Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
ASML options intelligence
ASML Holding NV ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
45
Market data through 17 Aug 2026
Checked 17 Aug 2026 17:35 · partial chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
ASML currently carries bearish options pressure with a 45/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.15.
Expected move
4.3%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.15
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.77
Put-side skew
Trend fit
67
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+5.9%
RS 22.7
Expected move
4.3%
Put-call volume
1.77
Volume / OI
0.15
Reference IV
0.44
Max pain
1700.00
Underlying
1844.08
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
2000
Research Brief
ASML has a bearish chain read with 45/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 1764.48–1923.68; The largest call open-interest concentration is 1900.00; the largest put concentration is 1300.00. The most active strike by current volume is 1575.00.
Priced range1764.48–1923.68
Call concentration1900.00
Put concentration1300.00
Max pain reference1700.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 1764.48 to 1923.68. Max pain at 1700.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
1764.481844.08 ± 79.601923.68
Confirmation level
A close beyond 1923.68 or below 1764.48 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 45/100
Pressure is 33/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure33 × 42%
+13.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation43 × 22%
+9.5
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement67 × 26%
+17.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility48 × 10%
+4.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 1900.00; the largest put concentration is 1300.00. The most active strike by current volume is 1575.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
753
1100.00-40.3%
16
2162
1300.00-29.5%
18
946
1400.00-24.1%
43
787
1500.00-18.7%
521
373
1575.00-14.6%
19
668
1580.00-14.3%
55
619
1600.00-13.2%
389
259
1620.00-12.2%
298
637
1640.00-11.1%
103
431
1660.00-10.0%
407
549
1700.00-7.8%
1065
253
1750.00-5.1%
614
1027
1850.000.3%
331
56
1860.000.9%
570
37
1900.003.0%
1926
47
2000.008.5%
1276
8
2100.0013.9%
966
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$68.7MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak1900.00+$27.4M
Negative peak1850.00-$11.5M
Nearest balance1845.18Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
1797.50-2.5%
+$506,163
1800.00-2.4%
+$3.9M
1805.00-2.1%
+$79,754
1810.00-1.8%
+$439,594
1815.00-1.6%
+$202,354
1820.00-1.3%
+$2.0M
1825.00-1.0%
-$254,854
1830.00-0.8%
+$1.3M
1832.50-0.6%
-$48,536
1835.00-0.5%
-$52,115
1840.00-0.2%
+$1.2M
1845.000.0%
+$432,908
1850.000.3%
-$11.5M
1855.000.6%
+$37,789
1860.000.9%
+$7.9M
1865.001.1%
+$3,970
1870.001.4%
+$930,637
1875.001.7%
+$125,125
1880.001.9%
+$6.6M
1885.002.2%
+$142,733
1890.002.5%
+$1.4M
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.44
21 Aug
4d
0.45
28 Aug
11d
0.47
4 Sep
18d
0.47
11 Sep
25d
0.44
18 Sep
32d
0.47
25 Sep
39d
0.48
2 Oct
46d
0.48
16 Oct
60d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
1480
1535
1560
1585
1620
1655
1680
1705
1720
1740
1765
1780
1795
1810
1835
1870
1910
1950
2020
2120
2200
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 4 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 0% of the time.
Directional follow-through0%
Moves contained by pricing27%
Average expiry move6.6%
13 Aug
Bearish · 47
5.9% through expiry
6.3% priced · v2.0
12 Aug
Bearish · 50
5.9% through expiry
4.7% priced · v2.0
11 Aug
Mixed · 45
5.9% through expiry
4.6% priced · v2.0
10 Aug
Bearish · 46
5.9% through expiry
4.6% priced · v2.0
7 Aug
Volatility · 45
6.9% through expiry
6.4% priced · v2.0
6 Aug
Mixed · 44
6.9% through expiry
5.4% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Bearish · 46
6.9% through expiry
5.3% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Volatility · 49
6.9% through expiry
7.0% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Mixed · 43
6.9% through expiry
6.1% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Mixed · 45
6.9% through expiry
6.9% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Volatility · 46
-7.3% through expiry
6.1% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain46%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes98%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Retained chain subset
- Market date
- 17 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 2000 / 4313
- 46% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $81.2M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · itm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-33
1W price+5.9%
Call premium85%
Put premium15%
Notional split
C 85% / P 15%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.15
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
67/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 360 contracts traded, $25.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 31% of visible notional.
$25.1M
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 432 contracts traded, $18.8M estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$18.8M
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 303 contracts traded, $12.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$12.6M
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
puts cluster with 111 contracts traded, $3.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$3.5M
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM
calls cluster with 295 contracts traded, $3.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$3.4M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Activity Anomaly
Quiet tape
Activity is muted versus this ticker's stored history.
Baseline: 14 completed sessions
Volume rank36th
Volume/OI rank7th
IV rank7th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close1844.08
1W+5.9%
RS22.7
Fair value+93.5%
Options pressure-33
Speculation43
Volatility48
Trend fit67
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 6.4% · 14 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 14/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 14/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.61 · 14 sessions
7th
90d avg - · 14/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 14/60 sessions
-
30d avg 1.46 · 14 sessions
86th
90d avg - · 14/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 14/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.20 · 14 sessions
7th
90d avg - · 14/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 14/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
10 Aug 13:40
Bearish
Pressure -26
Move 5.5%
10 Aug 15:00
Bearish
Pressure -33
Move 5.0%
10 Aug 15:43
Bearish
Pressure -23
Move 4.8%
10 Aug 17:10
Bearish
Pressure -22
Move 4.6%
10 Aug 18:40
Bearish
Pressure -25
Move 4.6%
11 Aug 13:40
Bearish
Pressure -29
Move 5.1%
11 Aug 14:46
Bearish
Pressure -24
Move 5.5%
11 Aug 16:20
Bearish
Pressure -23
Move 4.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike540.00
Calls · V 15 · OI 11
Puts · V 9 · OI 21
Strike560.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 4
Puts · V 1 · OI 77
Strike570.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 276
Strike580.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 106 · OI 21
Strike590.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 53
Strike600.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 2 · OI 81
Strike610.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 8 · OI 71
Strike620.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 15
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts387
Avg IV0.44
Put-call1.74
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts409
Avg IV0.45
Put-call2.34
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts358
Avg IV0.47
Put-call0.93
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Contracts257
Avg IV0.47
Put-call2.81
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts316
Avg IV0.44
Put-call2.01
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.46
Skew0.03
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.45
Skew0.01
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.44
Skew-0.03
11 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.44
Skew-0.02
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.43
Skew-0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractASML260925P01030000
SidePut
Expiry25 Sep 2026
Strike1030.00
Volume-
OI-
IV1.24
ContractASML261002C02190000
SideCall
Expiry2 Oct 2026
Strike2190.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.48
ContractASML261002C01835000
SideCall
Expiry2 Oct 2026
Strike1835.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.48
ContractASML260911P01385000
SidePut
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Strike1385.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.76
ContractASML260911P01390000
SidePut
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Strike1390.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.66
ContractASML260904C01550000
SideCall
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike1550.00
Volume-
OI100
IV0.56
ContractASML260821P01665000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike1665.00
Volume-
OI77
IV0.52
ContractASML260911P01190000
SidePut
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Strike1190.00
Volume-
OI71
IV1.10
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.