Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
GSK options intelligence
GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
34
Market data through 12 Aug 2026
Checked 13 Aug 2026 11:01 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
GSK currently carries bullish options pressure with a 34/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
6.0%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.33
Call-side skew
Trend fit
13
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+2.5%
RS -3.9
Expected move
6.0%
Put-call volume
0.33
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.58
Max pain
52.00
Underlying
52.96
Nearest expiry
14 Aug 2026
Contracts
518
Research Brief
GSK has a bullish chain read with 34/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 49.76–56.16; The largest call open-interest concentration is 53.00; the largest put concentration is 51.00. The most active strike by current volume is 51.00.
Priced range49.76–56.16
Call concentration53.00
Put concentration51.00
Max pain reference52.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 49.76 to 56.16. Max pain at 52.00 sits inside that range, 1.8% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
49.7652.96 ± 3.2056.16
Confirmation level
A close beyond 56.16 or below 49.76 at the 14 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 34/100
Pressure is 49/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure49 × 42%
+20.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation14 × 22%
+3.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement13 × 26%
+3.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility65 × 10%
+6.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 53.00; the largest put concentration is 51.00. The most active strike by current volume is 51.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
40.00-24.5%
3
0
41.00-22.6%
3
10
48.00-9.4%
2
31
49.00-7.5%
7
102
49.50-6.5%
2
97
50.00-5.6%
1
144
51.00-3.7%
0
77
52.00-1.8%
184
67
53.000.1%
251
19
54.002.0%
26
0
55.003.9%
4
2
56.005.7%
14
1
57.007.6%
2
0
58.009.5%
10
0
59.0011.4%
182
3
61.0015.2%
0
3
62.0017.1%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Negative gamma proxy
Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile-$2.1MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak55.00+$620,346
Negative peak50.00-$3.6M
Nearest balance50.99Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
44.00-16.9%
-$2,188
45.00-15.0%
-$337,438
46.00-13.1%
-$5,752
47.00-11.3%
-$19,026
47.50-10.3%
-$12,592
48.00-9.4%
-$63,671
48.50-8.4%
-$6,947
49.00-7.5%
-$95,136
49.50-6.5%
-$76,144
50.00-5.6%
-$3.6M
51.00-3.7%
+$52,125
52.00-1.8%
+$535,636
53.000.1%
+$431,862
54.002.0%
+$60,992
55.003.9%
+$620,346
56.005.7%
+$13,268
57.007.6%
+$9,621
58.009.5%
+$1,429
59.0011.4%
+$4,262
60.0013.3%
+$438,963
61.0015.2%
+$124
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.58
14 Aug
2d
0.35
21 Aug
9d
0.29
28 Aug
16d
0.28
4 Sep
23d
0.23
11 Sep
30d
0.28
18 Sep
37d
0.23
25 Sep
44d
0.29
20 Nov
100d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
43
44
45
46
48
48
49
49
50
50
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
60
61
62
63
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 4 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 100% of the time.
Directional follow-through100%
Moves contained by pricing50%
Average expiry move2.2%
6 Aug
Bullish · 35
2.5% through expiry
1.1% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Bullish · 28
2.5% through expiry
2.2% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Mixed · 35
2.5% through expiry
2.4% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Bullish · 38
2.5% through expiry
3.0% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Bullish · 36
2.5% through expiry
2.9% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Mixed · 37
0.7% through expiry
2.2% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 12 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 518 / 518
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Call activity against legacy put OI
Call activity is dominant while put open interest remains large but current put volume is not leading.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Call activity against legacy put OI matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $499,109 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+49
1W price+2.5%
Call premium87%
Put premium13%
Notional split
C 87% / P 13%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
13/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Do not infer a hedge unwind without next-session open-interest changes and opening/closing data.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 567 contracts traded, $356,978 estimated gross traded notional, and 72% of visible notional.
$356,978
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 279 contracts traded, $39,862 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$39,862
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 258 contracts traded, $33,262 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$33,262
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 328 contracts traded, $32,950 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$32,950
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 151 contracts traded, $8,192 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$8,192
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 11 completed sessions
Volume rank27th
Volume/OI rank18th
IV rank100th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close52.96
1W+2.5%
RS-3.9
Fair value+31.6%
Options pressure49
Speculation14
Volatility65
Trend fit13
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 3.1% · 11 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.38 · 11 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.64 · 11 sessions
18th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.04 · 11 sessions
18th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:02
Mixed
Pressure 0
Move 6.0%
30 Jul 10:01
Bullish
Pressure 20
Move 4.8%
31 Jul 10:01
Mixed
Pressure -11
Move 2.2%
31 Jul 17:04
Bullish
Pressure 26
Move 1.9%
31 Jul 18:44
Bullish
Pressure 24
Move 1.9%
31 Jul 21:09
Bullish
Pressure 23
Move 1.8%
1 Aug 01:05
Bullish
Pressure 49
Move 1.8%
3 Aug 10:28
Bullish
Pressure 48
Move 2.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike39.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike41.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike42.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike43.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike44.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV0.58
Put-call1.12
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts72
Avg IV0.35
Put-call0.19
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV0.29
Put-call-
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.28
Put-call2.71
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.23
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.06
Skew-0.28
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.32
Skew0.06
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.32
Skew-0.09
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.28
Skew0.03
11 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.08
Put IV0.29
Skew0.20
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractGSK260821C00055000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike55.00
Volume317
OI2647
IV0.26
ContractGSK270115C00050000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike50.00
Volume281
OI1075
IV0.23
ContractGSK260821C00050000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike50.00
Volume277
OI421
IV0.19
ContractGSK270115C00042000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike42.00
Volume200
OI383
IV0.16
ContractGSK261120P00045000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike45.00
Volume156
OI636
IV0.32
ContractGSK270115P00045000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike45.00
Volume69
OI510
IV0.31
ContractGSK270115C00055000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike55.00
Volume65
OI824
IV0.24
ContractGSK280121C00065000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike65.00
Volume60
OI1618
IV0.24
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.