Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
APD options intelligence
Air Products and Chemicals Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
41
Market data through 17 Sep 2026
Checked 18 Sep 2026 11:07 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
APD currently carries bullish options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 1.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.
Expected move
1.7%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.05
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.22
Call-side skew
Trend fit
23
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-3.3%
RS -3.5
Expected move
1.7%
Put-call volume
0.22
Volume / OI
0.05
Reference IV
0.44
Max pain
290.00
Underlying
291.43
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
588
Research Brief
APD has a bullish chain read with 41/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 286.43–296.43; The largest call open-interest concentration is 310.00; the largest put concentration is 240.00. The most active strike by current volume is 310.00.
Priced range286.43–296.43
Call concentration310.00
Put concentration240.00
Max pain reference290.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 286.43 to 296.43. Max pain at 290.00 sits inside that range, 0.5% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
286.43291.43 ± 5.00296.43
Confirmation level
A close beyond 296.43 or below 286.43 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 41/100
Pressure is 69/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure69 × 42%
+28.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation9 × 22%
+2.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement23 × 26%
+6.1
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility38 × 10%
+3.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 310.00; the largest put concentration is 240.00. The most active strike by current volume is 310.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
22
210.00-27.9%
0
43
230.00-21.1%
3
416
240.00-17.6%
1
73
250.00-14.2%
15
191
260.00-10.8%
10
140
270.00-7.4%
58
287
280.00-3.9%
159
188
290.00-0.5%
81
169
300.002.9%
228
2
310.006.4%
1015
0
320.009.8%
519
0
330.0013.2%
539
0
340.0016.7%
238
0
350.0020.1%
192
0
360.0023.5%
712
0
370.0027.0%
27
0
400.0037.3%
25
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile+$1.1MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak340.00+$1.2M
Negative peak270.00-$728,700
Nearest balance296.17Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
195.00-33.1%
-$945
200.00-31.4%
-$20,412
210.00-27.9%
-$3,707
220.00-24.5%
-$25,609
230.00-21.1%
-$206,960
240.00-17.6%
-$140,318
250.00-14.2%
-$127,914
260.00-10.8%
-$390,599
270.00-7.4%
-$728,700
280.00-3.9%
-$73,206
290.00-0.5%
-$485,411
300.002.9%
+$301,716
310.006.4%
+$753,532
320.009.8%
+$329,967
330.0013.2%
+$356,456
340.0016.7%
+$1.2M
350.0020.1%
+$260,779
360.0023.5%
+$54,342
370.0027.0%
+$18,771
380.0030.4%
+$9,942
390.0033.8%
+$3,571
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.44
18 Sep
1d
0.24
16 Oct
29d
0.26
20 Nov
64d
0.26
18 Dec
92d
0.25
15 Jan
120d
0.26
19 Mar
183d
0.26
17 Jun
273d
0.27
17 Sep
365d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 8 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 38% of the time.
Directional follow-through38%
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move1.8%
20 Aug
Bullish · 38
-1.3% through expiry
4.0% priced · v2.0
19 Aug
Mixed · 40
-1.3% through expiry
2.3% priced · v2.0
18 Aug
Bullish · 40
-1.3% through expiry
2.5% priced · v2.0
17 Aug
Bullish · 31
-1.3% through expiry
3.2% priced · v2.0
14 Aug
Mixed · 39
-1.3% through expiry
2.2% priced · v2.0
13 Aug
Mixed · 32
0.5% through expiry
3.2% priced · v2.0
12 Aug
Bullish · 38
0.5% through expiry
3.2% priced · v2.0
11 Aug
Mixed · 37
0.5% through expiry
4.0% priced · v2.0
10 Aug
Bearish · 48
0.5% through expiry
4.3% priced · v2.0
7 Aug
Mixed · 39
0.5% through expiry
3.9% priced · v2.0
6 Aug
Mixed · 31
3.5% through expiry
5.1% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Bullish · 38
3.5% through expiry
4.7% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 17 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 588 / 588
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $710,445 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · atm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+69
1W price-3.3%
Call premium68%
Put premium32%
Notional split
C 68% / P 32%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.05
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
23/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 324 contracts traded, $367,740 estimated gross traded notional, and 52% of visible notional.
$367,740
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 65 contracts traded, $155,225 estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$155,225
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $90,375 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$90,375
Puts · 22-45 days · OTM
puts cluster with 44 contracts traded, $16,328 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$16,328
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 10 contracts traded, $15,550 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$15,550
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Above normal
Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.
Baseline: 31 completed sessions
Volume rank81th
Volume/OI rank74th
IV rank97th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close291.43
1W-3.3%
RS-3.5
Fair value+7.5%
Options pressure69
Speculation9
Volatility38
Trend fit23
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 3.7% · 16 sessions
0th
90d avg 4.1% · 31 sessions
0th
180d avg - · 31/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.27 · 16 sessions
94th
90d avg 0.27 · 31 sessions
97th
180d avg - · 31/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.66 · 16 sessions
38th
90d avg 1.55 · 31 sessions
19th
180d avg - · 31/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.03 · 16 sessions
69th
90d avg 0.03 · 31 sessions
74th
180d avg - · 31/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
30 Jul 19:52
Bearish
Pressure -64
Move 5.4%
2 Aug 20:44
Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 5.4%
4 Aug 10:01
Mixed
Pressure 3
Move 4.8%
5 Aug 10:04
Bullish
Pressure 64
Move 5.2%
6 Aug 10:03
Bullish
Pressure 50
Move 4.7%
7 Aug 10:24
Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 5.1%
9 Aug 06:13
Mixed
Pressure 18
Move 3.9%
11 Aug 10:21
Bearish
Pressure -44
Move 4.3%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike135.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Strike140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 15
Strike145.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike150.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 4
Strike155.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike165.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike170.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts76
Avg IV0.44
Put-call0.02
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.24
Put-call0.41
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.05
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts80
Avg IV0.26
Put-call5.20
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts94
Avg IV0.25
Put-call18.75
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.64
Put IV0.18
Skew-0.46
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.18
Put IV0.30
Skew0.12
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.28
Skew0.04
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.30
Skew0.04
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.29
Skew0.06
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractAPD260918C00310000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike310.00
Volume332
OI1015
IV0.57
ContractAPD261120C00290000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike290.00
Volume324
OI-
IV0.26
ContractAPD261016C00310000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike310.00
Volume122
OI349
IV0.22
ContractAPD270115P00300000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike300.00
Volume64
OI63
IV0.27
ContractAPD261016P00280000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike280.00
Volume25
OI44
IV0.23
ContractAPD261016P00270000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike270.00
Volume17
OI74
IV0.30
ContractAPD261218P00290000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike290.00
Volume10
OI73
IV0.26
ContractAPD261120P00280000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike280.00
Volume10
OI-
IV0.28
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.