Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
EXC options intelligence
Exelon Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
35
Market data through 12 Aug 2026
Checked 13 Aug 2026 11:20 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
EXC currently carries bullish options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
2.9%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.35
Call-side skew
Trend fit
7
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.5%
RS -12.1
Expected move
2.9%
Put-call volume
0.35
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.15
Max pain
47.00
Underlying
45.61
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
290
Research Brief
EXC has a bullish chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 44.31–46.91; The largest call open-interest concentration is 47.00; the largest put concentration is 47.00. The most active strike by current volume is 44.00.
Priced range44.31–46.91
Call concentration47.00
Put concentration47.00
Max pain reference47.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 44.31 to 46.91. Max pain at 47.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
44.3145.61 ± 1.3046.91
Confirmation level
A close beyond 46.91 or below 44.31 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 35/100
Pressure is 53/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure53 × 42%
+22.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement7 × 26%
+1.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility22 × 10%
+2.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 47.00; the largest put concentration is 47.00. The most active strike by current volume is 44.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
38.00-16.7%
0
2
39.00-14.5%
0
12
40.00-12.3%
1
15
41.00-10.1%
0
86
42.00-7.9%
0
74
43.00-5.7%
11
234
44.00-3.5%
18
346
45.00-1.3%
37
336
46.000.9%
216
470
47.003.0%
3597
118
48.005.2%
665
0
49.007.4%
1246
0
50.009.6%
2965
0
55.0020.6%
26
0
60.0031.6%
0
0
65.0042.5%
0
0
70.0053.5%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile+$583,434Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak47.00+$640,549
Negative peak43.00-$841,713
Nearest balance45.47Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
28.00-38.6%
-$796
30.00-34.2%
-$2,041
33.00-27.6%
-$32,957
35.00-23.3%
-$9,022
37.00-18.9%
-$500
38.00-16.7%
-$49,974
39.00-14.5%
-$877
40.00-12.3%
-$223,998
41.00-10.1%
-$7,139
42.00-7.9%
-$88,486
43.00-5.7%
-$841,713
44.00-3.5%
-$88,869
45.00-1.3%
-$128,250
46.000.9%
+$145,279
47.003.0%
+$640,549
48.005.2%
+$279,995
49.007.4%
+$154,899
50.009.6%
+$637,033
55.0020.6%
+$175,676
60.0031.6%
+$14,904
65.0042.5%
+$7,920
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.15
21 Aug
9d
0.21
18 Sep
37d
0.19
16 Oct
65d
0.21
18 Dec
128d
0.20
15 Jan
156d
0.22
19 Mar
219d
0.22
17 Jun
309d
0.24
21 Jan
527d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 12 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 290 / 290
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $164,170 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+53
1W price-0.5%
Call premium75%
Put premium25%
Notional split
C 75% / P 25%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
7/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 806 contracts traded, $73,710 estimated gross traded notional, and 45% of visible notional.
$73,710
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 228 contracts traded, $45,600 estimated gross traded notional, and 28% of visible notional.
$45,600
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 137 contracts traded, $12,350 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$12,350
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM
puts cluster with 31 contracts traded, $7,828 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$7,828
Puts · 22-45 days · ATM
puts cluster with 69 contracts traded, $7,762 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$7,762
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 11 completed sessions
Volume rank73th
Volume/OI rank73th
IV rank0th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close45.61
1W-0.5%
RS-12.1
Fair value+15.4%
Options pressure53
Speculation41
Volatility22
Trend fit7
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 4.1% · 11 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.22 · 11 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 5.41 · 11 sessions
73th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.03 · 11 sessions
73th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:10
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 5.3%
30 Jul 10:06
Bearish
Pressure -89
Move 4.8%
30 Jul 15:21
Bearish
Pressure -74
Move 6.1%
30 Jul 15:46
Bearish
Pressure -34
Move 6.2%
30 Jul 19:42
Bearish
Pressure -23
Move 6.1%
30 Jul 23:13
Bearish
Pressure -22
Move 6.2%
31 Jul 08:38
Bearish
Pressure -26
Move 6.2%
31 Jul 13:59
Bearish
Pressure -22
Move 5.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike38.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike39.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 12
Strike41.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 15
Strike42.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 16 · OI 86
Strike43.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 11
Puts · V 0 · OI 74
Strike44.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 18
Puts · V 60 · OI 234
Strike45.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 37
Puts · V 1 · OI 346
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.15
Put-call6.05
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.21
Put-call2.51
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.19
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.21
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts50
Avg IV0.20
Put-call0.11
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.17
Put IV0.19
Skew0.02
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.17
Put IV0.23
Skew0.06
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.18
Put IV0.22
Skew0.04
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.17
Put IV0.24
Skew0.07
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.18
Put IV0.26
Skew0.08
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractEXC270115C00050000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike50.00
Volume403
OI1233
IV0.18
ContractEXC270115C00049000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike49.00
Volume398
OI368
IV0.18
ContractEXC270115C00046000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike46.00
Volume228
OI27
IV0.17
ContractEXC270115P00040000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike40.00
Volume69
OI2057
IV0.25
ContractEXC260918P00045000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike45.00
Volume69
OI655
IV0.23
ContractEXC260821P00044000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike44.00
Volume60
OI234
IV0.19
ContractEXC260821P00046000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike46.00
Volume50
OI336
IV0.23
ContractEXC270617P00025000
SidePut
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike25.00
Volume36
OI-
IV0.41
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.