What changed?
Changed from bullish to mixed pressure.
Compared with 23 Sep 2026.- Options balance
- -69.3 pointsBullish → Mixed
- Stock reference
- +1.5%Between the two saved price references
- Priced move
- -0.1 ppSame expiry; time remaining has also changed
Checking for a newer reading. Your saved analysis remains available below and will update automatically.
Ticker Options Intelligence
CRS options intelligence
Carpenter Technology Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
14
Market data through 24 Sep 2026
Checked 25 Sep 2026 09:00 · complete available chain
The reading · 2026-09-24
No clear directional balance
Use with limits
Options do not give a clear directional confirmation of the stock trend. Stock context: 2026-09-18.
Price references
±9.1% through 2026-10-16
USD 364.55 – 437.15
Near-money call and put quotes support this range.
This describes the size of a priced move, not its direction or a guaranteed trading range.- Call concentration
- 460.00
- Put concentration
- 370.00
What to watch
Supports this reading
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
Would weaken it
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Expected move
9.1%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.32
Put-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-7.9%
RS -6.7
Expected move
9.1%
Put-call volume
1.32
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.46
Max pain
430.00
Underlying
400.85
Nearest expiry
16 Oct 2026
Contracts
558
The outcome record
What followed the dated readings?
Stock-price direction through expiry, using the first available weekly close on or just after expiry. These are not option-trade returns.
Recorded in advance
New readings are saved before their outcomes. A calculation change starts a separate record.
0 / 0Non-overlapping directional readings followed through.
2 waiting for an outcome · 0 excluded by data or timing checks.
Too few independent outcomes to establish an edge.Earlier saved readings
0 / 2Non-overlapping directional readings followed through. 14 overlapping readings left out.
Always-up baseline: 0% · Always-down: 100%.
95% interval: 0–66%.
This is a retrospective audit of saved versions, separate from the record collected in advance.
How to read this
The baselines use the same stocks and observation windows. They ask whether a simple up or down call did as well.
Removing overlapping windows reduces repeated counting. It does not make market observations fully independent.
The interval shows sampling uncertainty. Costs, execution and option selection are not tested here.
Priced Move
The priced move through expiry
Options imply 364.55 to 437.15. Max pain at 430.00 sits inside that range, 7.3% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
364.55400.85 ± 36.30437.15
Confirmation level
A close beyond 437.15 or below 364.55 at the 16 Oct expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Evidence behind the reading
Pressure is 8/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure8 / 100
8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation17 / 100
17
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 / 100
0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility69 / 100
69
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 460.00; the largest put concentration is 370.00. The most active strike by current volume is 380.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
49
360.00-10.2%
2
90
370.00-7.7%
7
63
380.00-5.2%
9
50
400.00-0.2%
21
39
410.002.3%
34
36
420.004.8%
36
32
430.007.3%
180
47
440.009.8%
9
33
450.0012.3%
46
9
460.0014.8%
610
65
470.0017.3%
140
9
480.0019.7%
40
1
500.0024.7%
114
0
510.0027.2%
505
8
520.0029.7%
113
0
540.0034.7%
108
0
570.0042.2%
104
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$547,558Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak460.00+$446,630
Negative peak360.00-$88,186
Nearest balance420.88Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
300.00-25.2%
+$35,525
310.00-22.7%
+$7,425
320.00-20.2%
-$4,501
330.00-17.7%
-$6,559
340.00-15.2%
-$21,170
350.00-12.7%
-$41,949
360.00-10.2%
-$88,186
370.00-7.7%
-$77,369
380.00-5.2%
-$80,808
390.00-2.7%
-$238
400.00-0.2%
-$43,758
410.002.3%
-$5,111
420.004.8%
-$17,339
430.007.3%
+$179,644
440.009.8%
-$46,593
450.0012.3%
+$25,040
460.0014.8%
+$446,630
470.0017.3%
+$55,398
480.0019.7%
+$67,950
490.0022.2%
-$55,184
500.0024.7%
+$72,120
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.46
16 Oct
22d
0.51
20 Nov
57d
0.50
18 Dec
85d
0.48
15 Jan
113d
0.50
19 Mar
176d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
440
450
460
470
480
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 16 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 12% of the time.
All saved readings · may overlap13%
Moves contained by pricing20%
Average absolute expiry move11.3%
17 Sep
Bullish · 42
-7.9% through expiry
9.3% priced · v2.0
16 Sep
Mixed · 41
-7.9% through expiry
6.8% priced · v2.0
15 Sep
Bullish · 35
-7.9% through expiry
6.1% priced · v2.0
14 Sep
Bullish · 36
-7.9% through expiry
5.6% priced · v2.0
11 Sep
Mixed · 40
-7.9% through expiry
4.7% priced · v2.0
10 Sep
Bullish · 36
-14.1% through expiry
7.7% priced · v2.0
9 Sep
Bullish · 53
-14.1% through expiry
6.6% priced · v2.0
4 Sep
Bullish · 36
-14.1% through expiry
6.6% priced · v2.0
3 Sep
Bullish · 46
-14.3% through expiry
7.0% priced · v2.0
1 Sep
Bullish · 50
-14.3% through expiry
7.6% priced · v2.0
28 Aug
Bullish · 51
-14.3% through expiry
8.5% priced · v2.0
25 Aug
Bullish · 48
-17.1% through expiry
9.3% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes64%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 24 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v3.0
- Contracts
- 558 / 558
- This saved reading predates the latest completed session.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Likely noise
Visible options activity is too thin or mixed to support a strong intent classification.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Likely noise matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $217,042 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-8
1W price-7.9%
Call premium57%
Put premium43%
Notional split
C 57% / P 43%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 54 contracts traded, $34,198 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$34,198
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 9 contracts traded, $26,505 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$26,505
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $24,790 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$24,790
Puts · 46-90 days · ATM
puts cluster with 5 contracts traded, $19,320 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$19,320
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 13 contracts traded, $19,290 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$19,290
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 36 completed sessions
Volume rank14th
Volume/OI rank28th
IV rank42th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close408.12
1W-7.9%
RS-6.7
Fair value+73.9%
Options pressure-8
Speculation17
Volatility69
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 7.7% · 15 sessions
67th
90d avg 8.9% · 35 sessions
54th
180d avg - · 35/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.52 · 16 sessions
75th
90d avg 0.53 · 36 sessions
42th
180d avg - · 36/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.55 · 16 sessions
88th
90d avg 0.79 · 36 sessions
83th
180d avg - · 36/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.05 · 16 sessions
44th
90d avg 0.06 · 36 sessions
28th
180d avg - · 36/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
13 Aug 10:43
Mixed
Pressure 1
Move 8.3%
14 Aug 10:41
Mixed
Pressure -10
Move 7.6%
17 Aug 10:26
Mixed
Pressure -15
Move 5.2%
18 Aug 11:03
Bearish
Pressure -50
Move 4.6%
19 Aug 11:01
Bullish
Pressure 19
Move 3.9%
20 Aug 11:08
Bullish
Pressure 51
Move 6.2%
21 Aug 10:41
Bearish
Pressure -49
Move 9.5%
24 Aug 10:08
Volatility
Pressure 40
Move 10.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 12
Strike165.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 9
Strike170.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 12
Strike175.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 13
Strike180.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike185.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike190.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 7
Strike195.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts148
Avg IV0.46
Put-call1.84
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.51
Put-call0.06
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts134
Avg IV0.50
Put-call2.00
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts98
Avg IV0.48
Put-call1.00
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts118
Avg IV0.50
Put-call4.33
Skew
Call/put IV balance
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.48
Skew0.05
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.52
Skew0.02
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.51
Skew0.03
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.50
Skew0.04
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.51
Skew0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCRS261016P00380000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike380.00
Volume31
OI63
IV0.46
ContractCRS261016C00410000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike410.00
Volume12
OI34
IV0.46
ContractCRS270115P00280000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike280.00
Volume10
OI7
IV0.54
ContractCRS261120C00410000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike410.00
Volume9
OI-
IV0.51
ContractCRS270115C00600000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike600.00
Volume8
OI43
IV0.44
ContractCRS261016P00320000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike320.00
Volume8
OI15
IV0.53
ContractCRS261016P00360000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike360.00
Volume6
OI49
IV0.51
ContractCRS261016C00420000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike420.00
Volume6
OI36
IV0.46
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.