.06
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.31
Skew0.01
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.35
Skew0.04

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractLYG261016C00007000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike7.00
Volume12
OI392
IV0.30
ContractLYG261016P00006000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike6.00
Volume8
OI8177
IV0.31
ContractLYG261016C00005000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike5.00
Volume8
OI120
IV0.38
ContractLYG260918P00006000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike6.00
Volume7
OI13
IV0.29
ContractLYG270115P00005000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike5.00
Volume6
OI2638
IV0.35
ContractLYG270115P00006000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike6.00
Volume5
OI6
IV0.35
ContractLYG261016C00006000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike6.00
Volume-
OI29127
IV0.28
ContractLYG261016P00005000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI1247
IV0.30

Evidence context