Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
HLT options intelligence
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
39
Market data through 12 Aug 2026
Checked 12 Aug 2026 16:59 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
HLT currently carries bullish options pressure with a 39/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.08.
Expected move
2.7%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.08
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.73
Call-side skew
Trend fit
68
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-0.9%
RS -5.4
Expected move
2.7%
Put-call volume
0.73
Volume / OI
0.08
Reference IV
0.39
Max pain
317.50
Underlying
317.60
Nearest expiry
14 Aug 2026
Contracts
569
Research Brief
HLT has a bullish chain read with 39/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 309.00–326.20; The largest call open-interest concentration is 335.00; the largest put concentration is 307.50. The most active strike by current volume is 297.50.
Priced range309.00–326.20
Call concentration335.00
Put concentration307.50
Max pain reference317.50
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 309.00 to 326.20. Max pain at 317.50 sits inside that range, 0.0% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
309.00317.60 ± 8.60326.20
Confirmation level
A close beyond 326.20 or below 309.00 at the 14 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 39/100
Pressure is 20/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure20 × 42%
+8.3
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement68 × 26%
+17.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility38 × 10%
+3.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 335.00; the largest put concentration is 307.50. The most active strike by current volume is 297.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
215.00-32.3%
23
11
285.00-10.3%
0
32
290.00-8.7%
0
20
295.00-7.1%
1
35
297.50-6.3%
0
64
300.00-5.5%
0
15
305.00-4.0%
0
89
307.50-3.2%
0
55
310.00-2.4%
0
40
312.50-1.6%
0
16
315.00-0.8%
5
85
317.500.0%
4
1
320.000.8%
7
1
322.501.5%
8
2
325.002.3%
3
5
330.003.9%
4
0
335.005.5%
101
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$11.8MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak300.00+$12.5M
Negative peak290.00-$820,362
Nearest balance317.99Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
295.00-7.1%
-$47,525
297.50-6.3%
-$40,774
300.00-5.5%
+$12.5M
302.50-4.8%
-$16,532
305.00-4.0%
-$170,943
307.50-3.2%
-$221,368
310.00-2.4%
-$664,273
312.50-1.6%
-$123,411
315.00-0.8%
-$88,884
317.500.0%
-$323,074
320.000.8%
+$1.3M
322.501.5%
+$128,633
325.002.3%
-$281,196
327.503.1%
-$397,043
330.003.9%
-$92,386
332.504.7%
+$4,555
335.005.5%
+$103,423
337.506.3%
+$1,156
340.007.1%
+$563,300
342.507.8%
+$606
345.008.6%
+$19,356
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.39
14 Aug
2d
0.33
21 Aug
9d
0.31
28 Aug
16d
0.32
4 Sep
23d
0.30
11 Sep
30d
0.26
18 Sep
37d
0.28
25 Sep
44d
0.29
16 Oct
65d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
280
285
295
298
303
305
310
313
318
320
323
328
330
335
338
343
345
350
355
365
370
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 4 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 25% of the time.
Directional follow-through25%
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move1.0%
6 Aug
Bearish · 50
-0.9% through expiry
1.7% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Bullish · 38
-0.9% through expiry
2.2% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Bullish · 45
-0.9% through expiry
3.1% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Mixed · 39
-0.9% through expiry
2.9% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Bullish · 44
-0.9% through expiry
3.2% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Mixed · 34
-1.4% through expiry
2.1% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 12 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 569 / 569
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Call-heavy activity with trend alignment
Call concentration and the underlying trend align, but aggregate volume cannot establish whether calls were bought or sold.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Call-heavy activity with trend alignment matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $10.5M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+20
1W price-0.9%
Call premium80%
Put premium20%
Notional split
C 80% / P 20%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.08
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
68/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 493 contracts traded, $5.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 48% of visible notional.
$5.1M
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 246 contracts traded, $1.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$1.3M
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 138 contracts traded, $1.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$1.1M
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 96 contracts traded, $996,239 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$996,239
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 596 contracts traded, $860,050 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$860,050
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Above normal
Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.
Baseline: 11 completed sessions
Volume rank82th
Volume/OI rank82th
IV rank91th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close317.60
1W-0.9%
RS-5.4
Fair value+30.7%
Options pressure20
Speculation42
Volatility38
Trend fit68
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 2.5% · 11 sessions
64th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.28 · 11 sessions
91th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.97 · 11 sessions
45th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.05 · 11 sessions
82th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:04
Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 2.4%
30 Jul 10:03
Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 2.4%
30 Jul 22:13
Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 2.1%
31 Jul 08:38
Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 2.1%
31 Jul 11:37
Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 2.1%
31 Jul 14:34
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 2.2%
31 Jul 17:03
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 2.0%
31 Jul 17:42
Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 1.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike215.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 23
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike235.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike280.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike285.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 11
Strike290.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 32
Strike295.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 20
Strike297.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 200 · OI 35
Strike300.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 10 · OI 64
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts45
Avg IV0.39
Put-call1.75
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts49
Avg IV0.33
Put-call0.66
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.31
Put-call0.68
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts19
Avg IV0.32
Put-call0.52
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Contracts15
Avg IV0.30
Put-call10.29
Skew
Call/put IV balance
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.59
Skew0.22
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.46
Skew0.15
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.41
Skew0.12
4 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.38
Skew0.11
11 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.34
Skew0.07
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractHLT260814P00317500
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike317.50
Volume-
OI85
IV0.47
ContractHLT260911C00325000
SideCall
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Strike325.00
Volume-
OI53
IV0.29
ContractHLT270115P00120000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike120.00
Volume-
OI36
IV1.09
ContractHLT270115C00165000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike165.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.00
ContractHLT260911P00315000
SidePut
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Strike315.00
Volume-
OI13
IV0.29
ContractHLT260918C00125000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike125.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.00
ContractHLT261218P00135000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike135.00
Volume-
OI7
IV0.79
ContractHLT280121C00220000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike220.00
Volume-
OI7
IV0.50
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.