Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
TH options intelligence
Target Hospitality Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
50
Market data through 17 Sep 2026
Checked 18 Sep 2026 02:15 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
TH currently carries volatility options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.
Expected move
6.2%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.00
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.19
Call-side skew
Trend fit
38
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+10.1%
RS 58.8
Expected move
6.2%
Put-call volume
0.19
Volume / OI
0.00
Reference IV
1.19
Max pain
18.00
Underlying
19.25
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
300
Research Brief
TH has a volatility chain read with 50/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 18.05–20.45; The largest call open-interest concentration is 18.00; the largest put concentration is 15.00. The most active strike by current volume is 20.00.
Priced range18.05–20.45
Call concentration18.00
Put concentration15.00
Max pain reference18.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 18.05 to 20.45. Max pain at 18.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
18.0519.25 ± 1.2020.45
Confirmation level
A close beyond 20.45 or below 18.05 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 50/100
Pressure is 75/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure75 × 42%
+31.3
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation2 × 22%
+0.5
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement38 × 26%
+9.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility81 × 10%
+8.1
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 18.00; the largest put concentration is 15.00. The most active strike by current volume is 20.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
9.00-53.2%
0
0
10.00-48.1%
0
0
11.00-42.9%
0
0
12.00-37.7%
110
0
13.00-32.5%
25
0
14.00-27.3%
0
2725
15.00-22.1%
1
40
16.00-16.9%
1
328
17.00-11.7%
4
170
18.00-6.5%
321
29
19.00-1.3%
61
0
20.003.9%
75
0
21.009.1%
11
0
22.0014.3%
0
1
23.0019.5%
0
1
24.0024.7%
0
2
25.0029.9%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$160,545Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak25.00+$47,063
Negative peak18.00-$10,573
Nearest balance18.43Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
9.00-53.2%
-$1
10.00-48.1%
+$1,150
11.00-42.9%
-$11
12.00-37.7%
+$2,855
13.00-32.5%
-$173
14.00-27.3%
+$227
15.00-22.1%
-$10,144
16.00-16.9%
+$188
17.00-11.7%
-$4,350
18.00-6.5%
-$10,573
19.00-1.3%
+$14,253
20.003.9%
+$44,232
21.009.1%
+$17,421
22.0014.3%
+$23,652
23.0019.5%
+$18,755
24.0024.7%
+$11
25.0029.9%
+$47,063
26.0035.1%
+$503
27.0040.3%
+$104
28.0045.5%
+$738
29.0050.6%
+$4
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.19
18 Sep
1d
0.51
16 Oct
29d
0.65
20 Nov
64d
0.59
15 Jan
120d
0.60
16 Apr
211d
0.61
17 Dec
456d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 7 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 43% of the time.
Directional follow-through43%
Moves contained by pricing48%
Average expiry move11.5%
17 Sep
Volatility · 50
10.1% through expiry
6.2% priced · v2.0
15 Sep
Bullish · 61
10.1% through expiry
8.1% priced · v2.0
11 Sep
Mixed · 38
10.1% through expiry
8.4% priced · v2.0
9 Sep
Volatility · 49
8.6% through expiry
12.9% priced · v2.0
8 Sep
Volatility · 49
8.6% through expiry
14.9% priced · v2.0
4 Sep
Bearish · 39
8.6% through expiry
12.9% priced · v2.0
2 Sep
Mixed · 33
14.2% through expiry
12.8% priced · v2.0
1 Sep
Volatility · 46
14.2% through expiry
12.9% priced · v2.0
28 Aug
Volatility · 61
14.2% through expiry
12.3% priced · v2.0
24 Aug
Bearish · 43
18.7% through expiry
9.9% priced · v2.0
17 Aug
Bullish · 49
2.4% through expiry
4.9% priced · v2.0
14 Aug
Volatility · 46
8.1% through expiry
14.2% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 17 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 300 / 300
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $46,905 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+75
1W price+10.1%
Call premium71%
Put premium29%
Notional split
C 71% / P 29%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.00
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
38/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 30 contracts traded, $16,605 estimated gross traded notional, and 35% of visible notional.
$16,605
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 21 contracts traded, $12,530 estimated gross traded notional, and 27% of visible notional.
$12,530
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 80 contracts traded, $9,890 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$9,890
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM
calls cluster with 20 contracts traded, $2,950 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$2,950
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM
calls cluster with 6 contracts traded, $1,590 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$1,590
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 22 completed sessions
Volume rank41th
Volume/OI rank36th
IV rank100th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close21.19
1W+10.1%
RS58.8
Fair value+106.9%
Options pressure75
Speculation2
Volatility81
Trend fit38
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 22/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 22/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 22/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 22/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 22/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 22/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 22/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 22/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:04
Volatility
Pressure -74
Move 15.0%
30 Jul 10:52
Volatility
Pressure 86
Move 15.9%
31 Jul 10:34
Bearish
Pressure -60
Move 14.9%
2 Aug 11:26
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 15.6%
4 Aug 10:25
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 15.1%
5 Aug 11:01
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 15.8%
6 Aug 11:05
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 14.5%
10 Aug 10:46
Volatility
Pressure 83
Move 13.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike9.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike11.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 110
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike13.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 25
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike14.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 2725
Strike16.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 40
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV1.19
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.51
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.65
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts58
Avg IV0.59
Put-call-
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Contracts58
Avg IV0.60
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.18
Put IV0.89
Skew0.71
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.59
Put IV0.63
Skew0.04
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.58
Put IV0.98
Skew0.40
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.77
Put IV0.86
Skew0.10
16 Apr 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.67
Put IV0.54
Skew-0.13
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractTH261016C00021000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike21.00
Volume35
OI455
IV0.71
ContractTH271217C00025000
SideCall
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike25.00
Volume27
OI2665
IV0.73
ContractTH261016C00025000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike25.00
Volume21
OI533
IV0.65
ContractTH260918C00020000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike20.00
Volume20
OI75
IV2.48
ContractTH261016C00020000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike20.00
Volume19
OI300
IV0.54
ContractTH271217P00022000
SidePut
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike22.00
Volume14
OI447
IV0.53
ContractTH271217P00025000
SidePut
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike25.00
Volume7
OI29
IV0.64
ContractTH261016C00019000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike19.00
Volume6
OI443
IV0.71
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.