Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
ARR options intelligence
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
35
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:33 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
ARR currently carries bullish options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
4.9%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.56
Call-side skew
Trend fit
29
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-2.0%
RS -3.8
Expected move
4.9%
Put-call volume
0.56
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.22
Max pain
17.00
Underlying
16.27
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
170
Research Brief
ARR has a bullish chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 15.47–17.07; The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.00; the largest put concentration is 17.00. The most active strike by current volume is 16.00.
Priced range15.47–17.07
Call concentration17.00
Put concentration17.00
Max pain reference17.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 15.47 to 17.07. Max pain at 17.00 sits inside that range, 4.5% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
15.4716.27 ± 0.8017.07
Confirmation level
A close beyond 17.07 or below 15.47 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 35/100
Pressure is 35/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure35 × 42%
+14.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement29 × 26%
+7.6
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility35 × 10%
+3.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.00; the largest put concentration is 17.00. The most active strike by current volume is 16.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
2
9.00-44.7%
0
0
10.00-38.5%
0
0
11.00-32.4%
2
0
12.00-26.2%
1
0
13.00-20.1%
0
0
14.00-14.0%
0
687
15.00-7.8%
20
823
16.00-1.7%
294
2171
17.004.5%
2063
81
18.0010.6%
629
1
19.0016.8%
27
0
20.0022.9%
0
0
21.0029.1%
0
0
22.0035.2%
0
0
23.0041.4%
0
0
24.0047.5%
0
0
25.0053.7%
18
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.22
21 Aug
22d
0.22
18 Sep
50d
0.25
16 Oct
78d
0.27
15 Jan
169d
0.26
21 Jan
540d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
14
15
16
17
18
19
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 170 / 170
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $21246 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+35
1W price-2.0%
Call premium44%
Put premium56%
Notional split
C 44% / P 56%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
29/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 20 contracts traded, $4950 estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$4950
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM
puts cluster with 124 contracts traded, $3100 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$3100
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $2720 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$2720
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 23 contracts traded, $1840 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$1840
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $1700 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$1700
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close16.27
1W-2.0%
RS-3.8
Fair value+12.8%
Options pressure35
Speculation41
Volatility35
Trend fit29
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:00
Bullish
Pressure 67
Move 5.5%
30 Jul 10:49
Bullish
Pressure 68
Move 5.7%
31 Jul 10:33
Bullish
Pressure 35
Move 4.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike9.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike10.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike11.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike13.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike14.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 20
Puts · V 10 · OI 687
Strike16.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 294
Puts · V 124 · OI 823
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.22
Put-call0.88
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.22
Put-call0.10
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.25
Put-call2.08
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts44
Avg IV0.27
Put-call0.32
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Contracts24
Avg IV0.26
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.16
Put IV0.29
Skew0.13
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.13
Put IV0.33
Skew0.20
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.16
Put IV0.33
Skew0.17
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.12
Put IV0.36
Skew0.23
21 Jan 2028Put IV premium
Call IV0.12
Put IV0.46
Skew0.34
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractARR260821P00016000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike16.00
Volume124
OI823
IV0.29
ContractARR260918C00018000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike18.00
Volume102
OI12
IV0.12
ContractARR260821C00018000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike18.00
Volume84
OI629
IV0.19
ContractARR260821C00017000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.00
Volume76
OI2063
IV0.16
ContractARR270115C00018000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike18.00
Volume59
OI610
IV0.12
ContractARR270115P00015000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike15.00
Volume23
OI256
IV0.36
ContractARR261016P00018000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike18.00
Volume20
OI70
IV0.53
ContractARR260821P00017000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.00
Volume12
OI2171
IV0.34
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.