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Ticker Options Intelligence
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
The reading · 2026-09-23
Options do not give a clear directional confirmation of the stock trend. Stock context: 2026-09-18.
Changed from bullish to mixed pressure.
Compared with 22 Sep 2026.±9.8% through 2026-10-16
USD 13.17 – 16.03
Usable near-money quotes support an IV estimate; a two-sided straddle is unavailable.
This describes the size of a priced move, not its direction or a guaranteed trading range.Options-market disagreement
Wider near-term move priced
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Balanced tape
Options are not fully confirming trend
RS -15.7
The outcome record
Stock-price direction through expiry, using the first available weekly close on or just after expiry. These are not option-trade returns.
New readings are saved before their outcomes. A calculation change starts a separate record.
0 / 0Non-overlapping directional readings followed through.
1 waiting for an outcome · 0 excluded by data or timing checks.
Too few independent outcomes to establish an edge.Non-overlapping directional readings followed through. 16 overlapping readings left out.
Always-up baseline: 0% · Always-down: 100%.
95% interval: 9–91%.
This is a retrospective audit of saved versions, separate from the record collected in advance.
The baselines use the same stocks and observation windows. They ask whether a simple up or down call did as well.
Removing overlapping windows reduces repeated counting. It does not make market observations fully independent.
The interval shows sampling uncertainty. Costs, execution and option selection are not tested here.
Priced Move
Options imply 13.17 to 16.03. Max pain at 16.00 sits inside that range, 9.6% above spot.
A close beyond 16.03 or below 13.17 at the 16 Oct expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Pressure is 14/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
The largest call open-interest concentration is 18.00; the largest put concentration is 15.00. The most active strike by current volume is 16.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Gamma Profile by Strike
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
Volatility by Strike
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
Historical Replay
Across 18 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 33% of the time.
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Visible options activity is too thin or mixed to support a strong intent classification.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Likely noise matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $33,964 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 22-45 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Setup Classification
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 24 completed sessions
Market Context
Today Versus Normal
Pressure Trail
Strike Map
Term Structure
Skew
Contract Tape
Research Graph
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Plain English Guide
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.
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