Ticker Options Intelligence

ESNT options intelligence

Essent Group Ltd options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 29 Market data through 18 Sep 2026 Checked 19 Sep 2026 13:00 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

ESNT currently carries mixed options pressure with a 29/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 5.7%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call -

Balanced tape

Trend fit 80

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -1.5%

RS -0.2

Expected move 5.7%
Put-call volume -
Volume / OI -
Reference IV 0.22
Max pain 70.00
Underlying 68.18
Nearest expiry 16 Oct 2026
Contracts 108

Research Brief

ESNT has a mixed chain read with 29/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 64.31–72.05; The largest call open-interest concentration is 70.00; the largest put concentration is 70.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00.

Priced range64.31–72.05
Call concentration70.00
Put concentration70.00
Max pain reference70.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 16 Oct

Options imply 64.31 to 72.05. Max pain at 70.00 sits inside that range, 2.7% above spot.

Spot Max pain
64.3168.18 ± 3.8772.05
Confirmation level

A close beyond 72.05 or below 64.31 at the 16 Oct expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 29/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 10/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure11 × 42%
+4.4

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation0 × 22%
+0.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement80 × 26%
+20.9

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility38 × 10%
+3.8

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score29.1Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 70.00; the largest put concentration is 70.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
30.00-56.0%
0
1
35.00-48.7%
0
2
40.00-41.3%
0
2
45.00-34.0%
0
2
50.00-26.7%
0
2
55.00-19.3%
0
1
60.00-12.0%
0
2
65.00-4.7%
2
22
70.002.7%
322
0
75.0010.0%
1
0
80.0017.3%
0
0
85.0024.7%
3
0
90.0032.0%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported Greeks · 100% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$121,653Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak70.00+$120,468
Negative peak50.00-$58
Nearest balance56.25Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
35.00-48.7%
-$8
40.00-41.3%
-$6
45.00-34.0%
-$17
50.00-26.7%
-$58
55.00-19.3%
-$29
60.00-12.0%
+$88
65.00-4.7%
+$281
70.002.7%
+$120,468
75.0010.0%
+$840
80.0017.3%
+$19
85.0024.7%
+$51
90.0032.0%
+$24
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.86× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.22 16 Oct 28d
0.21 20 Nov 63d
0.20 15 Jan 119d
0.25 16 Apr 210d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

55
60
65
70
75
80
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

21 matured · 9 directional

Across 9 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 33% of the time.

Directional follow-through33%
Moves contained by pricing95%
Average expiry move2.3%
16 Sep Volatility · 50 -1.5% through expiry 4.2% priced · v2.0
14 Sep Mixed · 30 -1.5% through expiry 5.3% priced · v2.0
11 Sep Mixed · 30 -1.5% through expiry 5.3% priced · v2.0
10 Sep Bullish · 46 -2.9% through expiry 5.2% priced · v2.0
8 Sep Bullish · 45 -2.9% through expiry 5.2% priced · v2.0
4 Sep Bullish · 46 -2.9% through expiry 5.2% priced · v2.0
2 Sep Mixed · 29 -2.5% through expiry 5.3% priced · v2.0
28 Aug Bullish · 46 -2.5% through expiry 5.2% priced · v2.0
21 Aug Mixed · 29 -1.3% through expiry 5.8% priced · v2.0
19 Aug Mixed · 31 -2.7% through expiry 4.3% priced · v2.0
18 Aug Bearish · 43 -2.7% through expiry 3.9% priced · v2.0
14 Aug Mixed · 28 -2.7% through expiry 2.6% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
18 Sep 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
108 / 108
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Likely noise

29/100
Primary intent Likely noise

Visible options activity is too thin or mixed to support a strong intent classification.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Likely noise matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $0 of estimated gross traded notional, no dominant cluster, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+10
1W price-1.5%
Call premium0%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 0% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 80/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters No dominant cluster

No high-conviction option cluster is visible in this snapshot.

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

28

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 23 completed sessions

Volume rank35th
Volume/OI rank35th
IV rank13th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close67.19
1W-1.5%
RS-0.2
Fair value+17.9%
Options pressure11
Speculation0
Volatility38
Trend fit80

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 5.7% elevated
30d avg 5.1% · 10 sessions 90th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -
IV 0.22 muted
30d avg 0.40 · 10 sessions 20th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -
Put-call - history building
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 14/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 14/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 near normal
30d avg 0.03 · 10 sessions 50th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:38 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 5.7%
30 Jul 10:34 Bullish
Pressure 97
Move 5.8%
31 Jul 10:23 Bullish
Pressure 99
Move 6.3%
2 Aug 07:41 Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 5.0%
2 Aug 12:57 Volatility
Pressure 87
Move 6.7%
3 Aug 22:20 Volatility
Pressure 87
Move 7.4%
5 Aug 10:30 Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 5.2%
6 Aug 10:43 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 5.8%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 2

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.22
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts28
Avg IV0.21
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts24
Avg IV0.20
Put-call-
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Contracts30
Avg IV0.25
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.06
Skew-0.14
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.22
Skew0.01
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.66
Skew0.44
16 Apr 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.31
Skew0.06

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractESNT261016C00070000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike70.00
Volume-
OI322
IV0.20
ContractESNT261016P00070000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike70.00
Volume-
OI22
IV0.22
ContractESNT270115C00075000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike75.00
Volume-
OI18
IV0.07
ContractESNT270115P00040000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike40.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.35
ContractESNT270115P00035000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.42
ContractESNT261016C00085000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike85.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.33
ContractESNT270115C00090000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike90.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.18
ContractESNT261016P00040000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike40.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.70

Evidence context