Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
TRV options intelligence
The Travelers Companies Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
30
Market data through 17 Sep 2026
Checked 18 Sep 2026 13:07 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
TRV currently carries mixed options pressure with a 30/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 1.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
1.2%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.11
Balanced tape
Trend fit
97
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-0.2%
RS 12.8
Expected move
1.2%
Put-call volume
1.11
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.27
Max pain
370.00
Underlying
375.20
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
728
Research Brief
TRV has a mixed chain read with 30/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 370.82–379.58; The largest call open-interest concentration is 380.00; the largest put concentration is 370.00. The most active strike by current volume is 380.00.
Priced range370.82–379.58
Call concentration380.00
Put concentration370.00
Max pain reference370.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 370.82 to 379.58. Max pain at 370.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
370.82375.20 ± 4.38379.58
Confirmation level
A close beyond 379.58 or below 370.82 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 30/100
Pressure is 1/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure1 × 42%
+0.3
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation10 × 22%
+2.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement97 × 26%
+25.2
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility23 × 10%
+2.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 380.00; the largest put concentration is 370.00. The most active strike by current volume is 380.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
5
290.00-22.7%
0
4
300.00-20.0%
0
58
320.00-14.7%
1
124
330.00-12.0%
0
334
340.00-9.4%
1
199
350.00-6.7%
7
176
360.00-4.1%
180
371
370.00-1.4%
216
173
380.001.3%
377
13
390.003.9%
375
0
400.006.6%
260
0
410.009.3%
170
0
420.0011.9%
42
0
430.0014.6%
28
0
440.0017.3%
4
0
460.0022.6%
25
0
480.0027.9%
11
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$7.2MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak380.00+$2.7M
Negative peak320.00-$38,035
Nearest balance328.63Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
280.00-25.4%
-$8,794
290.00-22.7%
-$2,963
300.00-20.0%
-$583
310.00-17.4%
-$10,019
320.00-14.7%
-$38,035
330.00-12.0%
+$6,035
340.00-9.4%
+$276,957
350.00-6.7%
+$275,483
360.00-4.1%
+$68,251
370.00-1.4%
+$759,339
380.001.3%
+$2.7M
390.003.9%
+$1.3M
400.006.6%
+$652,927
410.009.3%
+$483,364
420.0011.9%
+$211,361
430.0014.6%
+$81,382
440.0017.3%
+$345,061
450.0019.9%
+$68,732
460.0022.6%
+$42,438
470.0025.3%
+$6,623
480.0027.9%
+$27,441
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.27
18 Sep
1d
0.25
16 Oct
29d
0.24
20 Nov
64d
0.24
15 Jan
120d
0.24
16 Apr
211d
0.24
17 Jun
273d
0.24
17 Sep
365d
0.25
17 Dec
456d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
440
450
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 14 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 57% of the time.
Directional follow-through57%
Moves contained by pricing69%
Average expiry move2.9%
17 Sep
Mixed · 30
-0.2% through expiry
1.2% priced · v2.0
15 Sep
Bullish · 40
-0.2% through expiry
1.9% priced · v2.0
11 Sep
Bullish · 34
-0.2% through expiry
2.6% priced · v2.0
10 Sep
Bullish · 41
1.4% through expiry
2.9% priced · v2.0
8 Sep
Bullish · 35
1.4% through expiry
3.2% priced · v2.0
4 Sep
Bullish · 36
1.4% through expiry
3.1% priced · v2.0
1 Sep
Mixed · 32
1.3% through expiry
3.9% priced · v2.0
28 Aug
Mixed · 30
1.3% through expiry
3.9% priced · v2.0
27 Aug
Bullish · 37
3.0% through expiry
4.7% priced · v2.0
26 Aug
Bullish · 43
3.0% through expiry
5.3% priced · v2.0
25 Aug
Mixed · 34
3.0% through expiry
5.0% priced · v2.0
24 Aug
Mixed · 39
3.0% through expiry
5.2% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 17 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 728 / 728
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $372,187 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-1
1W price-0.2%
Call premium92%
Put premium8%
Notional split
C 92% / P 8%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
97/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 32 contracts traded, $243,880 estimated gross traded notional, and 66% of visible notional.
$243,880
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 17 contracts traded, $32,745 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$32,745
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 108 contracts traded, $21,820 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$21,820
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM
calls cluster with 65 contracts traded, $19,045 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$19,045
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 7 contracts traded, $14,495 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$14,495
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 30 completed sessions
Volume rank27th
Volume/OI rank30th
IV rank83th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close374.62
1W-0.2%
RS12.8
Fair value+48.6%
Options pressure-1
Speculation10
Volatility23
Trend fit97
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 3.4% · 15 sessions
0th
90d avg 3.7% · 30 sessions
0th
180d avg - · 30/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.24 · 15 sessions
67th
90d avg 0.23 · 30 sessions
83th
180d avg - · 30/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.69 · 15 sessions
93th
90d avg 1.00 · 30 sessions
67th
180d avg - · 30/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.04 · 15 sessions
40th
90d avg 0.05 · 30 sessions
30th
180d avg - · 30/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
8 Aug 03:33
Mixed
Pressure -3
Move 4.9%
9 Aug 22:09
Mixed
Pressure -3
Move 3.5%
10 Aug 13:49
Mixed
Pressure -10
Move 3.2%
11 Aug 15:07
Bearish
Pressure -24
Move 3.2%
11 Aug 23:51
Bearish
Pressure -21
Move 3.0%
12 Aug 00:53
Mixed
Pressure -5
Move 3.0%
13 Aug 10:00
Mixed
Pressure -11
Move 3.4%
14 Aug 04:17
Bullish
Pressure 41
Move 3.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike200.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike210.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike220.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike230.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike240.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike250.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike260.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike270.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.27
Put-call0.57
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV0.25
Put-call0.49
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.24
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts96
Avg IV0.24
Put-call4.14
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Contracts58
Avg IV0.24
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.20
Skew-0.06
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.25
Skew-
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.25
Skew0.01
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.26
Skew0.03
16 Apr 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.25
Skew0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractTRV260918C00380000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike380.00
Volume56
OI377
IV0.26
ContractTRV270115P00210000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike210.00
Volume50
OI43
IV0.49
ContractTRV280121P00220000
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike220.00
Volume50
OI-
IV0.32
ContractTRV260918P00370000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike370.00
Volume40
OI371
IV0.20
ContractTRV261016C00360000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike360.00
Volume20
OI186
IV0.27
ContractTRV260918C00390000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike390.00
Volume11
OI375
IV0.21
ContractTRV260918C00400000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike400.00
Volume9
OI260
IV0.38
ContractTRV260918C00370000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike370.00
Volume9
OI216
IV0.30
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.