Ticker Options Intelligence

ARDX options intelligence

Ardelyx Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 68 Market data through 16 Sep 2026 Checked 16 Sep 2026 19:08 · partial chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

ARDX currently carries volatility options pressure with a 68/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 18.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.08.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 18.2%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.08

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 4.97

Put-side skew

Trend fit 64

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -5.3%

RS -43.9

Expected move 18.2%
Put-call volume 4.97
Volume / OI 0.08
Reference IV 3.82
Max pain 4.00
Underlying 3.58
Nearest expiry 18 Sep 2026
Contracts 72

Research Brief

ARDX has a volatility chain read with 68/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 2.93–4.23; The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 4.00. The most active strike by current volume is 2.00.

Priced range2.93–4.23
Call concentration5.00
Put concentration4.00
Max pain reference4.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
  • Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 18 Sep

Options imply 2.93 to 4.23. Max pain at 4.00 sits inside that range, 11.7% above spot.

Spot Max pain
2.933.58 ± 0.654.23
Confirmation level

A close beyond 4.23 or below 2.93 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 68/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 78/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure78 × 42%
+33.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation42 × 22%
+9.2

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement64 × 26%
+16.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score68.4Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 4.00. The most active strike by current volume is 2.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
3
2.00-44.1%
12
0
3.00-16.2%
153
355
4.0011.7%
510
11
5.0039.7%
1953
0
6.0067.6%
1175
1
7.0095.5%
6
0
8.00123.5%
55
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Negative gamma proxy

Model-estimated Greeks · 99% coverage

Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile-$516,040Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak5.00+$32,988
Negative peak4.00-$513,535
Nearest balance4.94Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
1.00-72.1%
+$9
2.00-44.1%
+$263
3.00-16.2%
-$56,252
4.0011.7%
-$513,535
5.0039.7%
+$32,988
6.0067.6%
+$9,943
7.0095.5%
+$6,189
8.00123.5%
+$210
9.00151.4%
+$295
10.00179.3%
+$1,980
11.00207.3%
+$150
12.00235.2%
+$1,669
13.00263.1%
+$7
15.00319.0%
+$44
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

4.34× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

3.82 18 Sep 2d
1.63 16 Oct 30d
0.81 15 Jan 121d
0.88 16 Apr 212d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

3
4
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

11 matured · 4 directional

Across 4 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 0% of the time.

Directional follow-through0%
Moves contained by pricing36%
Average expiry move13.3%
18 Aug Bullish · 32 -4.2% through expiry 3.7% priced · v2.0
14 Aug Bullish · 35 -4.2% through expiry 4.9% priced · v2.0
12 Aug Volatility · 66 -2.8% through expiry 6.9% priced · v2.0
10 Aug Volatility · 67 -2.8% through expiry 10.6% priced · v2.0
7 Aug Volatility · 66 -2.8% through expiry 8.1% priced · v2.0
6 Aug Volatility · 55 -21.4% through expiry 16.7% priced · v2.0
5 Aug Bullish · 41 -21.4% through expiry 17.2% priced · v2.0
4 Aug Bullish · 37 -21.4% through expiry 17.2% priced · v2.0
3 Aug Mixed · 40 -21.4% through expiry 17.2% priced · v2.0
31 Jul Volatility · 60 -21.4% through expiry 14.6% priced · v2.0
30 Jul Volatility · 59 -22.7% through expiry 15.7% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Retained chain subset
Market date
16 Sep 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
72 / 72
  • 100% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

92/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.3M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-78
1W price-5.3%
Call premium16%
Put premium84%
Notional split C 16% / P 84% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.08 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 64/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ITM
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 11458 contracts traded, $1.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 80% of visible notional.
$1.0M
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 1021 contracts traded, $113,258 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$113,258
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 1124 contracts traded, $80,352 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$80,352
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM puts cluster with 108 contracts traded, $45,890 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$45,890
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM calls cluster with 39 contracts traded, $7,418 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$7,418

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

High anomaly

87

Current options activity is unusually hot versus this ticker's stored history.

Baseline: 26 completed sessions

Volume rank92th
Volume/OI rank69th
IV rank100th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close3.58
1W-5.3%
RS-43.9
Fair value-37.7%
Options pressure-78
Speculation42
Volatility96
Trend fit64

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 18.2% elevated
30d avg 10.3% · 14 sessions 93th
90d avg - · 26/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 26/60 sessions -
IV 3.82 elevated
30d avg 1.27 · 14 sessions 100th
90d avg - · 26/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 26/60 sessions -
Put-call 4.97 near normal
30d avg 9.29 · 14 sessions 64th
90d avg - · 26/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 26/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.08 near normal
30d avg 0.04 · 14 sessions 71th
90d avg - · 26/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 26/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:06 Bullish
Pressure 55
Move 15.4%
30 Jul 10:54 Bullish
Pressure 29
Move 14.9%
31 Jul 10:35 Volatility
Pressure -35
Move 15.7%
3 Aug 11:09 Volatility
Pressure 98
Move 14.6%
4 Aug 11:02 Mixed
Pressure -16
Move 17.2%
5 Aug 11:24 Bullish
Pressure 37
Move 17.2%
5 Aug 22:32 Bullish
Pressure 58
Move 17.2%
7 Aug 09:54 Volatility
Pressure 84
Move 16.7%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.00
Calls · V 37 · OI 12
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike3.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 153
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike4.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 510
Puts · V 13 · OI 355
Strike5.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 1953
Puts · V 4 · OI 11
Strike6.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1175
Puts · V 2 · OI 0
Strike7.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 6
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike8.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 55
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV3.82
Put-call0.36
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts23
Avg IV1.63
Put-call0.82
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts27
Avg IV0.81
Put-call34.29
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Contracts10
Avg IV0.88
Put-call0.03

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.47
Put IV4.53
Skew3.06
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.57
Put IV0.66
Skew0.09
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.85
Put IV0.79
Skew-0.07
16 Apr 2027Call IV premium
Call IV1.34
Put IV0.51
Skew-0.82

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractARDX261016C00012000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike12.00
Volume-
OI10
IV5.02
ContractARDX260918P00002000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike2.00
Volume-
OI3
IV4.53
ContractARDX261016C00015000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI1
IV3.73
ContractARDX270416C00002000
SideCall
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike2.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.48
ContractARDX261016P00014000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike14.00
Volume-
OI-
IV7.18
ContractARDX270115P00004000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike4.00
Volume11216
OI81072
IV0.54
ContractARDX270416C00003000
SideCall
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike3.00
Volume1006
OI1012
IV0.94
ContractARDX270416C00004000
SideCall
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike4.00
Volume555
OI657
IV1.34

Evidence context