Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
ORLY options intelligence
O’Reilly Automotive Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
31
Market data through 12 Aug 2026
Checked 13 Aug 2026 11:03 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
ORLY currently carries bullish options pressure with a 31/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
4.4%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.40
Call-side skew
Trend fit
10
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+4.7%
RS -14.4
Expected move
4.4%
Put-call volume
0.40
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.21
Max pain
90.00
Underlying
93.53
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
478
Research Brief
ORLY has a bullish chain read with 31/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 89.41–97.65; The largest call open-interest concentration is 95.00; the largest put concentration is 85.00. The most active strike by current volume is 95.00.
Priced range89.41–97.65
Call concentration95.00
Put concentration85.00
Max pain reference90.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 89.41 to 97.65. Max pain at 90.00 sits inside that range, 3.8% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
89.4193.53 ± 4.1297.65
Confirmation level
A close beyond 97.65 or below 89.41 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 31/100
Pressure is 49/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure49 × 42%
+20.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation19 × 22%
+4.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement10 × 26%
+2.7
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility33 × 10%
+3.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 95.00; the largest put concentration is 85.00. The most active strike by current volume is 95.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
10
50.00-46.5%
0
101
55.00-41.2%
0
11
60.00-35.8%
0
159
65.00-30.5%
2
661
70.00-25.2%
19
322
75.00-19.8%
79
872
80.00-14.5%
297
1985
85.00-9.1%
394
945
90.00-3.8%
2175
227
95.001.6%
4135
36
100.006.9%
2022
0
105.0012.3%
1340
0
110.0017.6%
338
0
115.0023.0%
80
0
120.0028.3%
49
0
125.0033.6%
5
0
135.0044.3%
6
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$7.7MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak95.00+$2.8M
Negative peak90.67-$488,757
Nearest balance93.35Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
82.67-11.6%
-$66,128
84.00-10.2%
+$4,586
85.00-9.1%
-$204,036
85.33-8.8%
+$48,254
86.67-7.3%
-$25,923
88.00-5.9%
+$64,033
89.33-4.5%
+$38,139
90.00-3.8%
+$779,967
90.67-3.1%
-$488,757
92.00-1.6%
-$72,455
93.33-0.2%
-$15,205
94.671.2%
+$1.3M
95.001.6%
+$2.8M
96.002.6%
+$317,010
97.334.1%
+$207,943
98.675.5%
+$92,157
100.006.9%
+$1.7M
101.338.3%
+$189,976
102.679.8%
+$26,140
104.0011.2%
+$144,034
105.0012.3%
+$253,416
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.21
21 Aug
9d
0.27
18 Sep
37d
0.29
20 Nov
100d
0.29
18 Dec
128d
0.29
15 Jan
156d
0.31
19 Feb
191d
0.31
19 Mar
219d
0.31
17 Jun
309d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 12 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 478 / 478
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $546,412 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+49
1W price+4.7%
Call premium72%
Put premium28%
Notional split
C 72% / P 28%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
10/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 88 contracts traded, $173,215 estimated gross traded notional, and 32% of visible notional.
$173,215
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM
calls cluster with 496 contracts traded, $108,405 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$108,405
Puts · 22-45 days · OTM
puts cluster with 326 contracts traded, $68,497 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$68,497
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 290 contracts traded, $67,768 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$67,768
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 156 contracts traded, $65,262 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$65,262
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Quiet tape
Activity is muted versus this ticker's stored history.
Baseline: 11 completed sessions
Volume rank18th
Volume/OI rank18th
IV rank9th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close93.53
1W+4.7%
RS-14.4
Fair value+13.1%
Options pressure49
Speculation19
Volatility33
Trend fit10
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 6.0% · 11 sessions
18th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.30 · 11 sessions
9th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.60 · 11 sessions
36th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.06 · 11 sessions
18th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:05
Bullish
Pressure 75
Move 10.2%
30 Jul 10:03
Mixed
Pressure -5
Move 10.1%
31 Jul 05:26
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 6.0%
1 Aug 10:09
Bullish
Pressure 36
Move 7.5%
2 Aug 01:22
Bullish
Pressure 36
Move 5.5%
4 Aug 10:00
Bullish
Pressure 77
Move 5.3%
5 Aug 10:02
Bullish
Pressure 73
Move 5.9%
6 Aug 10:01
Bullish
Pressure 77
Move 5.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 101
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 159
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 19
Puts · V 1 · OI 661
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 79
Puts · V 0 · OI 322
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 297
Puts · V 0 · OI 872
Strike85.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 394
Puts · V 4 · OI 1985
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.21
Put-call0.06
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts150
Avg IV0.27
Put-call0.60
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.29
Put-call0.39
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.29
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts48
Avg IV0.29
Put-call0.86
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.26
Skew-0.03
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.27
Skew-0.03
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.32
Skew-0.03
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.30
Skew0.02
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.30
Skew0.02
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractORLY260918C00094670
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike94.67
Volume413
OI3099
IV0.25
ContractORLY260821C00095000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike95.00
Volume310
OI4135
IV0.29
ContractORLY260918P00090670
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike90.67
Volume275
OI1209
IV0.26
ContractORLY261120C00105000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike105.00
Volume120
OI505
IV0.35
ContractORLY261120C00110000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike110.00
Volume89
OI288
IV0.30
ContractORLY260918C00112000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike112.00
Volume84
OI345
IV0.23
ContractORLY261120P00090000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike90.00
Volume76
OI57
IV0.30
ContractORLY260918C00093330
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike93.33
Volume63
OI250
IV0.31
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.